{"id":35883,"date":"2022-08-10T12:10:25","date_gmt":"2022-08-10T09:10:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=35883"},"modified":"2025-12-10T09:43:04","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T07:43:04","slug":"equities-outlook-lazy-stockmarkets-in-august","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/ar\/equities-outlook-lazy-stockmarkets-in-august\/","title":{"rendered":"Equities Outlook \u2013 Lazy stockmarkets in August?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>US<\/strong> <strong>stockmarkets<\/strong> tended to remain rather <strong>inactive<\/strong> since the <strong>start<\/strong> of the <strong>week<\/strong>, given also that we are in the <strong>holiday<\/strong> <strong>period<\/strong> for the <strong>US<\/strong> but also <strong>other<\/strong> <strong>parts<\/strong> of the <strong>world<\/strong>, yet <strong>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628<\/strong> could <strong>reemerge<\/strong> <strong>altering<\/strong> the <strong>direction<\/strong> of <strong>stocks<\/strong>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-july-s-us-employment-report-weakens-us-stockmarkets\"><strong><u>July\u2019s US employment report weakens US stockmarkets<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It should be noted that <strong>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628<\/strong> was on <strong>display<\/strong> on <strong>Friday<\/strong> as <strong>US stockmarkets<\/strong> <strong>retreated<\/strong> <strong>substantially<\/strong>. The <strong>driving<\/strong> <strong>force<\/strong> behind the <strong>movement<\/strong> was the <strong>release<\/strong> of the <strong>US<\/strong> <strong>employment<\/strong> <strong>report<\/strong> for <strong>July<\/strong>, which <strong>showed<\/strong> some <strong>solid<\/strong> <strong>rates<\/strong> \u0648 <strong>figures<\/strong> for the <strong>US employment market<\/strong> in the past <strong>month<\/strong>. We note that that the <strong>NFP<\/strong> <strong>figure<\/strong> did <strong>not<\/strong> <strong>drop<\/strong> as <strong>expected<\/strong>, instead <strong>jumped<\/strong> to <strong>twice<\/strong> the <strong>number<\/strong> of <strong>jobs<\/strong> the <strong>market<\/strong> <strong>anticipated<\/strong> to be <strong>released<\/strong>, reaching 528k. Also the <strong>unemployment<\/strong> <strong>rate<\/strong> <strong>ticked<\/strong> <strong>down<\/strong> <strong>implying<\/strong> that the <strong>US<\/strong> <strong>employment<\/strong> <strong>market<\/strong> remains <strong>tight<\/strong> and the <strong>average<\/strong> <strong>earnings<\/strong> <strong>growth<\/strong> <strong>rate<\/strong> <strong>remained<\/strong> <strong>unchanged<\/strong> instead of <strong>slowing<\/strong> <strong>down<\/strong> on a year on year level, as was <strong>expected<\/strong>, implying that <strong>wages<\/strong> are to continue to <strong>feed<\/strong> <strong>inflationary<\/strong> <strong>pressures<\/strong> in the <strong>US<\/strong> <strong>economy<\/strong>. So in a <strong>nutshell<\/strong>, the <strong>release<\/strong> <strong>showed<\/strong> that there is still, even <strong>marginally<\/strong>, the <strong>possibility<\/strong> for <strong>further<\/strong> <strong>tightening<\/strong> and the <strong>US employment market<\/strong> extended it\u2019s <strong>ability<\/strong> to <strong>create<\/strong> <strong>new jobs<\/strong> while also it\u2019s still <strong>feeding<\/strong> <strong>inflationary<\/strong> <strong>pressures<\/strong> in the <strong>US<\/strong> <strong>economy<\/strong>. On a <strong>monetary<\/strong> <strong>level<\/strong>, the <strong>release<\/strong> <strong>intensified<\/strong> <strong>market<\/strong> <strong>expectations<\/strong> for the <strong>Fed<\/strong> to <strong>continue<\/strong> to <strong>hike<\/strong> rates at a <strong>fast<\/strong> <strong>pace<\/strong>. Furthermore we would note that <strong>Fed<\/strong> <strong>Governor<\/strong> <strong>Bowman<\/strong> stated, that additional <strong>75 basis<\/strong> <strong>points rate hikes<\/strong> could be <strong>considered<\/strong> from the <strong>Fed<\/strong> in order to <strong>bring<\/strong> <strong>inflation<\/strong> <strong>down<\/strong> to 2%. Overall and given that the <strong>Fed\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>intentions<\/strong> to <strong>drain<\/strong> the <strong>market<\/strong> from <strong>excess<\/strong> <strong>liquidity<\/strong> remain <strong>unchanged<\/strong>, <strong>even<\/strong> with the <strong>risk<\/strong> of the <strong>US<\/strong> <strong>economy<\/strong> <strong>entering<\/strong> a <strong>recession<\/strong>, we may see the <strong>market<\/strong> <strong>sentiment<\/strong> remaining <strong>risk<\/strong> <strong>averse<\/strong>, which could <strong>weaken<\/strong> <strong>US<\/strong> <strong>stockmarkets<\/strong> as it would imply <strong>less<\/strong> <strong>investment<\/strong> <strong>opportunities<\/strong> and possibly even <strong>weaker<\/strong> <strong>earnings<\/strong> <strong>results<\/strong> in the <strong>coming<\/strong> <strong>months<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-july-s-us-cpi-rates-the-next-big-test\"><strong><u>July\u2019s US CPI rates the next big test<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The next <strong>big<\/strong> <strong>test<\/strong> is expected to be the release of <strong>the US CPI rates<\/strong> for <strong>July<\/strong> <strong>today<\/strong> the 10<sup>th<\/sup> of August. The <strong>headline<\/strong> <strong>rates<\/strong> are expected to <strong>slow<\/strong> <strong>down<\/strong> both on a <strong>month on month<\/strong> level as well as on a <strong>year on year<\/strong> level and reach 0.2% mom and 8.7% yoy respectively. Should the <strong>actual<\/strong> <strong>rates<\/strong> <strong>slow down<\/strong> as <strong>expected<\/strong>, it could <strong>signal<\/strong> a <strong>big<\/strong> <strong>win<\/strong> for the <strong>Fed<\/strong> and its <strong>efforts<\/strong> to <strong>curb<\/strong> <strong>inflationary<\/strong> <strong>pressures<\/strong>. On a <strong>market<\/strong> <strong>reaction<\/strong> level the <strong>release<\/strong>, <strong>if<\/strong> the <strong>forecasts<\/strong> are <strong>realised<\/strong>, could <strong>support<\/strong> <strong>US<\/strong> <strong>stockmarkets<\/strong> as it would imply that the <strong>pressure<\/strong> on the <strong>Fed<\/strong> to <strong>continue<\/strong> to <strong>hike<\/strong> <strong>rates<\/strong> at a <strong>fast pace<\/strong> could <strong>ease<\/strong>, given that the <strong>slow down<\/strong> may <strong>imply<\/strong> that <strong>inflation<\/strong> has <strong>peaked<\/strong> and may have started to <strong>roll<\/strong> <strong>back<\/strong> <strong>down<\/strong> to the <strong>bank\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>target<\/strong> of 2% yoy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-elon-musk-sells-tesla-shares\"><strong><u>Elon Musk sells Tesla shares<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In the <strong>current<\/strong> <strong>headlines<\/strong> we note the news that <strong>Elon<\/strong> <strong>Musk<\/strong> <strong>sold<\/strong> <strong>7.92 million<\/strong> <strong>Tesla<\/strong> <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645<\/strong> worth $6.88 billion. It seems that the <strong>sale<\/strong> was <strong>related<\/strong> to the <strong>Twitter<\/strong> <strong>deal<\/strong>, as when asked if he was <strong>done<\/strong> <strong>selling<\/strong> <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645<\/strong> of <strong>Tesla<\/strong> and has any <strong>intentions<\/strong> to <strong>buyback<\/strong> <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645<\/strong> he replied that \u201cYes. In the (hopefully <strong>unlikely<\/strong>) <strong>event<\/strong> that <strong>Twitter<\/strong> <strong>forces<\/strong> this <strong>deal<\/strong> to <strong>close<\/strong> and some <strong>equity<\/strong> <strong>partners<\/strong> don\u2019t come <strong>through<\/strong>, it is <strong>important<\/strong> to <strong>avoid<\/strong> an <strong>emergency<\/strong> <strong>sale<\/strong> of <strong>Tesla<\/strong> <strong>stock<\/strong>.\u201d. It\u2019s important to note that the <strong>share<\/strong> <strong>sale<\/strong> was <strong>performed<\/strong> between the 5<sup>th<\/sup> and 9<sup>th<\/sup> of August according to <strong>SEC<\/strong> <strong>filings<\/strong>, as <strong>reported<\/strong> by <strong>CNBC<\/strong>. It should also be noted that <strong>Elon<\/strong> <strong>Musk<\/strong> had <strong>stated<\/strong> near the <strong>end<\/strong> of <strong>last<\/strong> <strong>April<\/strong> that <strong>no<\/strong> <strong>further<\/strong> <strong>Tesla<\/strong> shares are planned to be <strong>sold<\/strong>. The <strong>inconsistency<\/strong> is a bit <strong>worrying<\/strong> and may <strong>strengthen<\/strong> <strong>expectations<\/strong> that <strong>Twitter<\/strong> will be <strong>able<\/strong> to <strong>enforce<\/strong> the <strong>deal<\/strong> which if <strong>actually<\/strong> so <strong>could<\/strong> <strong>provide<\/strong> some <strong>further<\/strong> <strong>support<\/strong> for its <strong>share<\/strong> <strong>price<\/strong>, after the <strong>boost<\/strong> it got on the 5<sup>th<\/sup> of August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><u>US 30 Cash, H4 Chart<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"292\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/us30cash-10-8-2022.png\" alt=\"EU\/USD technical analysis chart illustrating stockmarket performance and price trends.