Brent futures rose $3.07, or 3.1%, reaching $103.28 per barrel by 0734 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude added $3.35, or 3.6%, to $96.85.

In the prior session, Brent futures had fallen 2.8%, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 5.3% after some vessels managed to pass through the critical strait.

Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz disruption raises global concerns

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital passage for about 20% of the ⁠world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade. Ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran has significantly disrupted traffic, raising concerns about supply shortages, higher energy prices, and inflation.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said, “The risks remain stark: It only takes one Iranian militia to fire a missile or plant a mine on a passing tanker to reignite the entire situation.”

Diplomatic tensions affect security measures

Several U.S. allies turned down Donald Trump’s request to send warships to escort shipping through the strait, drawing criticism from the U.S. president, who accused Western partners of ingratitude despite decades of support.

Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said oil markets remain focused on the duration of the conflict and the scale of supply disruption at Hormuz.

Supply risks amplified by recent incidents

Oil traders saw prices climb further after a fire broke out at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone following a drone attack during morning trade in Asia. No injuries were reported.

Middle East crude benchmarks have hit record highs, ranking among the world’s priciest oil worldwide, increasing pressure on global energy markets. Traders attribute the price ⁠spike to a reduced supply available for delivery.

The effective closure of the strait has forced the United Arab Emirates, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ third-largest producer, to cut production by more than half, according to Reuters sources.

Oil prices outlook: forecasts and policy responses

Oil prices could continue to rise, with WTI possibly reaching $124 a barrel, according to OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

To ease energy costs, the head of the International Energy Agency ⁠suggested that member countries release additional oil, supplementing the 400 million barrels they have already agreed to draw from strategic reserves.

Oil prices impact spreads beyond crude markets

Refined fuels face sharper price increases

Analysts say the current shock is hitting refined fuels even harder than crude itself with refined products experiencing sharper price jumps due to supply shortages. According to Goldman Sachs, products such as diesel and jet are seeing sharper price increases due to supply constraints.

“Prices have rallied much more for many refined products than for crude,” analysts Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven said in a note, according to Bloomberg. They added that shortages of medium-heavy crude are putting production of diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil at risk.

Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at the Sydney-based research firm MST Marquee, noted that mixed signals on the war’s duration are adding to volatility, with markets reacting more to developments on the ground.

Oil prices and global supply shifts

Alternative supply and market limits

India has resumed purchasing Russian oil after temporarily halting imports due to US sanctions on Moscow’s major oil producers. The 30-day waiver runs until early April, but it can be extended by the Trump administration.

“Russian oil can help cushion a short-term supply shock, but its usefulness depends on two uncertain conditions: that Russian barrels remain available and that the discount remains meaningful,” energy expert Tatiana Mitrova, a fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, told Al Jazeera.

In theory, the estimated 120-140 million barrels of Russian oil reported to be “on the water” could cover weeks of India’s imports, Mitrova said. However, only a fraction can be redirected quickly due to logistical and refinery constraints.

At the same time, China could compete for the same barrels, narrowing discounts and pushing prices closer to global benchmarks if disruptions continue.

“Russian oil is a useful tactical buffer, but not a durable shield,” she added.

Limits to replacing Middle East supply

Analyst Abhi Rajendran said the current disruption is larger than past shocks, and the volume of oil and gas flowing from the Middle East blocked cannot be quickly replaced.

He added that other major oil and gas exporters, such as the US and Norway, would need months to increase output, and only inventory releases can partially bridge the gap.

Governments respond with energy-saving measures

Countries across Asia are introducing measures to manage shortages as the region absorbs most of the disruption.

Sri Lanka has implemented a QR code-based fuel rationing system limiting weekly purchases, while Bangladesh briefly imposed caps on fuel sales to prevent panic buying before easing them as reserves stabilised.

Governments are also encouraging reduced energy use. Thailand has asked civil servants to cut electricity consumption by limiting air conditioning and adopting lighter office attire.

Remote work and demand reduction

Several countries, including Pakistan and Vietnam, are promoting remote work to reduce fuel demand, while Pakistan has introduced a four-day working week for government employees.

Academic Fengqi You said remote work can reduce oil demand, particularly by cutting commuting, but its overall impact remains limited.

“Work-from-home is useful for short-term crises and long-term energy planning,” he said, adding that it is only one part of a broader energy strategy.

Supply chain pressures and alternative routes

Iraq is exploring alternative routes to transport its crude, including restarting flows from Kirkuk to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

However, negotiations with Kurdish authorities have stalled, delaying progress. With shipments disrupted and revenues under pressure, the search for alternative logistics highlights the broader strain on global energy supply chains.

DISCLAIMER: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but is instead a marketing communication.

The post Oil prices jump 3% as global markets react to Iran war appeared first on Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX.

On Tuesday, spot gold rebounded from earlier losses that had put it on track for a record 10th straight drop.

War-driven inflation pressures shift investor behaviour

The ongoing Middle East crisis has pushed energy prices higher, increasing inflation risks across global markets.

Investors are moving away from gold – despite its traditional safe-haven status—and reallocating funds into other assets.

Like the rest of the financial markets, gold has been pulled back and forth by a constant stream of war headlines. Prices tumbled as much as 8.8% on Monday before paring much of the drop.

Fighting continues, even as President Donald Trump said talks to end the conflict are underway. Meanwhile, a report by the Wall Street Journal suggested that US allies in the Persian Gulf could be drawn further into the conflict, adding to the uncertainty.

Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure remain key risks

No one really knows how the negotiations will play out, or whether ships will be able to move freely through the Strait of Hormuz in the weeks ahead. Repairs to damaged oil and gas infrastructure could take months, keeping global energy supply under pressure.

This uncertainty continues to fuel inflation expectations, while interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and other central banks weigh on non-yielding precious metals like gold.

Rising yields put pressure on gold

Gold is also being dragged down by a quieter but powerful force: rising real yields.

Inflation-protected government bonds now offer higher yields, while gold—by its nature—doesn’t pay anything. When investors can earn more elsewhere, holding gold becomes a harder sell.

Historical patterns repeat

A similar pattern unfolded after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Gold price initially jumped as investors rushed to a safe-haven commodity, but the rally didn’t last.

As energy prices surged and the shock spread through global markets, inflation picked up—eventually dragging gold into a decline that lasted for months.

