{"id":107623,"date":"2025-04-02T10:51:21","date_gmt":"2025-04-02T07:51:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=107623"},"modified":"2025-04-02T10:51:22","modified_gmt":"2025-04-02T07:51:22","slug":"gold-outlook-trumps-liberation-day-is-upon-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/fr\/gold-outlook-trumps-liberation-day-is-upon-us\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Trump\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d is upon us"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since our last report<\/a>, gold bulls appear to still be in the driver’s seat with Trump\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d set to occur tomorrow on the 2nd of April. In today\u2019s report we are to have a look at the market uncertainty over the upcoming tariff announcement as well as the upcoming release of the US Employment data. For a rounder view we intend to conclude the report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLiberation Day\u201d set to occur tomorrow<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

President Trump\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day<\/strong>\u201d is set to occur tomorrow. The anticipation of widespread tariffs across the board has already influenced the precious metal\u2019s price and continues to do so, as no clear picture has emerged over the extent and degree of the President\u2019s tariff ambitions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier on today, the Washington Post<\/strong> reported that Trump\u2019s aides are drafting a proposal that would impose a 20% tariff on at least most imports to the United States. The full scope and imposition to occur may be seen tomorrow with President Trump\u2019s announcement from the Rose Garden at the White House<\/strong>, yet we must stress that a proposal is still a proposal and could still change. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet, despite the announcement set to occur tomorrow, the tariff picture remains blurry and frankly still uncertain with President Trump stating that \u201cWe\u2019re going to be very nice, relatively speaking, we\u2019re going to be very kind\u201d, implying that some countries may remain unscathed or may face \u2018favourable terms\u2019 depending on their approach. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, with the situation being as dynamic as it currently is, EU Commission President Von Der Layen<\/strong> has entered the mix, with Euronews reporting that Von Der Layen stated that \u201cWe have everything we need to protect our people and our prosperity. We have the largest Single Market in the world. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have the strength to negotiate. We have the power to push back\u201d. Overall, it appears that the US is not preparing to back down from their tariff threats and in return its trade partners are preparing to retaliate in what may be an all-out trade war which may severely dampen the global economic outlook, as well as aiding a potential resurgence of inflation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, in our view US Government<\/strong> may be attempting to gain leverage over its trading partners first before moving into the negotiation stage but even so, it appears that other nation\u2019s may not be backing down from the fight and thus we remain vigilant in regards to any announcement for possible leeway in trade negotiations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence, the continued uncertainty may funnel safe haven inflows into gold\u2019s price given its status as a safe haven asset and as a hedge against inflation. In conclusion, we would not be surprised to see gold\u2019s price moving higher, as the situation continues to unfold and its true impact on the economy remains to be seen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Employment data to add a twist to the week<\/strong>\u00a0 <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The US Employment data for March<\/strong>, which is set to be released on Friday, adds a twist to an already interesting week, as we have discussed in our previous paragraph. The current expectations are for the NFP figure to come in at 128k, the unemployment rate at 4.2% and the average earnings on a year-on-year basis to come in at 3.9%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

All three measures of the employment market in the US\u00a0could imply a loosening labour market should they come in as expected or lower, as the prior month\u2019s NFP figure was 151k the unemployment rate at 4.1% and the average hourly earnings rate at 4.0%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence, the implications of a loosening labour market, could spark concerns over the resiliency of the US economy, potentially fueling talks about a possible recession. Therefore, should the employment data for March showcase a loosening labour market, it may aid gold\u2019s price as it it considered to be a hedge during times of uncertainty. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, should the employment data exceed expectations and showcase a resilient labour market or cast doubt on our aforementioned scenario it may instead weigh on the precious metal\u2019s price.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD 4H Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Gold<\/figure>\n\n\n\n