\" class=\"wp-image-35884\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 32400 (S1), 31400 (S2), 30150 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 33110 (R1), 34150 (R2), 35300 (R3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We decided to keep the <strong>\u062a\u0642\u0646\u064a<\/strong> <strong>analysis<\/strong> of the <strong>Dow Jones<\/strong> for <strong>comparison<\/strong> <strong>reasons<\/strong> in regards to our last report, yet made some <strong>slight<\/strong> <strong>re-adjustments<\/strong> of the <strong>support<\/strong> <strong>levels<\/strong> to better reflect the <strong>boundaries<\/strong> set by the <strong>index\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>movement<\/strong>.&nbsp; Overall the <strong>index<\/strong> maintained its <strong>sideways<\/strong> <strong>motion<\/strong> between the 33110 (R1) <strong>resistance<\/strong> <strong>line<\/strong> and the 32400 (S1) <strong>support<\/strong> <strong>level<\/strong>. It should be noted that the <strong>index<\/strong> in its <strong>sideways<\/strong> <strong>motion<\/strong> <strong>broke<\/strong> the <strong>upward<\/strong> <strong>trendline<\/strong> incepted since the 14<sup>th<\/sup> of July, <strong>forcing<\/strong> us to <strong>switch<\/strong> our <strong>bullish<\/strong> <strong>outlook<\/strong> in favour of a <strong>sideways<\/strong> <strong>movement<\/strong> currently, between the <strong>prementioned<\/strong> <strong>levels<\/strong> and change our <strong>outlook<\/strong> we would <strong>require<\/strong> a <strong>clear<\/strong> <strong>breaking<\/strong> of either of them. Please also note that the <strong>RSI<\/strong> <strong>indicator<\/strong> is <strong>running<\/strong> <strong>along<\/strong> the <strong>reading<\/strong> of <strong>50<\/strong> also implying a rather <strong>indecisive<\/strong> <strong>market<\/strong>, while the <strong>Bollinger<\/strong> <strong>bands<\/strong> have <strong>narrowed<\/strong> \u0648 <strong>levelled<\/strong> <strong>out<\/strong>, also implying for the time being a <strong>sideways<\/strong> <strong>motion<\/strong>. Yet should the <strong>bulls<\/strong> take over, we may see the index clearly breaking the <strong>33110<\/strong> (R1) <strong>resistance<\/strong> <strong>line<\/strong> and take aim for the <strong>34150<\/strong> (R2) <strong>level<\/strong> that has <strong>reversed<\/strong> the index\u2019s <strong>upward<\/strong> <strong>motion<\/strong> on the 5<sup>th<\/sup> of May. On the <strong>flip<\/strong> <strong>side<\/strong> should the <strong>bears<\/strong> <strong>dominate<\/strong> the <strong>index\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>direction<\/strong>, we may see it breaking the&nbsp; <strong>32400<\/strong> (S1) <strong>support<\/strong> line which forms the <strong>lower<\/strong> <strong>boundary<\/strong> of the <strong>current<\/strong> <strong>sideways<\/strong> <strong>motion<\/strong> and take aim of the <strong>31400<\/strong> (S2) <strong>support<\/strong> <strong>line<\/strong> that provided <strong>resistance<\/strong> on the 8<sup>th<\/sup> of July, yet as the <strong>price<\/strong> <strong>action<\/strong> has risen above it, has switched roles into being a <strong>support<\/strong> <strong>level<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:reseach_team@ironfx.com\">research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0625\u062e\u0644\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0624\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0629:<br>\u0644\u0627 \u062a\u064f\u0639\u062f \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0646\u0635\u064a\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631\u060c \u0648\u0625\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u064f\u0639\u062f \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0635\u0644\u0627\u064b \u062a\u0633\u0648\u064a\u0642\u064a\u064b\u0627. \u0644\u0627 \u062a\u062a\u062d\u0645\u0644 IronFX \u0623\u064a \u0645\u0633\u0624\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0623\u064a \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0623\u0648 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0641 \u062b\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0629 \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0635\u0644.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US stockmarkets tended to remain rather inactive since the start of the week, given also that we are in the<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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