“Gold’s price correction has seen a steeper-than-usual underperformance,” said Suki Cooper, global head of commodities research at Standard Chartered Plc, adding that it is “not unusual for gold to endure downside pressure for four to six weeks following a period of extreme distress, as gold proves to be a liquid asset in times of need.”

Investors cash in on winners

Another clear trend in this market: investors are selling what’s performing well.

Gold is part of that, but it’s not alone. Silver has fallen even further behind, while Bitcoin has moved in the opposite direction, posting gains.

“What you tend to see in a big crisis like this is investors selling heavily positioned, well-performing assets in order to fund margin calls for underperforming assets — equities, bonds, whatever,” said Peter Kinsella, global head of forex strategy at Union Bancaire Privee UBP SA.

Gold performed in a similar manner in previous market shocks, he said. “Short-term shifts in pricing are all about positioning. Longer term it’s all with the monetary drivers. And that hasn’t changed.”

Gold may have slipped in recent weeks, but it had previously been on a strong run before the conflict began.

That rally was driven by a mix of geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainty, and steady buying from central banks. But the current surge in energy costs is starting to complicate that picture.

Many of the countries that have been stockpiling gold are also major energy importers. With oil and gas bills rising sharply, they now have less cash available to channel back into gold purchases.

Latest market moves

Spot gold edged up 0.4% to $4,425.18 an ounce by 10:14 a.m. in London.

Silver outperformed with a 1.3% gain to $70.06 an ounce, while platinum also moved higher and palladium held steady. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%.

Gold sees its biggest decline since 1983

Gold has had a brutal week. The metal that spent all of 2025 breaking records just posted its worst seven-day performance in more than forty years.

By March 20, it had fallen 11% to $4,497 an ounce – a drop of more than $500 from where it started the week and a loss of over 14% since the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran began in late February.

Echoes of 1983

The last time gold fell this sharply in a single week was 1983, when Middle Eastern oil producers offloaded their gold reserves after oil revenues collapsed.

History repeats, but the story is different

The parallels to today are striking and worrying. Once again, a Middle East crisis is driving the sell-off. But this time the mechanics are not the same as in the 1980s.

This time, the decline is fuelled by a combination of rising real yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and investors liquidating positions in response to geopolitical uncertainty.

Conclusion: Why gold has fallen amid Middle East tensions

Gold, the classic safe-haven asset, would normally shine during crises, yet since the Middle East conflict began, it has declined each week. The sharp fall is driven by a combination of factors: rising real yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and investor liquidation in response to geopolitical uncertainty.

Higher crude oil prices have pushed inflation expectations upward, limiting the Federal Reserve’s room to cut rates, while gold price—offering no interest—becomes less attractive compared to Treasury bonds. Together, these forces have created a powerful headwind that outweighs the traditional safe-haven demand for gold.

“This sharp decline in gold reflects a confluence of factors: large-scale risk asset liquidations, a hawkish shift in Fed expectations, and a stronger dollar,” explained Pepperstone strategist Dilin Wu. She described the move as “a pricing logic adjustment rather than a reversal of the long-term trend.”

Investors should recognise that this decline reflects short-term market adjustments rather than a reversal of gold’s long-term trend. Monitoring ongoing developments in the Middle East, energy markets, and interest rates will be essential for understanding gold’s trajectory in the coming months.

DISCLAIMER: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but is instead a marketing communication.

The post Gold price rebounds after historic March 2026 drop amid Middle East conflict appeared first on Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX.

The largest digital token ended Sunday down 2.6% for the week, a brief gain that pushed it near $71,000 on Saturday. Bitcoin fell a further 2.1% to $67,360 as of 10:45 a.m. in New York on Monday, while the second-largest cryptocurrency Ether fell to $1,948.

Bitcoin has plunged more than 40% from its all-time peak near $127,000 in October, struggling to latch onto rallies in gold or equities. According to data from CoinGecko, the broader crypto market has lost nearly $2 trillion in value over the same period.

Analysts debate whether a bottom is in

“The big question on everyone’s mind is whether crypto has bottomed out or if there’s still more downside on the horizon,” Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, wrote in a note.

Sentiment around digital-asset treasury holdings and money flowing into or out of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds will be key indicators to watch, he said.

October selloff sparks extended decline

Bitcoin’s downturn began with a major selloff on October 10, when billions of dollars in crypto positions were liquidated. Since then, investors have withdrawn over $8.4 billion from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Analysts at Standard Chartered, who have generally been bullish about the cryptocurrency’s outlook, have reduced their year-end 2026 forecast by a third.

The bank expects Bitcoin to fall further to $50,000, before recovering to close the year around $100,000. That’s down from an earlier forecast of $150,000.

Still, some analysts say the technical picture suggests there is still potential for a recovery.

Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Australia, said: “As long as Bitcoin holds above the 200-week moving average at $58,239 — a level it successfully defended two weeks ago — there remains scope for a recovery toward initial resistance at $73,000 to $75,000.”

Bitcoin tracks equity weakness

Bitcoin dropped ahead of the US market open following a three-day break, reflecting weakness in equity futures as investors adopted a more cautious stance on the macroeconomic outlook.

On Tuesday 17 February, the crypto fell as much as 1.7% to $67,6586. Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.9% and S&P 500 contracts lost 0.6%, pointing to a softer start for Wall Street. Bitcoin, which has traded like a high-beta tech proxy in recent months, tracked the move lower.

Market participants are weighing rising geopolitical tensions around Iran along renewed discussions over whether artificial intelligence could have economic effects beyond the tech sector. The outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts is also back in focus following last week’s inflation data.

ETF outflows and fragile sentiment

Flows continue to weigh on the market. US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded a fourth consecutive week of net outflows, with $360 million withdrawn last week.

Investor sentiment remains fragile. On Monday 16 February, CryptoQuant’s Fear and Greed Index stood at 10 out of 100 on Monday, firmly in “extreme fear” territory.

“Macro news has been closely correlated with crypto’s risk profile the last 12 months,” said Paul Howard, senior director at market maker Wincent. He expects consolidation as Bitcoin searches for fresh sentiment drivers, adding that a US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs due Friday could prove more consequential than routine Fed minutes or inflation prints.

Investors are also questioning whether Bitcoin has created a stable floor. Many view $60,000 as a key support level, but that may not hold if risk appetite continues to decline, said Robin Singh, chief executive officer of crypto tax platform Koinly.

