{"id":96203,"date":"2024-12-10T16:01:49","date_gmt":"2024-12-10T14:01:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=96203"},"modified":"2024-12-10T16:01:51","modified_gmt":"2024-12-10T14:01:51","slug":"gold-outlook-could-the-november-us-inflation-report-and-china-alter-golds-direction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/ar\/gold-outlook-could-the-november-us-inflation-report-and-china-alter-golds-direction\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Could the November US inflation report and China alter gold\u2019s direction?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold\u2019s price appears to have had some slight<\/a> bullish tendencies yesterday and during today\u2019s Asian session, yet nothing as convincing yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In today\u2019s report we intend to have a look at the upcoming release of the US Inflation report for November, China\u2019s intentions and geopolitical issues in the Middle East, all on a fundamental level for the gold market. For a rounder view, we conclude the report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart<\/a>. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

November\u2019s US Inflation data<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We make a start with US financial releases by noting that the release of the US employment report for November on Friday showed a hotter than expected US employment market as the NFP figure rose surpassing market expectations, yet the tick up of the unemployment rate may have clipped the market\u2019s enthusiasm. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data had little effect on gold\u2019s price at the time of the release, implying that a trader should look for other fundamental issues. Yet the release of the November US inflation report may not be the same case as gold is also used as a hedging trading instrument against inflation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Please note that for the time being the headline rate is expected to tick up and the core rate to remain unchanged at relatively high levels, both on a year on year level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the actual rates meet their respective forecasts, we may see the Fed\u2019s stance turning more hawkish given also the strong US employment report for the same month. Should we see the US CPI rates showing a persistence or even an acceleration of inflationary pressures in the US economy we may see the release weighing on gold\u2019s price and vice versa. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also please note that we see the case for the negative correlation of gold with the USD as having been interrupted. Its\u2019 characteristic that gold\u2019s price remained stable on Friday while the USD rose, while yesterday and during todays\u2019 Asian and early European session both trading instruments were on the rise. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also US yields since our last report dropped up until yesterday, also highlighting the interruption of the negative correlation of gold with US yields, once again implying that gold traders should elsewhere for fundamental factors affecting gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s buys gold<\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Media highlighted in the past few days China\u2019s gold buying spree. According to media, the People\u2019s Bank of China on Saturday said it bought 160,000 fine troy ounces in November, ending a six-month pause in purchases. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The PBOC had been a major buyer of bullion since late-2022. The news took the markets by surprise as a possible renewal of China\u2019s interest in gold buying could alter fundamentally the gold market, as another issue that has to be factored in any prognosis about gold\u2019s price. It should be noted that PBoC is from now on expected to maintain an \u201cappropriately loose\u201d monetary policy and the Chinese government a more proactive fiscal policy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore we also note that China as launched an anti-trust probe into Nvidia with the FT stating that the investigation into Nvidia (#NVIDIA) was opened for suspected violations of the country\u2019s anti-monopoly law. The investigation in our view, is a retaliatory measure by the Chinese Government as tensions between the USA and China over a potential trade war under the incoming Trump administration intensify. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall should we see frictions in the relationships of the two super powers escalating, we may see also safe have inflows for the precious metal<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geopolitics of the Middle East<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the Middle East we mark the end of an era, as the Assad regime in Syria, fell after substantial pressure from various rebel groups and Israel. Former President Assad has fled the country and is now in Russia which has given political asylum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The situation in Syria as such remains highly fluid, as no fraction seems to be having the upper hand clearly throughout the country. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kurdish forces, the Syrian National Army backed by Turkey , a mixture of antigovernment forces among which the HTS (formerly characterised as a terrorist group) seems to stand out, all are fighting for partial control of specific territories. At the same time, Israel\u2019s Airforce is pounding positions in Syria, with more than 200 attacks being made.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the time being we see the case for instability in Syria to be enhanced, which in turn could support gold\u2019s price by creating safe haven inflows for the shiny metal. On the flip side should we see the situation slowly stabilizing we may see such easing of market worries weighing on gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD 4H Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"XAU\/USD<\/figure>\n\n\n\n