{"id":95759,"date":"2024-12-03T16:24:12","date_gmt":"2024-12-03T14:24:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=95759"},"modified":"2024-12-03T16:24:14","modified_gmt":"2024-12-03T14:24:14","slug":"gold-outlook-geopolitics-us-data-shape-the-week-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/es\/gold-outlook-geopolitics-us-data-shape-the-week-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Geopolitics & US Data Shape the Week Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"

Compare to last report<\/a> , Gold\u2019s price appears to have relatively stabilized yet with key events occurring and the ongoing geopolitical tensions, that picture could quickly change. In today\u2019s report we intend to have a look at the upcoming release of the US employment data and geopolitical issues in the Middle East, all on a fundamental level for the gold market. For a rounder view, we conclude the report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s four-hour chart.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US employment data due out this week<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The US employment data<\/strong> for November is set to be released this Friday and as always, the NFP and Unemployment rate may take centre stage. The expectations by economists are for the Non-Farm-Payrolls figure to come in at 202k , vastly exceeding last month\u2019s disappointing figure of 12k, and for the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Setting aside the NFP<\/strong> figure, the expected uptick in the unemployment rate may amplify calls for the Fed to cut interest rates in their last meeting<\/strong> of the year, as it may imply a loosening labour market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet, we would like to stress that a mere 0.1% uptick in the unemployment<\/strong> rate does not necessitate a collapse of the US labour market. However, should the unemployment<\/strong> rate come in as expected it could weigh on the dollar for the reasons we mentioned above. On the other hand, should the NFP figure<\/strong> vastly exceed expectations it could potentially mitigate the bearish implications on the dollar, as it may counter the argument of a loosening US labour market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, the final employment data for the year may set the tone<\/strong> heading into next year and thus any deviations<\/strong> and their positive or negative implications on the dollar may be amplified by market participants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Syria in focus<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Geopolitical tensions may be slightly easing between Israel<\/strong> y Hezbollah<\/strong> following the ceasefire deal, yet in other parts of the Middle East tensions are rising. We are referring to the recent escalation in Syria<\/strong>, where Rebel<\/strong> forces<\/strong> backed by Turkey made significant gains over the weekend, in what can be described as a collapse of the regime forces which saw Aleppo<\/strong> and its surrounding regions being taken by the Rebel forces. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the Kurdish forces have also decided to take advantage of the Syrian Army\u2019s disorganization<\/strong> and have also made gains and captured territory. The vested interest from Turkey<\/strong>, Iran<\/strong>, Russia<\/strong>, Israel<\/strong>, and the US<\/strong> in the region may be of great concern as the proxy war heats up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, should we see a more active involvement by the foreign nations we mentioned above, it may further increase geopolitical tensions in the region and thus may funnel safe haven inflows into gold which in turn may aid its price. In conclusion, the recent developments in Syria could lead to numerous nations being pitted against each other, in their attempt to garner influence in the region. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, such an escalation in our view could aid gold\u2019s price. On the flip side, should we see agreements between the power brokers in the region, it may have the opposite effect on gold\u2019s price. In our view, we would not be surprised to see the recent situation in Syria continuing as the factions opposing Assad\u2019s regime have got their \u201cfoot through the door\u201d. Hence, we would not be surprised to see the power brokers taking a more active support role in the region in order to pursue their interests, which in turn could increase tensions in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD 4H Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Chart<\/figure>\n\n\n\n