“One macro wobble, another wave of uncertainty, or even just sustained chop in the mid-$60,000s could easily tip this into a sharper flush back into the $50,000s. This doesn’t have the same full capitulation feel we’ve seen at true cycle bottoms in the past,” Singh said.

Weekend rally fades

Over the weekend, Bitcoin experienced a brief rally toward $70,000, but mild profit-taking followed. Many traders decided to lock in their gains instead of holding longer. This caused the price to decline slightly. Ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies also showed similar behaviour.

Futures market data indicates that liquidations have recently totalled more than $157 million. Most were long positions, which means that traders who expected price increases had losses. Such liquidations often increase volatility and make prices go up quickly. It also shows that many market participants were too aggressive.

Corporate exposure to Bitcoin volatility

Corporate news is also impacting the crypto space. Some Bitcoin-holding companies reported higher operating profits because of income strategies linked to BTC.

At the same time, other companies reported non-cash losses because of price changes. This mixed performance shows that corporate balance sheets are more sensitive to digital asset movements.

Dollar moves and risk appetite

Global markets are sending mixed signals right now. Currency moves, especially the US dollar, are having an effect on Bitcoin’s short-term price. A weaker dollar can help Bitcoin, but crypto investors are still cautious and hesitant to take big risks.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in “extreme fear”, which means that many traders are worried about what will happen next. Prices can change quickly when fear is high. Strong, cautious optimism can lead to a rebound, but this doesn’t happen very often.

On-chain data shows that BTC whales are not selling in large amounts. Transaction levels and miner activity are steady, which suggests the network itself is still stable even though prices are going up and down. Still, short-term momentum is weak now.

Bitcoin price prediction and outlook

Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, reflecting the effect of recent dips. A price of $68,348 shows uncertainty in the market. Key resistance is near $70,000, while $68,000 acts as important support. A break in either direction could decide the next strong move.

The short-term outlook looks slightly bearish due to repeated rejections near $70,000 and futures liquidations. Long-term structure has not completely broken.

The coming days will be critical to see whether buyers step in strongly or sellers regain control. Market conditions feel tense, and traders are closely monitoring every move.

DISCLAIMER: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but is instead a marketing communication.

The post Bitcoin struggles to find direction after four straight weekly losses appeared first on Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX.

The latest figures also highlight several developments across the broader US economy.

This article covers the key information traders need to stay on top of financial events in the world’s largest economy.

US Retail Sales Stall in December

Despite expectations, US retail sales stall in December, a disappointing result for what is usually a high-spending season. Households held off spending, especially on motor vehicles and other big-ticket items. This could slow economic growth as the new year begins.

This flat reading follows a 0.6% increase in November. The Commerce Department’s Census Bureau published the data on Tuesday. In a Reuters poll, economists had forecast a 0.4% increase in retail sales, which are not adjusted for inflation. Year on year, sales rose 2.4% in December.

There was also a revision to October’s data. The Commerce Department corrected the figures to show a 0.2% decline instead of the previously estimated 0.1%.

The suspected culprit is consumer fatigue. Cost-of-living challenges remain a major issue and are partly linked to price increases tied to Donald Trump’s tariff policy.

“Overall, signs of earlier consumer strength may be starting to falter, in line with gloomy sentiment indicators and a falling saving rate,” noted Capital Economics’ North America economist Thomas Ryan. “That said, as bigger rebate checks begin to flow, consumption at the end of the first quarter may turn out much stronger than it currently looks.”

Business Inventory Growth Disappoints

Business inventories grew more slowly than expected in the November report, which the prior US government shutdown delayed, as US retail sales stall. Inventories rose 0.1%, below the 0.2% increase forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. This follows a 0.2% gain in October. Inventories remain a volatile but crucial part of GDP calculations.

Retail inventories showed a notable stall. They fell 0.1% in November after 0.5% growth in October. Motor vehicle inventories dropped even more, falling 0.9% after a 1.0% increase in October.

Wholesale inventories grew 0.2%, while manufacturer stock increased 0.1%.

Slower business inventory growth may weigh on total US GDP expansion. Inventories have declined for two quarters, but a shrinking trade deficit supported the overall economy during that period. The Atlanta Federal Reserve now forecasts fourth-quarter GDP growth at a more modest 4.2% annualised rate, down from 4.4% in Q3.

Weak inventory growth, combined with the fact that US retail sales stall, may create additional challenges for economic growth as data moves into 2026.

New Trade Deal With India

Last week on Monday, Donald Trump announced that the US has signed a new trade deal with India.

This follows Europe’s agreement with New Delhi and new deals involving China and Canada, as US retail sales stall.

The rush may indicate an eagerness to repair the US’s image after the trigger-happy tariff policy left it looking ostracised.

Analysts say the wave of global deals, especially the EU-India pact, may have sped up the US decision to reach its own agreement with New Delhi. Even so, the deal came faster than most expected.

In a Truth Social post, Trump said India would stop purchasing oil from Russia, and would instead buy “over $500 BILLION DOLLARS of U.S. Energy, Technology, Agricultural, Coal, and many other products”.

The deal also includes a general tariff reduction from 25% to 18%. In addition, the 25% tariff imposed as “punishment” for India supplying itself with Russian oil was removed.

Terry Haines, founder of analysis firm Pangaea Policy, noted that this deal was “an emphatic answer to those thinking the EU is flanking or gaining speed on the US on trade”.

Trump Threatens to Block US-Canada Bridge Opening

While the US is forming new deals, it seems to have no trouble squabbling with old allies. Until recently, the US and Canada had a free trade deal, which Donald Trump’s government disrupted by implementing a 25% tariff.

Canada responded with retaliatory tariffs targeting politically and economically sensitive US industries. It also entered trade talks with the EU and China, as US retail sales stall and trade tensions weigh on growth.

This seems to have left a bitter taste in Donald Trump’s mouth. He has threatened to block the opening of the $4.6 billion Gordie Howe International Bridge project. The bridge would connect Detroit, Michigan, with Windsor, Ontario, and has been under construction since 2018.

“I will not allow this bridge to open until the United States is fully compensated for what we have given them. Canada must also treat the United States with the fairness and respect we deserve,” Trump said in a social media post.

Michigan Senator Elissa Slotkin warned that cancelling the deal could have major consequences. “Cancelling this project will have serious repercussions – higher costs for Michigan businesses, less secure supply chains and, ultimately, fewer jobs”, Slotkin said.

