{"id":60612,"date":"2023-04-13T10:20:59","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T07:20:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=60612"},"modified":"2025-10-17T11:47:23","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T08:47:23","slug":"us-cpi-rates-slowdown-yet-recession-worries-remain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/fa\/us-cpi-rates-slowdown-yet-recession-worries-remain\/","title":{"rendered":"US CPI rates slowdown, yet recession worries remain"},"content":{"rendered":"

The USD weakened across the board yesterday as the headline CPI rates for March slowed down more than expected implying that inflationary pressures have eased further in the US economy, yet on a macroeconomic level we must note that the core CPI rate on a year-on-year level actually ticked up. Furthermore, we note that the release of the Fed\u2019s meeting minutes revealed that the Bank\u2019s staff had warned about a possible recession and that despite some hints of moderating inflationary pressures, the bank still decided to hike rates once again. Also, the minutes showed that the bank will take into account the cumulative and lagged effects of its monetary policy tightening in deciding the course of its future action, yet there seemed to be little if any hints of the bank\u2019s intentions in the next meeting. It should be noted that the market worries about a possible recession in the US economy seemed to intensify overshadowing the optimism created by the slowdown of the US CPI rates for March, initially. It was characteristic that despite some initial support US stock markets ended their day in the reds. For the time being, we note that the market seems to continue to expect the bank to hike rates by 25 basis points in its May meeting and to remain on hold for the June one. Also, on the monetary front we note BoC\u2019s interest rate decision yesterday to remain on hold, as was widely expected keeping rates at 4.50%, while in its accompanying statement, the bank stated that it \u201cexpects CPI inflation to fall quickly to around 3% in the middle of this year\u201d. Overall, we expect the bank to remain on hold in its following meeting and BoC\u2019s stance may weaken the CAD as it would cause monetary policy outlooks to diverge. Also in the FX. Across the Atlantic, we draw traders\u2019 attention to GBP as UK\u2019s GDP rates are to be released, while on the monetary front, we note Hugh Pill\u2019s speech later today. It should be noted that BoE Governor Bailey yesterday stated that the bank does not see any concerning signs in the markets. The overall statement seemed to sound optimistic and to prepare the ground for more rate hikes. Remaining in the FX market, we note that Australia\u2019s employment data were better than expected for March, as the employment change figure did not drop as widely as expected and the unemployment rate managed to remain unchanged. Also, we note the better-than-expected Chinese trade data for the past month, especially the wide improvement of the export growth rate, which managed to contain the drop of the trade surplus. The strong exporting sector has proven its worth once again and seems to continue to be supporting the Chinese economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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