{"id":57508,"date":"2023-03-08T16:18:33","date_gmt":"2023-03-08T14:18:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=57508"},"modified":"2025-10-13T14:35:06","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T11:35:06","slug":"equities-outlook-hawkish-powell-hurts-us-stock-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/ar\/equities-outlook-hawkish-powell-hurts-us-stock-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Equities report: Hawkish Powell hurts US stock markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>US stock markets<\/strong> fell sharply yesterday, snapping their three day winning streak, reacting to <strong>Fed<\/strong> <strong>Chair Powell\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>hawkish<\/strong> <strong>narrative<\/strong> which opened the door for larger magnitude hike to tame stubbornly <strong>persistent inflationary pressures<\/strong>. In this report we aim to present the recent fundamental and economic news releases that impacted the US stock markets, look ahead at the upcoming events that could affect their performance and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-powell-s-testimony-shakes-the-markets\"><strong>Powell\u2019s testimony shakes the markets<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesterday, <strong>Fed Chair Powell<\/strong> testified before the <strong>Senate Banking Committee<\/strong> and his <strong>hawkish<\/strong> remarks reverberated across the <strong>markets<\/strong>. The <strong>Chair<\/strong> cautioned that interest rates are likely to head higher than what <strong>central bank<\/strong> policymakers had anticipated, opening in sense the door for a <strong>larger magnitude rate hike<\/strong> in the upcoming March meeting. &#8220;The data from January on <strong>employment<\/strong>, <strong>consumer<\/strong> <strong>spending<\/strong>, <strong>manufacturing<\/strong> <strong>production<\/strong>\u060c \u0648 <strong>inflation<\/strong> have partly reversed the softening trends that we had seen in the data just a month ago&#8221; stated the <strong>Chairman<\/strong> and added \u201cif the totality of the data were to indicate that faster <strong>tightening<\/strong> is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the <strong>pace of rate hikes<\/strong>\u201d. The Chair has also underscored the bank\u2019s resolute commitment to its <strong>dual mandate<\/strong> obligations, ensuring <strong>price stability<\/strong> and facilitate <strong>favorable employment market conditions<\/strong> and through his comments, analysts picked up that he appears to be willing to sacrifice growth and employment in exchange for price stability, since the <strong>US labour market<\/strong> has consistently defied expectations for deterioration over the past few months. As the bank acknowledged that it is still far away from its goal and a higher <strong>terminal rate<\/strong> is now a reality, the markets rushed reassess their outlooks and a shift in projections took place in the <strong>swaps markets<\/strong>. <strong>Money markets<\/strong> started to reprice the probabilities that the <strong>Fed<\/strong> may pursue a <strong>50 basis points<\/strong> hike rather than the 25 bps that was initially expected in the March meeting. The FFF prior to the release implied a 77% probability for a 25 basis points hikes scenario, whereas currently the 50-basis points hike scenario amasses a 64% probability. Moreover, money markets are pricing in a <strong>higher terminal rate<\/strong> also above the 5.25-5.5% range with an <strong>overwhelming majority<\/strong> betting that a 5.5-5.75% level will be reached at June\u2019s meeting. Reflecting the risks arising from the probabilities for a higher interest rate environment for longer, <strong>bond yields<\/strong> surged sharply higher yesterday with the 2-year yield hitting year-to-date highs, breaching the 5% level. The <strong>benchmark 10-year treasury<\/strong> <strong>yield<\/strong> has also climbed higher, above the 4% once again, approaching a three-month high. The overall picture drawn from the steepest <strong>yield curve inversion<\/strong> since 1981 singled that the <strong>bond markets<\/strong> have picked up and acknowledged the dangers of a self-induced <strong>recession<\/strong> by the <strong>Fed\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>overtightening<\/strong> <strong>efforts<\/strong>. Hence, markets now brace for a higher interest rate regime which could inadvertently push companies already in distress, over the edge, increasing <strong>bankruptcy<\/strong> \u0648 <strong>insolvency<\/strong> <strong>risk<\/strong> noticeably. Overall, the calls for <strong>tighter financial conditions<\/strong> ahead leave <strong>equities<\/strong> negatively predisposed for further <strong>weakness<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-crucial-us-employment-report-the-next-test-for-equities\"><strong>Crucial US employment report the next test for equities<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This Friday the market will be forced to grapple with the latest <strong>employment<\/strong> results for the month of February, following last month\u2019s <strong>blowout report<\/strong> that drove traders to downsize their <strong>overoptimistic speculative bets<\/strong> for a <strong>less hawkish Fed<\/strong>, which yielded significant inflows towards the <strong>greenback<\/strong> \u0648 <strong>capped<\/strong> <strong>gains for US stock markets<\/strong>. According to forecasts the market expects the <strong>Non-Farm Payrolls<\/strong> figure to ease to 200k this month, following the incredulous 517k newly created