According to a University of Michigan study, the bridge would save truckers $2.3 billion over 30 years by cutting 20 minutes from crossing times.

US Dollar Slips, Pushing Gold Upwards

Fuelled by a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields, gold gained some power, becoming more attractive to international buyers. Spot gold grew by 1.8%, at $5,111.30 per ounce on 11 February.

Meanwhile, the US dollar fell to a near two-week low, weakening in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and other major pairs.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield also declined to nearly a one-month low, as US retail sales stalled and inventory data failed to meet expectations.

Fed Concerns

The Fed will hold its interest rate policy for the rest of current chair Jerome Powell’s tenure, which ends in May. Rates may be cut soon after, possibly in June, when likely appointee Kevin Warsh takes the seat. A move could come sooner if US retail sales stall and growth concerns increase.

More than 70% of economists have expressed concerns about the Fed’s independence after Powell’s term ends.

They point to Warsh’s rapid shift from a more restrictive stance to a more aggressive cutting strategy, as well as Trump’s influence. Donald Trump has repeatedly criticised Powell for not cutting rates more quickly.

Disclaimer:
This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication.

The post US Retail Sales Stall as Broader Economic Developments Cloud Growth Outlook appeared first on Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX.

Global markets and crypto react to equities and metals

The crypto market declined after global equities fell and gold and silver prices dropped.

According to CoinMetrics, Bitcoin was trading at $77,925.99 at 08:37 a.m. ET on Monday, up roughly 1%. The cryptocurrency dipped as low as $74,876 before recovering some of its losses. Over the past week, Bitcoin has dropped about 12% in the last seven days, erasing more than $200 billion in value, CoinMarketCap data shows.

Dessislava Ianeva, research analyst at crypto exchange Nexo, told CNBC that bitcoin’s drawdown coincided with a broader risk-off shift across global markets.

She added that it was amplified by structurally thin weekend liquidity, rather than by crypto-specific developments or signs of fundamental stress.

Investor sentiment weakens

Bitcoin often correlates with risk assets like stocks and may go up and down with them. On Friday, U.S. stocks fell, with tech stocks like Microsoft leading the way. Microsoft’s stock fell 10% after its earnings report disappointed investors.

On Monday, that negativity spread to the European and Asian stock markets. Also, gold and silver extended losses.

Forced liquidations worsened Bitcoin’s plunge. These occur when traders’ positions are automatically sold once the price reaches a set level.

The potential impact of Federal Reserve leadership

Last week, digital asset investment products had outflows of $1.7 billion for the second consecutive week. Year-to-date outflows have reached $1 billion, “signalling a marked deterioration in investor sentiment towards the asset class,” James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said on Monday.

Analyst Yuya Hasegawa at Japanese crypto firm Bitbank told CNBC that the recent Bitcoin sell-off appears to result from rising geopolitical risks, a decline in tech equities triggered by Microsoft, and a breakdown in precious metals. He noted that metals were one of the few remaining safe-haven outlets for investor capital in recent weeks.

Bitcoin is sometimes seen as a safe-haven asset during market volatility. However, it has fallen about 22% over the past year.

Other cryptocurrencies also declined on Monday following a sell-off in the last few days, including ether and XRP.

Bitcoin sell-off may continue amid market risks

Last month, crypto market participants told CNBC they expect bitcoin’s volatility to continue this year. Price forecasts range from $75,000 to more than $200,000.

Bitbank’s Hasegawa said that bitcoin may be nearing a “short-term bottom” around $70,000, which could be a “key reference point.”

He added “A sustained move materially below that level would likely require a meaningful reset in market conditions.”

Still, some think bitcoin could fall significantly further. John Blank, chief equity strategist at Zacks, said bitcoin could fall to $40,000 this year.

“We can get there very quickly, or more likely, we are going to get there over the next six to eight months,” Blank told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.Blank said he arrived at that figure by examining the lows and highs of past market cycles.

Bitcoin has previously dropped 70% to 80% from its all-time highs during past “crypto winters.” Its record peak is $126,000, which it reached in October. $40,000 would mark a roughly 70% fall from that level.

Geopolitical and economic drivers

Experts attributed the decline in crypto prices to looming geopolitical and economic uncertainty, which prompted a momentum-driven selloff as crypto holders raced to the exits. The initial drop likely forced some leveraged buyers to sell off their positions, intensifying downward pressure.

Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at financial firm Morningstar, explained that crypto tends to fall when investors reduce risk.

“That may have precipitated the decline, and then it was like a snowball rolling downhill,” Armour added.

The U.S. labour market has slowed in recent months, even as inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continue to rattle global markets. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine remains a major source of risk and escalating U.S. threats against Iran have driven oil prices higher.

“Everything that’s been happening the last few weeks is definitely adding a lot of nervousness in the market,” Christian Catalini, founder of the MIT Cryptoeconomics Lab, told ABC News. “Anything that makes investors risk averse of course affects the price of bitcoin.”

Longer-term trends

The recent drop in the price of bitcoin extends a prolonged sell-off. Bitcoin is about 40% below its  October 2025 peak. During the same period, the S&P 500 gained 5% while gold increased 17%.

Bitcoin has declined for four consecutive months, a feat not seen since the pandemic.

Some analysts weren’t surprised by bitcoin’s recent drop, given how high the price had climbed.

Bitcoin’s price increased more than 40% in late-2024 following President Donald Trump’s election, after he expressed support for cryptocurrency. The price then fell over the ensuing months but surged again in October 2025.

“There’s a natural limit to how high it can go up,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told ABC News.

Bitcoin has been highly volatile since it was launched around 15 years ago.

Despite fluctuations, bitcoin has shown long-term growth, rising 96% over the past five years, outpacing the S&P 500’s 80% gain.

Armour said the volatility of crypto makes its future price nearly impossible to predict, and the only certainty may be more volatility.

Bitcoin ETFs bring crypto closer to mainstream finance

The introduction of bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) has brought crypto closer to traditional finance over the past two years, allowing investors to gain exposure without holding the underlying asset.

Despite a broader investor base, digital assets continue to fluctuate.

“The best thing investors can do if they do want to get involved in bitcoin is to know their limitations,” Armour said. “They shouldn’t have high confidence in any one outcome.”

DISCLAIMER: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but is instead a marketing communication.

The post Bitcoin’s Rough Week: What’s Driving the Latest Sell-Off appeared first on Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX.

