{"id":37579,"date":"2022-10-04T15:13:59","date_gmt":"2022-10-04T12:13:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=37579"},"modified":"2025-10-13T16:47:40","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T13:47:40","slug":"gold-edges-higher-as-dollar-eases","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/fa\/gold-edges-higher-as-dollar-eases\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold edges higher as dollar eases"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0637\u0644\u0627<\/strong> prices climbed to $1700<\/strong> level earlier today, with the precious<\/strong> extending its short-term rally<\/strong>, after bond yields\u2019<\/strong> recent sharp<\/strong> fall<\/strong> and the easing<\/strong> of the dollar<\/strong> from its new 20-year highs<\/strong>. Furthermore, the scheduled speeches by various Fed<\/strong> officials at a first glance appeared insufficient at boosting the dollar<\/strong> higher, despite their hawkish tone<\/strong>, and the market currently awaits patiently for the employment data<\/strong> due Friday. In this report we aim to shed light on the catalysts driving the precious metal\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Worse than expected US manufacturing data cools the dollar<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The greenback<\/strong> retracted<\/strong> further from its highs<\/strong> yesterday, after the softer than expected<\/strong> ISM manufacturing PMI<\/strong> results heightened the fears<\/strong> that the US<\/strong> manufacturing complex<\/strong> recent slump has fallen victim to the Fed\u2019s aggressive intents<\/strong>, thus posing the question as to whether the Fed<\/strong> will take its foot off the pedal. The unexpected markdown of the key metric pointed to a slowdown of the US factory growth<\/strong>, knocking<\/strong> the dollar<\/strong> back<\/strong> from its 20-year highs. Not only that, but the recent sharp fall o<\/strong>f the US 10-year treasury yield<\/strong> from its highs, also weighed on the dollar<\/strong> and gave room for the precious<\/strong> to rally<\/strong> after a period of sustained devaluation. The fall could indicate that investors doubt that the central bank<\/strong> will be able to continue to tighten the monetary policy aggressively<\/strong>, since there are signs that the economic activity<\/strong> is slowing<\/strong> down<\/strong>. Another factor contributing to the cool off<\/strong> of the greenback<\/strong> was the resurgence<\/strong> of the sterling<\/strong> from its all-time lows, after a tumultuous last week, where we saw the market\u2019s negative reaction to the UK announcement of the mini-budget<\/strong>, the Bank of England\u2019<\/strong>s liquidity operations<\/strong> announcement amidst a tightening cycle, seeking to purchase long dated gilt bonds in an attempt to safeguard the anemic pound,<\/strong> and yesterday\u2019s U-turn from the UK government, maintaining its top income tax rate after public backlash. All things considered, the dollar sustains<\/strong> its role as the go-to safe haven asset<\/strong>, for the time being and gold\u2019s<\/strong> run may be short lived<\/strong> in our assessment. The next catalyst<\/strong> that may indirectly influence the value of the bullion<\/strong> is the employment report<\/strong> expected to hit the markets this Friday, which will be of interest for the Fed<\/strong> since it falls under its scope for maintaining tightness<\/strong> in the US labour market<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed envoys call for more rate hikes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

During a speech yesterday, New York Fed President Williams stated that even though some marginal signs<\/strong> of inflation<\/strong> cooling<\/strong> have been observed, the underlying price pressures<\/strong> faced by consumers remain<\/strong> elevated<\/strong>, hinting that the Fed<\/strong> still has much more work to do<\/strong> in order to restore price stability<\/strong> within the market. \u201cClearly, inflation is far too high, and persistently high inflation undermines the ability of our economy to perform at its full potential\u201d noted Williams, highlighting at the same time the Fed\u2019s steadfast approach<\/strong> at raising rates with an aggressive manner in an attempt to curb inflation, even at the expense of tipping the economy<\/strong> into a recession<\/strong>. There is an ongoing divide between market participants as to whether the Fed<\/strong> will seek to continue with another jumbo 75 basis points<\/strong> rate<\/strong> hike<\/strong> in the November meeting and currently the FFF imply a 66% probability for such a scenario to materialize, noting however that leading to the decision, the market will have to grapple with the highly anticipated employment<\/strong> data<\/strong> results<\/strong> for September, which are due this week, and an inflation print<\/strong> expected in the next week. Nonetheless, we also feel the urge to note today\u2019s scheduled speeches of Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland Fed President Mester, San Francisco Fed President Daly and Atlanta Fed President Bostic all of which will be monitored<\/strong> for any deviation<\/strong> from the main<\/strong> narrative<\/strong>. Should the speeches continue to deliver the as expected hawkish undertone<\/strong>, we would expect seeing support<\/strong> for the dollar<\/strong> \u0648 gold<\/strong> to remain prone<\/strong> for downside<\/strong> due to their inherent negative correlation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u062a\u062c\u0632\u06cc\u0647 \u0648 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u06cc\u0644 \u0641\u0646\u06cc<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD H4 Chart<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"xau-usd-4h-chart-4-10-2022-technical-analysis\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at XAUUSD<\/strong> 4H chart we observe the bounce from its year-to-date lows on the 28 <\/sup> of September, rallying<\/strong> towards the $1700 l<\/strong>evel where it is currently found trading. Given the recent run we hold a bullish outlook<\/strong> bias<\/strong> also due to the ascending trendline<\/strong> and supporting our case is the RSI indicator<\/strong> below our 4-hour chart which registers a value of 69 highlighting the strong<\/strong> bullish<\/strong> tendences<\/strong> surrounding the precious<\/strong>. We must note however that gold\u2019s<\/strong> move may be due a correction<\/strong> given the recent break of the upper Bollinger Band<\/strong> and the RSI reading crossing above the 70 overbought threshold.<\/strong> Should the bulls<\/strong> maintain control<\/strong>, we may see the break above the 1712 (R1) resistance<\/strong> level and the move near the 1734 (R2) resistance barrier. Should the bears take over<\/strong>, we may see the break below the 1687 (S1) support<\/strong> level and the price action moving closer to the 1660 (S2) support base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0633\u0644\u0628 \u0645\u0633\u0626\u0648\u0644\u06cc\u062a:
This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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