{"id":54895,"date":"2023-02-02T13:46:53","date_gmt":"2023-02-02T11:46:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=54895"},"modified":"2026-02-09T16:35:52","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T14:35:52","slug":"wti-on-track-to-record-second-weekly-loss","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/es\/wti-on-track-to-record-second-weekly-loss\/","title":{"rendered":"WTI on track to record second weekly loss"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/en\/wti-conducts-balancing-act-at-the-80-range\/\"><strong>WTI<\/strong> extended<\/a> its fall this week and it is currently found trading near $76 per barrel. The <strong>Fed\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>interest<\/strong> <strong>rate<\/strong> <strong>decision<\/strong> yesterday was apprehended as dovish by the market and caused the <strong>dollar\u2019s<\/strong> fall to fresh 9-month lows and energy traders\u2019 focus turns towards the looming European Commission\u2019s proposal for a price cap on Russian <strong>crude<\/strong>. &nbsp;In this report, we aim to shed light on the catalysts driving <strong>WTI\u2019s<\/strong> price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-imf-forecasts-china-as-leader-of-global-growth-in-2023\"><strong>IMF forecasts China as leader of global growth in 2023<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After a grim global outlook forecast at the start of 2023, the <strong>International Monetary Fund<\/strong> revised its predictions and pointed out that China will be the key driving force behind global growth for the year ahead. Even though, <strong>inflationary pressures<\/strong>, <strong>high-interest rates<\/strong> and the <strong>ongoing war in Ukraine<\/strong> persist, the Fund upwardly revised its forecast to 2.9%, up from the initial 2.7%, citing that \u201ceconomic growth proved surprisingly resilient in the third quarter of last year, with strong labour markets, robust household consumption and business investment, and better-than-expected adaptation to the energy crisis in Europe. Inflation, too, showed improvement, with overall measures now decreasing in most countries\u2014even if core inflation, which excludes more volatile energy and food prices, has yet to peak in many countries\u201d. The organization\u2019s chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas placed significant importance on the prospects for better-than-expected <strong>recovery of the Chinese economy<\/strong> after the abrupt pivotal abandonment of its strict <strong>zero covid<\/strong> policy and stated that the \u201cre-opening paves the way for a rapid rebound in activity\u201d. He added, \u201cThe restrictions and COVID-19 outbreaks in China dampened activity last year. With the economy now re-opened, we see growth rebounding to 5.2 per cent this year as activity and mobility recover.\u201d Besides China, the <strong>IMF<\/strong> foresees India playing a big role as well, stating that \u201ctogether with China, India will account for half of the global growth this year, versus just a tenth for the US and euro area combined.\u201d Despite the optimistic outlook projections however, the organization reminded that the \u201cglobal economy is poised to slow this year, before rebounding next year and growth will remain weak by historical standards\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-opec-guidance-remains-unchanged\"><strong>OPEC+ guidance remains unchanged <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesterday, the <strong>OPEC+<\/strong> ministerial meeting failed to provide <strong>oil<\/strong> traders with significant information, as the committee reaffirmed that the <strong>oil cartel<\/strong> will keep its production quotas unchanged for the foreseeable future. In November of 2022, <strong>OPEC+<\/strong> decided to cut its production output by 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2023 to bring the market back to equilibrium. The Head of OPEC+, Haitham Al Ghais at the time, stated that the reason behind the decision, was the apparent <strong>deviation<\/strong> between market <strong>fundamentals<\/strong> y <strong>oil prices<\/strong>, vowing to protect the cartel\u2019s interests. According to Reuters, the ministers did not discuss the prospects of increased demand from China once its economy returns to normal, nor about <b>supply-related<\/b>&nbsp;concerns from <strong>Russia<\/strong>, whose exports will soon be subject to a European ban and G7 price cap. <strong>China\u2019s<\/strong> pivotal shift near the end of 2022, to abandon its draconian covid related restrictions and opt for a full-fledged <strong>reopening<\/strong>, has boosted optimism for higher oil demand in recent months and prompted speculations that <strong>OPEC<\/strong> may be incentivized to increase output to match the thirst of the <strong>second largest oil consuming country<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-crude-inventories-continue-to-build-up\"><strong>Crude inventories continue to build up<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On Tuesday the weekly <strong>API<\/strong> <strong>crude oil inventories<\/strong> figure pointed to the buildup of 6.3 million barrels in stocks, higher than the expectation for a drawdown of -1.0 million, while yesterday <strong>EIA\u2019s weekly oil inventories<\/strong> recorded a rise of 4.1 million barrels of <strong>crude<\/strong>, exceeding expectations of 0.37 million for the same period. The results suggest weakening demand for <strong>crude<\/strong> which may have contributed to the fall of <strong>WTI<\/strong> prices in the past few days. It is important to strike out that the API crude oil inventories have been piling up for five consecutive weeks, while the <strong>EIA\u2019s inventories<\/strong> recorded a 6-week string of buildups, the highest in over 2 years. Lastly, we would note that last Friday the <strong>Baker Hughes oil rig<\/strong> count showed that the number of active oil rigs in the US has dropped by a count of 4 reaching a total of 609, which could serve as another indication for a slowdown in demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-technical-analysis\">An\u00e1lisis t\u00e9cnico<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-wti-cash-h4\"><strong>WTI Cash H4<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"291\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/wti-oil-4h-chart-02-02-2022-technical-analysis.png\" alt=\"WTI price on track for second weekly loss on 4H chart\" class=\"wp-image-54898\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at the <strong>WTICash<\/strong> 4-hour chart we observe oil prices extending their downward motion this week and are currently attempting to consolidate near the 76.60 (S1) support level. We hold a <strong>bearish outlook bias<\/strong> for the <strong>commodity<\/strong> given the <strong>descending trendline<\/strong> initiated on the 27<sup>.<\/sup> of January and supporting our case is the <strong>RSI indicator<\/strong> below our 4-hour chart that currently registers a value of 34, signalling <strong>bearish tendencies<\/strong> surrounding <strong>WTI<\/strong>. We also note that the price action broke below the 100 and 200 period Moving Averages, which could be interpreted as another signal that the <strong>bears are in control<\/strong>. &nbsp;Should the <strong>bulls<\/strong> take initiative over <strong>crude\u2019s<\/strong> direction, we may see the price action rise and break the 79.00 (R1) and move closer to the 82.60 (R2) <strong>resistance<\/strong> <strong>barrier<\/strong>. Should on the hand the <strong>bears<\/strong> <strong>reign<\/strong> <strong>over<\/strong>, we may see the price action break below the 76.60 (S1) <strong>support<\/strong> level and move decisively lower towards the 73.50 (S2) <strong>support<\/strong> <strong>base<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\"><i>Si tiene preguntas generales o comentarios relacionados con este art\u00edculo, env\u00ede un correo electr\u00f3nico directamente a nuestro equipo de investigaci\u00f3n a <a href=\"mailto:research_team@ironfx.com\">research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><b>Descargo de responsabilidad:<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Esta informaci\u00f3n no se considera un consejo de inversi\u00f3n ni una recomendaci\u00f3n de inversi\u00f3n, sino una comunicaci\u00f3n de marketing<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WTI extended its fall this week and it is currently found trading near $76 per&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[404,380,403],"class_list":["post-54895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-oil-market","tag-oil-price","blog-category-commodities","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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