Gold’s importance in global markets is rising. Investors, banks, and households use it to shield against political and market risks. The move marks one of the strongest sustained advances in the metal’s modern trading history.

Geopolitical tensions fuel market uncertainty

It comes as tensions between the US and NATO over Greenland have added to increasing concerns about financial and geopolitical uncertainty.

Markets have also been unsettled by US President Donald Trump’s trade policies. On Saturday, he threatened a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if it reaches a trade deal with China.

Gold as a barometer of market anxiety

Gold is often regarded as a refuge in times of uncertainty and a barometer of market anxiety. The latest surge has been fuelled by a series of market-destabilising global and domestic actions by U.S. President Trump, including military action against Venezuela, a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and now-withdrawn tariff threats against NATO allies over Greenland. Together, these developments have increased investor unease and boosted demand for safe‑haven assets.

Demand for the precious metal has also been supported by a weaker US dollar, higher-than-expected inflation, expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates again this year, and continued buying by central banks around the world.

Gold rose 1.4% on Sunday 25 January to $5,058 a troy ounce, as of 8:14 pm ET.

Silver, another safe-haven asset, climbed 4.5% to $107.8 an ounce. Like gold, last year silver also recorded its strongest performance since 1979, with a 141% price increase.

Despite gold hitting the $5,000 benchmark, analysts remain largely bullish, arguing prices could climb further as uncertainty persists.

Before the rally, Goldman Sachs analysts had raised their gold price forecast to $5,400 per troy ounce, citing private sector demand in the yellow metal due to “lingering global policy uncertainty,” according to a research note published last week.

Investors, interest rates, and the weak dollar

Gold and other precious metals are seen as safe-haven assets that investors turn to in times of uncertainty. A weaker U.S dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have made non-yielding assets like gold more attractive, while higher-than-usual inflation has reinforced its appeal as a hedge.

Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, such as the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, have contributed to rising gold prices.

Gold’s appeal lies in its scarcity as the price strengthens

One of gold’s biggest attractions is its relative scarcity. According to the World Gold Council trade association, only about 216,265 tonnes of the metal have ever been mined.

Most of this was extracted since 1950, as advances in mining technology and the discovery of new deposits expanded production. The US Geological Survey estimates that 64,000 tonnes of gold remain underground.

Overall gold supply is expected to plateau in the coming years. Limited supply has helped reinforce gold’s long‑term value proposition.

A really good diversifier

“When you own gold, it’s not attached to the debt of somebody else like a bond is or an equity where the performance of a company will drive performance,” said Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refineries.

He added: “It’s a really good diversifier in a very uncertain world.“

‘People go to gold’

Gold had a blockbuster year in 2025, posting its largest annual gain since 1979 as investors flocked to precious metals.

Concerns over Trump’s tariff threats and overvalued AI stocks rattled financial markets. Gold responded by hitting repeated new record highs.

“I think a large part of that is the extreme uncertainty we have around US policy,” said Nikos Kavalis from research consultancy Metals Focus.

Interest rate cuts lift precious metals

Gold prices often rise not only during times of economic uncertainty but also when investors anticipate interest rates cut.

Lower rates generally lead to smaller returns on investments like bonds. As a result, investors turn to alternatives such as gold and silver.

The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to reduce its key interest rate twice this year.

Ahmad Assiri, Research Strategist at Pepperstone said: “It’s inversely correlated because the opportunity cost of keeping the money in a [government bond] is really not worth it anymore, so people go to gold.“

Central banks move away from the dollar as gold price rises

Gold buying is not limited to private investors.

Last year, central banks boosted their gold reserves by hundreds of tons, according to the World Gold Council.

“There’s a very clear shift away from the US dollar, which is benefiting gold immensely,” said Kavalis.

Could gold’s rally reverse?

Gold has continued its rally at the start of this year, but Frappell warns the “news-driven” market could also trigger a fall in its price.

“There’s got to be scope for unexpected news that actually might be positive for the world and not necessarily positive for gold,” he said.

Cultural demand for gold price remains strong

Not everyone buys gold for investment reasons. In many cultures, the metal is bought during festivals or given as gifts for occasions like weddings.

In India, the annual Diwali festival is considered an auspicious occasion to buy gold, believed to attract wealth and good luck. According to the US investment bank Morgan Stanley, Indian households hold $3.8tn of gold, equivalent to 88.8% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).

Neighbouring China is the world’s largest single consumer market for gold, with many people buying it for luck.

“We often see a seasonal uptick in demand around Chinese New Year, which we are seeing at the moment to an extent,” said Kavalis, referencing the upcoming Year of the Horse, which begins in February.

DISCLAIMER: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but is instead a marketing communication.

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Gold and silver rose sharply, with spot gold climbing as much as 2.1% to near $4,700 an ounce and silver jumping 4.4%. Trump’s aggressive trade stance weighed on the dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets.

The US said it would impose tariffs on eight European nations, including France, Germany and the UK, which oppose the plan to acquire Greenland.

Stock markets across Europe fell on opening. France’s CAC 40 dropped 1.6%, Germany’s DAX fell 1.4%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 slid nearly 1%. In London, the FTSE 100 was down 0.3%.

The losses hit key sectors, with Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz falling between 2.5% and 4%, while Stellantis, the owner of Peugeot, dropped 2%.

US markets were closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, but US tech stocks listed in Europe also declined. Alphabet shares in Frankfurt fell 2.4%, while Nvidia and Microsoft were down 2.2%. Investors moved cautiously, with rising interest in safe-haven assets like gold and silver.

On Saturday, Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland until the US could proceed with acquiring Greenland. This marked a major step in the president’s campaign to claim the autonomous Danish territory.

Tariffs set to escalate in coming months

In a long post on Truth Social on Saturday, Trump said he would impose a 10% tariff “on any and all goods sent to the United States of America,” starting on February 1. If no deal is reached, the tariff will increase to 25% on 1 June.

The announcement drove the dollar down 4% against the Swiss franc and 0.2% against the Japanese yen, both considered safe-haven currencies.

People familiar with the talks said European leaders are discussing several options to respond. These include retaliatory levies on €93 billion ($108 billion) of US goods.

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said Monday in Berlin, alongside his French counterpart Roland Lescure: “We are constantly experiencing new provocations. We are constantly experiencing new antagonism, which President Trump is seeking. Here in Europe, we must make it clear that the limit has been reached.”