jobs in the month of January. Should the actual figure match the expectation we may see the <strong>dollar weaken<\/strong> and in contrast <strong>equities<\/strong> <strong>receiving<\/strong> a <strong>boost<\/strong>. Worth pointing out nonetheless, is that the 200k employment figure expectation falls in line with historical averages, implying that the <strong>US labour market<\/strong> remains <strong>robust<\/strong> and showcases its ability to stand strong amidst a <strong>high interest rate environment<\/strong>. Turning our attention towards the <strong>unemployment<\/strong> <strong>rate<\/strong> expectation, the market consensus sees the rate holding steady at 3.4%, near five-decade lows, which validates the view for a <strong>resilient US employment force<\/strong>. In regards to the year-on-year average hourly earnings rate, the market forecasts an acceleration of the rate to the 4.7% from the 4.4% of the prior month and should the actual rate meet expectations that would practically reaffirm that <strong>inflationary pressures<\/strong> pose a systemic risk in the US economy, providing therefore support for the <strong>dollar<\/strong> and placing pressure on <strong>equities<\/strong>. Overall, the results are expected to provide support in the <strong>Fed\u2019s<\/strong> case for pressing on with more rate hikes and of <strong>larger magnitude<\/strong>, since the employment market has yet to show any cracks, allowing the <strong>central bank<\/strong> to focus solely at keeping the <strong>inflationary monster<\/strong> suppressed and under control, disallowing it from becoming deeply entrenched in the <strong>US economy<\/strong>. Should we see the <strong>NFP<\/strong> figure exceed expectations, that would reinforce the view for a <strong>hawkish policy response<\/strong> from the <strong>Fed<\/strong> and hurt the <strong>US stock markets.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-technical-analysis\"><strong><u>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0646\u064a<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-us100-4hour-chart\"><strong>#US100 4Hour Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"455\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-38.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-57509\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 11850 (S1), 11550 (S2), 11250 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 12400 (R1), 12750 (R2), 13200 (R3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at #<strong>US100<\/strong> 4-hour chart we observe the <strong>index<\/strong> extending its <strong>sideways<\/strong> <strong>motion<\/strong> between the 12400 (R1) resistance and 11850 (S1) support levels over the past two weeks, after it broke above the <strong>descending trendline<\/strong> incepted since the 15<sup>th<\/sup> of February. We maintain our <strong>sideways<\/strong> bias and supporting our case is the <strong>RSI<\/strong> <strong>indicator<\/strong> below our 4-hour chart which register a reading of 48, showcasing <strong>indecision<\/strong> surrounding the <strong>index<\/strong>. Adding to our case towards <strong>consolidation<\/strong> near the current level is the merging of the price action with both the 100 and 200 period <strong>moving<\/strong> <strong>average<\/strong> lines. We note nonetheless that the results of the <strong>NFP<\/strong> report on Friday alongside today\u2019s speech by <strong>Fed Chair Powell<\/strong>, could distort is <strong>sideways<\/strong> motion and create <strong>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0628<\/strong>. Should the <strong>bulls<\/strong> take initiative, we may see the break above the 12400 (R1) <strong>resistance<\/strong> level and the move near the 12750 (R2) <strong>resistance<\/strong> <strong>barrier<\/strong>. Should the <strong>bears<\/strong> dominate over the index direction we may see the break below the 11850 (S1) support level and the move near the 11550 (S2) <strong>support<\/strong> <strong>base<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\">If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at <a href=\"mailto:research_team@ironfx.com\" target=\"_self\">research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0625\u062e\u0644\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0624\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0629:<br>\u0644\u0627 \u062a\u064f\u0639\u062f \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0646\u0635\u064a\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0648 \u062a\u0648\u0635\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631\u060c \u0648\u0625\u0646\u0645\u0627 \u062a\u064f\u0639\u062f \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0635\u0644\u0627\u064b \u062a\u0633\u0648\u064a\u0642\u064a\u064b\u0627. \u0644\u0627 \u062a\u062a\u062d\u0645\u0644 IronFX \u0623\u064a \u0645\u0633\u0624\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0639\u0646 \u0623\u064a \u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646\u0627\u062a \u0623\u0648 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0642\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0623\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0641 \u062b\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0629 \u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0635\u0644.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US stock markets fell sharply yesterday, snapping their three day winning streak, reacting to Fed Chair Powell\u2019s hawkish narrative which<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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