{"id":14352,"date":"2020-02-03T15:55:00","date_gmt":"2020-02-03T15:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?post_type=forex-blog&#038;p=14352"},"modified":"2024-06-25T09:24:51","modified_gmt":"2024-06-25T06:24:51","slug":"aussie-looking-at-rba-for-some-support","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/ar\/aussie-looking-at-rba-for-some-support\/","title":{"rendered":"Aussie looking at RBA for some support"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Tomorrow during the Asian session (03:30, GMT) we get\u00a0<b>RBA\u2019s interest rate decision<\/b>\u00a0and the bank is expected to\u00a0<b>remain on hold at +0.75%<\/b>. Currently\u00a0<b>AUD OIS<\/b>\u00a0imply a probability of 76.25% for the bank to remain on hold while at the same time the rest seems to be favouring a 25bp rate cut. It should be noted though that the market seems to be pricing in\u00a0<b>a rate cut at the early 2nd quarter<\/b>\u00a0of the year. As unemployment remains at rather low levels and the\u00a0<b>CPI seems to be picking up<\/b>\u00a0a bit, we could see the bank maintaining a wait and see position. On the other-hand the GDP growth rate, along with the\u00a0<b>uncertainty created<\/b>\u00a0by the new Corona virus in China advises caution for the bank. Should the bank remain on hold we could see it maintaining a neutral tone in the accompanying statement possibly\u00a0<b>reiterating that the Australian economy<\/b>\u00a0has reached a gentle turning point, while the risks surrounding the\u00a0<b>global economy<\/b>\u00a0are tilted to the downside.\u00a0<b>AUD\/USD maintained a sideways motion<\/b>\u00a0on Friday and during the Asian session today just above the 0.6685 (S1) support line. As the pair broke the downward trendline incepted since the 29th of the January, we switch our bearish outlook for the pair, in favour of a sideways motion for the time being. Should the pair come under the selling interest of the market, we could see it breaking the 0.6685 (S1) support line and aim for the 0.6650 (S2) support level. On the flip side, should the pair\u2019s long positions be favoured by the market, we could see it breaking the 0.6723 (R1) resistance line and aim for higher virus.<\/p>\n<h3>Pound rallies as UK leaves the EU<\/h3>\n<p>The\u00a0<b>pound rallied against the USD<\/b>\u00a0on\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/en\/the-pound-gets-a-boost-from-boes-interest-rate-decision\"><b>Friday<\/b><\/a>\u00a0in a continuance of BoE\u2019s interest rate decision and as\u00a0<b>UK\u2019s divorce with the EU<\/b>\u00a0was made official at 23:00 GMT. It should be noted that\u00a0<b>market sentiment<\/b>\u00a0seems to be\u00a0<b>gauging the risks<\/b>\u00a0ahead for the pound due to the\u00a0<b>negotiations with the EU<\/b>\u00a0for the post Brexit relationship. The UK seems to be seeking a\u00a0<b>Canada style trade agreement<\/b>\u00a0until the end of the year. Media yesterday stated that UK\u2019s Prime Minister Johnson prepares to state in a speech that he is ready to\u00a0<b>quit talks with the EU<\/b>\u00a0about their future trade relationship, if he does not get what he wants. The main thorns in the negotiations seem to include issues such as the alignment of i<b>nternal regulations<\/b>\u00a0of the EU and the UK, the fisheries sector,\u00a0<b>cooperation on safety<\/b>\u00a0and how a possible deal is to be governed in the future. Should there be further hardening of the stance of the EU and\/or the UK we could see the\u00a0<b>pound weakening<\/b>. GBP\/USD rallied on Friday as it broke the 1.3170 (R1) resistance line, yet during today\u2019s Asian session corrected below it. We could see the pair correcting lower during the day, should the fundamentals of the pair continue to push the pound lower. Should the pair come under the control of the bulls once again, we could see it aiming if not breaking the 1.3170 (R1) resistance line and aim for 1.3340 (R2) resistance level. If the bears take control, we could see the pair breaking the 1.3015 (S1) support line and aim for lower grounds.<\/p>\n<h3>Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow<\/h3>\n<p>During the European session, we get from Germany the final manufacturing PMI, while in the American session we get the ISM Manufacturing PMI for January.<\/p>\n<h3>As for the rest of the week<\/h3>\n<p>On Tuesday we get the US factory orders growth rate for December and New Zealand\u2019s employment data for Q4. On Wednesday we get China\u2019s Caixin Services PMI for January and the US non-manufacturing PMI also for January. On Thursday we get from Australia the retail sales growth rate and Germany\u2019s industrial orders growth rate both for December. On Friday, we get China\u2019s trade data for January, Germany\u2019s industrial output growth rate, the US employment report as well as the Canadian employment data for the same month. Calendar follows<\/p>\n<p><b>AUD\/USD 4 Hour chart<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/shared.gighl.com\/Morning-Pictures-2020\/2-February-20\/03-02-2020\/AUDUSD%20H4%2002032020%20(002).PNG\" alt=\"support at zero point six six eight five and zero point six seven two three direction sideways\" \/><\/p>\n<p><b>Support: 0.6685 (S1), 0.6650 (S2), 0.6615 (S3)<br \/>\nResistance: 0.6723 (R1), 0.6755 (R2), 0.6790 (R3)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>GBP\/USD 4 Hour chart<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/shared.gighl.com\/Morning-Pictures-2020\/2-February-20\/03-02-2020\/GBPUSD%20H4%2002032020%20(002).PNG\" alt=\"support at one point three zero one five and resistance at one point three one seven zero direction downwards\" \/><\/p>\n<p><b>Support: 1.3015 (S1), 1.2820 (S2), 1.2600 (S3)<br \/>\nResistance: 1.3170 (R1), 1.3340 (R2), 1.3500 (R3)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/shared.gighl.com\/Morning-Pictures-2020\/2-February-20\/03-02-2020\/Bemchmark.png\" alt=\"Benchmark\/03-02-2020\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/shared.gighl.com\/Morning-Pictures-2020\/2-February-20\/03-02-2020\/Table.png\" alt=\"Table\/03-02-2020\" \/><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tomorrow during the Asian session (03:30, GMT) we get\u00a0RBA\u2019s interest rate decision\u00a0and the bank is expected to\u00a0remain on hold at<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_daim_seo_power":"","_daim_enable_ail":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Aussie looking at RBA for some support<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"RBA likely to hold rates at 0.75% amid mixed economic signals. 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