EU considers strongest retaliation tools

Bloomberg reported that French President Emmanuel Macron may request activation of the European Union’s anti-coercion instrument (ACI). The ACI is the bloc’s strongest retaliation tool, enabling the EU to take a range of measures in response to coercive trade actions.

Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at global financial services firm StoneX, said: “With Trump adding tariffs into the mix, it is clear that his threat to Greenland is real. Geopolitical tensions have given the gold and silver bulls another reason to push prices to new highs.”

Kathleen Brooks, research director at broker XTB, noted that stocks in Asia were lower across the board. European and US equity market futures also started the week in decline.

Gold and silver surged, both reaching record highs, while the dollar fell broadly. Markets showed signs of risk aversion as investors awaited developments in the Greenland situation.

Brooks said this was a “big week for markets, and it hinges on Donald Trump’s tone at Davos. If he increases pressure on Europe to let him have control of Greenland, we do not think that the benign market environment can persist. Volatility – which is still well below the 12-month average – is unlikely to remain low as we move through January.”

Analysts warn of deeper trade-war risks

Peter Mallin-Jones, an analyst at Peel Hunt LLP, described the US’s tariff threats over Greenland as “reminiscent of a mafia extortion racket.”

He said the impact on gold and silver appears to result from a shift away from US dollar assets. It also reflects the potential inflationary impact of a US-EU trade war and the chilling effect on economic activity.

Gold and silver rally on geopolitical and Fed fears

This year, precious metals have rallied sharply after dramatic gains in 2025. That surge followed the US seizing Venezuela’s leader and escalating threats to take control of Greenland.

The Trump administration has also renewed attacks on the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the central bank’s independence. These developments have driven investors toward gold and silver as hedges against currency and debt risks.

NATO tensions add lasting risk premium

Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore, said that Greenland-related tensions differ from last year’s Liberation Day tariffs. She noted that they “point to a deeper geopolitical fault line.”

She added that “using tariff threats inside the alliance is a kind of trust shock that can leave a stickier risk premium,” referring to NATO.

Investor inflows boost gold and silver demand

Investor demand, led by buyers in China, has boosted rallies in gold and silver.

Exchange-traded funds’ gold holdings rose by more than 28 tons last week. This was the biggest increase since September and the seventh rise in the past eight weeks.

Many analysts expect the gains to continue. Citigroup Inc. forecast last week that gold could reach $5,000 within three months. Silver is expected to rise to $100 an ounce.

Gold and silver climb as dollar weakens

Spot gold climbed 1.6% to $4,668.46 an ounce as of Monday 19 January, and earlier hit a high of $4,690.59. Silver was up 3.3% at $93.0744, and earlier touched $94.1213. Platinum went up and palladium edged higher. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined 0.2%.

Rising global uncertainty prompted traders to reduce speculative assets. They shifted further into physical assets, such as gold and silver. This trend had driven a broad metal rally through late 2025.

Silver and platinum also benefited from this rally, although they faced some profit-taking on Tuesday. Spot silver fell 0.1% to $94.2890/oz following a record high in the previous session. Spot platinum dropped 0.6% to $2,361.47/oz. Industrial metals were similarly boosted by increased demand for physical assets. Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.4% to $12,927.58 a tonne, but remained close to recent record highs.

DISCLAIMER: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but is instead a marketing communication.

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According to ICE data, spot gold went up 1.5% to $4,404.77 a troy ounce after reaching a record high of $4,409.50 an ounce earlier on Monday. The gain pushed bullion past its October peak, while February gold futures jumped more than 1% to a high of $4,442.55/oz.

Traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026 after a series of economic data releases last week suggested slowing growth. US President Donald Trump has also called for looser monetary policy, which tends to support precious metals, as they do not pay interest.

Safe-haven demand builds amid growth concerns

Monday’s gains in metal markets are the latest in a long-running rally in the sector, as worries over slowing global economic growth drove demand for safe-haven assets. Expectations of easier monetary policy have further reduced the opportunity cost of holding physical metals.

“Gold is driven by a range of structural and cyclical supports—including a Fed easing cycle, persistent central-bank demand, and elevated geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Even as some near-term drivers fade, gold continues to behave as a strategic portfolio allocation rather than a purely tactical hedge,” OCBC analysts said.

They cautioned that silver could retreat on “signs of slowing industrial demand or growth concerns.”

US-Venezuela, Middle East tensions boost haven demand

Haven demand was supported by weekend reports that Israel was planning to brief the U.S. over attacking Iran again, amid concerns that Tehran is advancing its nuclear program.

Earlier in 2025, the two nations exchanged a series of strikes, culminating in U.S. airstrikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities and a subsequent ceasefire with Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump are set to meet in the U.S. later in December, with Netanyahu expected to push for additional measures against Iran.

Adding to global geopolitical uncertainty, weekend reports indicated the U.S. was preparing to board a third tanker off Venezuela’s coast, amid rising tensions between Washington and Caracas.

Washington, under Trump, has accused the Venezuelan government of using oil money to fund drug shipments and illegal immigration to the United States. Last week, Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers travelling to and from the country, and also raised the possibility of a ground campaign against the South American country.

Gold climbs to record high on rate-cut bets and risk

Bullion is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979. Gold has risen about two-thirds this year, helped by increased central-bank purchases and inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds. Trump’s aggressive moves to reshape global trade, as well as his threats to the US central bank’s independence, also added momentum to the rally earlier this year.

Investors have also helped drive gold higher, partly due to the so-called debasement trade, a move away from sovereign bonds and their currencies over concerns that rising debt will erode their value over time.

Gold-backed ETFs have seen inflows rise for five straight weeks, according to Bloomberg data, and World Gold Council data show total holdings in these funds have risen almost every month this year.

“Today’s rally is largely driven by early positioning around Fed rate-cut expectations, amplified by thin year-end liquidity,” said Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. Sluggish jobs growth and softer-than-expected US inflation in November supported the narrative for more rate cuts, she said.

Gold has quickly bounced back after falling from its October peak, a pullback that many considered as an overheated rally. The precious metal is now positioned to carry gains into next year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is among several banks forecasting further increases in 2026, with a base-case scenario of $4,900 an ounce with risks to the upside.

According to the bank, ETF investors are starting to compete with central banks for limited physical supply of gold.

