{"id":123018,"date":"2025-11-18T15:58:31","date_gmt":"2025-11-18T13:58:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=123018"},"modified":"2026-01-15T16:29:53","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T14:29:53","slug":"golds-weekly-update-the-feds-stance-and-octobers-employment-data-to-shake-golds-price","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/es\/golds-weekly-update-the-feds-stance-and-octobers-employment-data-to-shake-golds-price\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold\u2019s Weekly Update: The Fed\u2019s stance and October\u2019s employment data to shake gold\u2019s price"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold\u2019s price has been declining for the past three trading days<\/a> and was still under selling pressure in today\u2019s Asian session. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In today\u2019s report, we are to discuss the market\u2019s expectations for the Fed\u2019s intentions, the validity of the negative correlation of the USD with gold at the current stage and upcoming financial releases that could shake the precious metal\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For a rounder view, we are to provide a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market now prices in the Fed to remain on hold in December<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Since our last report, the main driver behind gold\u2019s movement on a fundamental level may have been the market\u2019s expectations for the Fed\u2019s intentions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It should be noted that two weeks ago, the market was pricing in a possible rate cut in the December meeting by 70%, yet last Friday, the possibility of a rate cut was equal to the chances of the bank remaining on hold. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today Fed Fund Futures imply a probability of 57.9% for the bank to keep rates unchanged and the rest implying that a 25 basis points rate cut is still possible. Signals from Fed policymakers were mixed over the past few days. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s characteristic that Dallas Fed President Logan and Kansas Fed President Schmid suggested that the bank should remain on hold, while Atlanta Fed President Bostic sounded uncertain about a rate cut in the December meeting, while Fed Board Governor Waller stated that he will be backing a rate cut. In the grand scheme of things, it seems that there is a shift among centrist Fed policymakers towards the bank remaining on hold in the coming meeting, which in turn forced the market to readjust its expectations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We highlight the release of the Fed\u2019s October meeting minutes tomorrow, and should the document intensify the market\u2019s expectations for the Fed to remain on hold in the December meeting, we may see the release weighing on gold\u2019s price and vice versa. Also, we expect statements by Fed policymakers to continue swaying the market\u2019s expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The negative correlation of the USD with gold remains inactive<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Another issue that tends to be under gold traders\u2019 magnifying glass is the validity of the negative correlation between the USD and gold\u2019s price at the current stage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We note that the USD index maintained very subtle movements signalling a relative stability of the USD against other currencies in the FX market over the past week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, the movement of gold\u2019s price was quite intense since last Tuesday, and despite the two trading instruments at some points taking opposite directions, the lack of high volatility on behalf of the USD tends to blur the relationship between the two trading instruments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence, we tend to view the negative correlation of the two trading instruments as currently being. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, we note that US bond yields, despite some ups and downs, remained at relatively low levels and that applies both for shorter-term as well as longer-term bonds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence, the possibility of US bonds presenting a lucrative alternative to the non-interest-bearing shiny metal remains, in our opinion, at low levels currently.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

October\u2019s US employment data could shake gold\u2019s price<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Yet there is another release that could alter the markets\u2019 expectations for the Fed\u2019s intentions and, in this way, shake gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the US Government shutdown being lifted, the market now braces for the release of high-impact data. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next in line is the release of October\u2019s US employment data on Thursday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the US employment data for October, show that the US employment market has eased considerably or even possibly cratered in the past month we may see the pressure on the Fed to continue easing its monetary policy and thus could provide support for gold\u2019s price, while should the data show a tighter than expected US employment market in the past month, we may see the release weighing on gold\u2019s price.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAU\/USD Gr\u00e1fico Diario<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Gold<\/figure>\n\n\n\n