{"id":64111,"date":"2023-06-08T14:21:45","date_gmt":"2023-06-08T11:21:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=64111"},"modified":"2024-07-10T16:59:42","modified_gmt":"2024-07-10T13:59:42","slug":"oil-moves-higher-as-traders-await-the-fed-interest-rate-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/fa\/oil-moves-higher-as-traders-await-the-fed-interest-rate-decision\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil moves higher, as traders await the Fed interest rate decision"},"content":{"rendered":"

WTI moved slightly higher<\/strong><\/a> since last Friday<\/strong>. Prospects for future demand and production levels appear to be continuing in guiding<\/strong> the market sentiment<\/strong> and oil prices, with the Fed\u2019s interest<\/strong> rate decision in sight<\/strong>. In this report, we aim to shed light on the factors driving WTI\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil traders look to next week\u2019s interest rate decision by the FED<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Traders may be shifting<\/strong> their attention to next week\u2019s Fed<\/strong> interest rate<\/strong> decision<\/strong>. The monetary<\/strong> policy meeting<\/strong> by the FOMC<\/strong> next week may play a key role in oil\u2019s prices<\/strong>. The Fed\u2019s interest rate decision may provide a future outlook<\/strong> into how demand<\/strong> for oil<\/strong> will play out, where should the Fed<\/strong> continue its aggressive<\/strong> rate hiking<\/strong> policy, we may see demand<\/strong> decrease<\/strong> as the Fed tightens its grip<\/strong> on the economy<\/strong> and thus reducing<\/strong> the price<\/strong> of crude<\/strong>. Whereas should the Fed<\/strong> pause<\/strong> or in the extreme scenario cut<\/strong> interest rates<\/strong>, it may ease<\/strong> the noose<\/strong> around the US economy<\/strong>, which could facilitate<\/strong> an in increase<\/strong> in economic<\/strong> activity<\/strong>, hence<\/strong> increasing<\/strong> the price of oil<\/strong> through higher demand<\/strong> factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OPEC+ meeting seems to maintain the status quo<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last, week<\/strong> we highlighted<\/strong> the potential<\/strong> outcomes<\/strong> from the OPEC+<\/strong> meeting<\/strong>, in which we correctly<\/strong> anticipated<\/strong> that Saudi Arabia<\/strong> will push for further production<\/strong> cuts<\/strong>, yet it appears that the further voluntary<\/strong> production<\/strong> cuts<\/strong> by Saudi<\/strong> Arabia<\/strong> by 1mn barrels<\/strong> of oil per day, seem to have had a minimal<\/strong> impact<\/strong> on the overall market<\/strong> sentiment<\/strong>. Furthermore, the voluntary<\/strong> production<\/strong> cut<\/strong> seems to have been underscored<\/strong> by the group\u2019s<\/strong> overall<\/strong> pushback<\/strong> on further<\/strong> production<\/strong> cuts<\/strong> and as such seemed to underscore<\/strong> the kingdom\u2019s<\/strong> attempts<\/strong> to keep oil<\/strong> prices<\/strong> at a higher<\/strong> level. However, brent<\/strong> \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0647\u200c\u06af\u0631\u0627\u0646<\/strong> may find a silver<\/strong> lining<\/strong>, as OPEC+<\/strong> announced that the oil<\/strong> production<\/strong> cuts<\/strong> of 3.66 million bpd in 2022 and the surprise cut of another 1.66 million bpd in April, will be extended<\/strong> into 2024.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s trade data troubles oil trader<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s trade balance<\/strong> that was released on Wednesday, seemed to indicate<\/strong> that the world\u2019s<\/strong> largest oil importer<\/strong> may be losing<\/strong> steam<\/strong>. Despite imports increasing, the exports<\/strong> figure<\/strong> was significantly<\/strong> lower<\/strong> than what was expected, coming in at -7.5% compared to the expected figure of -0.4%. The deterioration<\/strong> in exports<\/strong>, may hint that China\u2019s<\/strong> manufacturing<\/strong> economy<\/strong> is feeling<\/strong> the brunt<\/strong> impact of a reduction<\/strong> in global<\/strong> demand<\/strong> and as such the Chinese<\/strong> manufacturing<\/strong> economy<\/strong> may seea slowdown <\/strong>in itseconomy. In turn, a reduction<\/strong> in demand<\/strong> by China<\/strong> may have a significant<\/strong> impact<\/strong> on the price of oil<\/strong>, as the oil guzzling giant<\/strong> sees a reduction<\/strong> in demand<\/strong> for its exports<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u062a\u062c\u0632\u06cc\u0647 \u0648 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u06cc\u0644 \u0641\u0646\u06cc<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WTI Cash 4H Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n