Dilin Wu of Pepperstone said that central-bank buying, physical demand, and geopolitical hedging provide “medium- to long-term anchors, while Fed policy and real rates continue to drive cyclical swings.” She added that new entrants to the gold market, including stablecoin issuers like Tether and certain corporate treasury departments, were creating a “broader capital base” that “adds resilience to demand.”

Silver outpaces gold with sharp gains

Spot silver climbed 2.8% to $69.06 an ounce after hitting a high of $69.45 an ounce earlier in the session, the data showed. Silver futures reached a peak of $69.515/oz.

Silver’s recent advance has been buoyed by speculative inflows and lingering supply dislocations across major trading hubs following a historic short squeeze in October. The total trading volume for silver futures in Shanghai surged earlier this month, reaching levels near those observed during the crunch a few months ago.

Platinum and palladium extend rally

Precious metal prices were also likely boosted from expectations for more central-bank purchases and further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Platinum — which has rallied around 125% this year — has risen with added speed in recent days as the London market shows signs of tightening. Banks are holding more metal in the US to hedge against the risk of tariffs, while strong demand from China has supported robust exports and trading on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange.

Spot palladium surged nearly 5% to a near three-year high of $1,799.20/oz.

Spot gold rose 1.5% to $4,404.12 an ounce as of 1:49 p.m. in Singapore. Silver advanced 2.5% to $68.85. Platinum climbed 4% and palladium rose 4.4%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%.

The main factors affecting the market were the prospect of more rate cuts and “geopolitical concerns, particularly around Ukraine and the Trump administration’s recent national security strategy,” said Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery in Sydney, adding that Japan-China tensions and the situation in Venezuela were also supporting gold

Disclaimer: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.

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Recommitting to Netflix’s offer would mark the latest twist in the race for these assets. They include Warner Bros’ film and TV studio and its vast library. The collection ranges from classics like “Casablanca” and “Citizen Kane” to modern favourites such as “Harry Potter,” “Friends,” HBO, and the HBO Max streaming service.

The winner will gain a major advantage in the streaming wars by securing a deep content library that has long been an acquisition target.

The bidding war: Netflix vs. Paramount

Earlier this month, Netflix emerged on top with a $27 cash-and-stock bid for Warner Bros’ non-cable assets.

Paramount CEO David Ellison later went directly to Warner Bros’ shareholders with a $30-a-share, all-cash offer for the entire company.

In regulatory filings, Paramount has argued its bid is stronger than Netflix’s offer and likely to win approval more easily. The offer is financed with $41 billion in new equity from the Ellison family and RedBird Capital. It also includes $54 billion in debt commitments from Bank of America, Citi, and Apollo.

Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners, one of Paramount’s financing partners, dropped out of the deal. The firm cited the involvement of “two strong competitors.”

Regulatory filings also show the offer is backed by external investors. These include the Saudi Public Investment Fund and the Qatar Investment Authority, raising questions about the certainty of financing.

Concerns over financing and flexibility

The equity is backstopped by a trust that manages the wealth of his father, software billionaire Larry Ellison. Because the trust is revocable, assets can be withdrawn at any time.

Earlier the same day, President Trump criticised Paramount on social media, saying he had been treated “far worse” by the company’s CBS division since the Ellison family took control earlier this year. The Ellisons have touted their close relationship with the president.

Warner Bros.’ board is also concerned about the company’s ability to operate during the year or more it could take to secure regulatory approval for a sale. Paramount’s proposal isn’t offering enough flexibility to run its business or manage its balance sheet, according to sources.

Paramount said in a filing last week that it had addressed Warner Bros. concerns.These included flexibility in refinancing debt and a $5 billion breakup fee, which the Ellison family would backstop.

Paramount also adjusted other terms of its bid in response to Warner Bros.’ requests. For example, about $1 billion in financing from China’s Tencent Holdings Ltd. was withdrawn. The move followed concerns that the funding could raise national security issues with US regulators.

Warner Bros deal with Netflix

Warner Bros. agreed this month to sell its studios, streaming business and HBO to Netflix for $27.75 a share, or about $83 billion including debt. Separately, the company plans to spin off cable networks, including CNN and TNT to shareholders before the Netflix deal closes.

Warner Bros. Discovery’s board has publicly called Paramount’s offer “inadequate,” citing significant risks compared with the Netflix deal. The board emphasised that Netflix provides a more certain and stable transaction for shareholders.

Paramount, which owns MTV and the Paramount+ streaming service, has offered to acquire all of Warner Bros. for $30 a share, or over $108 billion, including debt.

Paramount’s hostile tender offer

Three days after Netflix and Warner Bros. announced their deal, Paramount took its offer directly to shareholders. It launched a public tender offer for Warner Bros. shares.

Paramount has indicated that its $30-a-share offer for Warner Bros. isn’t its “best and final,” suggesting there is room to increase its bid. Warner Bros. Shares closed at $28.90 in New York, suggesting some investors anticipate a higher price.

Warner Bros.’ agreement with Netflix bars it from soliciting proposals from other bidders, but it may consider any proposals that others submit. If a superior offer arises, Warner Bros. must give Netflix the opportunity to match the better offer in order to keep their existing deal.

Political considerations could also influence the outcome: President Trump has indicated he plans to weigh in on the regulatory review, particularly regarding CNN — included in Paramount’s bid but excluded from Netflix’s acquisition.

Paramount’s bid would acquire the entire Warner Bros. Discovery company, including CNN — part of its cable network portfolio not included in the Netflix transaction.

The financing behind Paramount’s offer has drawn scrutiny: in addition to the Ellison family and RedBird Capital, outside investors listed included Affinity Partners, the Saudi Public Investment Fund, and the Qatar Investment Authority. Affinity Partners has since stepped back from the deal.

Political and regulatory considerations

President Donald Trump has indicated he plans to be involved in the regulatory review of any deal. He has specifically mentioned CNN as a factor, a network included in Paramount’s bid but excluded from Netflix’s agreement.

Analysts say that political and regulatory oversight could play a decisive role, particularly given the high-profile nature of CNN and Warner Bros.’ content library, and the potential for antitrust review of Netflix’s growing streaming market share.

What’s at stake for the streaming industry

The result of the Warner Bros. Discovery takeover battle could change the global streaming landscape at a very important time for the industry. After years of heavy investment, streaming platforms are under pressure to prioritise profitability. This makes ownership of established franchises and large content libraries increasingly valuable.

For Netflix, securing Warner Bros.’ studio operations and HBO would make Netflix the leader in streaming. It would give it control over one of Hollywood’s most prestigious production engines and a library of films, premium television and unscripted content. Analysts say the merger would reduce Netflix’s reliance on third-party licensing while strengthening its ability to produce exclusive, high-budget programming on a large scale.

Paramount’s approach reflects a different strategic bet. The company would be wagering on the long-term value of diversified media assets by looking to acquire the entire Warner Bros. Discovery business, which includes cable networks like CNN.

This is even though traditional television audiences continue to decline. Supporters argue that scale across streaming, film and linear television could improve negotiating power with advertisers and distributors while giving them greater flexibility as viewing habits change.

Investors and regulators are watching closely, viewing the contest as a test case for how consolidation in the streaming era will be judged, and how much market power regulators will allow a single platform to accumulate.

Disclaimer: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.

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Fed rate expectations and monetary policy anxiety

Expectations for a December rate cut were solidified after moderate consumer spending data at the end of the third quarter. However, investors remain focused on future policy moves from what is expected to be the most divided Fed in years.

“It’ll be hard for the market to find a direction that it wants to follow until after the Fed meeting,” said Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth. “We just came off a really strong earnings season and we won’t have earnings again for another four weeks. The only thing that the market really has to hang its hat on or to point to is the Fed.”

The Fed is widely expected to announce a quarter-point cut to the federal funds rate tomorrow — a modest adjustment that typically lowers borrowing costs while the central bank continues to balance its dual mandate of maximising employment and controlling inflation, both of which influence Americans’ job prospects and the prices they pay.

After the Fed’s last meeting on 28-29 October, several policymakers said they would prefer to keep rates unchanged in December, briefly downgrading the odds of a third rate cut below 30%.

Influence of Fed officials

John Williams, president of the New York Fed, said that this year’s uptick in inflation appears temporary, driven by Trump’s tariffs, and is likely to fade by the middle of 2026.

As a result, “I still see room for a further adjustment” in the Fed’s short-term rate, Williams said. As president of the New York Fed and vice chair of the rate-setting committee, Williams votes on every interest rate decision and is close to Chair Powell. Analysts said it was unlikely Williams would have made such a statement without Powell’s support. Investors rapidly lifted the odds of a cut, which now are at 89%, according to CME Fedwatch.

“You’re seeing the power of the chair,” said Nathan Sheets, chief global economist at Citi and also a former top Fed staffer. “Members of the committee, my instinct is, are wanting to underscore their support for Powell.”

Treasury yields react to global events

Meanwhile, higher yields on U.S. Treasury bonds also added some pressure on equities. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose soon after a powerful earthquake struck off the coast of Japan before U.S. stock trading had opened.

Market snapshot

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 215.67 points (0.45%) to 47,739.32, the S&P 500 declined 23.89 points (0.35%) to 6,846.51 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 32.22 points (0.14%) to 23,545.90.

Declining issues outpaced advancers by a 2.04-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, which recorded 167 new highs and 68 new lows. The Nasdaq saw 2,092 stocks rise and 2,672 fell as declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.28-to-1 ratio. The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and 10 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 149 new highs and 79 new lows.

On U.S. exchanges, 16.12 billion shares changed hands, below the 17.52 billion average for the last 20 sessions.

Corporate stocks and major movers

Paramount Skydance’s $108.4 billion hostile offer for Warner Bros Discover aimed to outbid Netflix, lifting Warner Bros Discovery shares 4.4%, while Paramount’s shares jumped 9% and Netflix stock dropped 3.4%.

Netflix was a key drag on the S&P 500 Communication Services Index which fell 1.8%, the  worst-performing sector among the S&P 500’s 11 major industry sectors.

Technology was the only advancing sector, adding 0.9% with boosts from Microsoft, Nvidia, and Broadcom.

Google parent Alphabet fell more than 2%, marking the biggest drag on the communications services index, followed by Meta Platforms.

Chipmaker Marvell Technology shares slid 7% after used-car dealer Carvana secured a spot in the S&P 500 instead. Carvana shares jumped 12%.

Confluent shares surged 29% after IBM agreed to acquire the data-infrastructure company for approximately $11 billion. IBM shares rose a modest 0.4%.

Tesla fell 3% after Morgan Stanley issued a bearish view on the electric-vehicle maker.

Also on Monday, Oppenheimer forecast a Street-high year-end 2026 S&P 500 target of 8,100 points, citing strong earnings and macro resilience.

Upcoming earnings and AI developments

Later this week, the focus will turn to tech sector valuations, as Broadcom and Oracle report earnings, with investors increasingly worried about debt-funded artificial intelligence spending.

In a move BMO’s Schleif said would benefit AI-focused companies, U.S. President Donald Trump announced he will sign an executive order creating a single national rule for artificial intelligence, replacing disparate laws passed by U.S. states.

Broader macro sentiment and Fed politics

Broader monetary-policy uncertainty is rising as investors get ready for a possible leadership shift at the Fed and an expected rate cut.

Markets widely expect a 25-basis point rate cut on Wednesday, but key attention is on Powell’s guidance and how the dot plot will lay out for 2026.

Markets are predicting 77 basis points of easing through the end of 2026, meaning two additional cuts after December.

The Fed is expected to adopt a semi-hawkish tone this week, cautioning that subsequent rate cuts will be higher. Anything that even sounds vaguely dovish will be a surprise and could prompt volatility.

Bond investors are positioning for a shallow easing cycle, shifting from long-duration Treasuries into intermediate maturities.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, a top candidate to succeed Powell, said that the Fed should continue to lower interest rates, adding more complexity to what is likely to be a complex Fed decision day.

Analysts generally expect that if Hassett is appointed as the next Fed chair, he will pursue a dovish stance as chair, but markets are not so certain.

The unsettled mood has kept stocks mostly trading sideways and European futures point to a lacklustre opening is on the cards, although chip stocks might be worth keeping an eye on.

Global market notes

President Donald Trump said the United States will allow Nvidia’s H200 processors, its second-best artificial intelligence chips, to be exported to China, subject to a 25% fee on such sales.

The Australian dollar was choppy after the country’s central bank held rates unchanged.

The yen steadied after briefly weakening on Japan’s earthquake news. Thankfully, the impact was limited as Japanese authorities quickly lifted tsunami warnings.

Disclaimer: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.

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