{"id":35883,"date":"2022-08-10T12:10:25","date_gmt":"2022-08-10T09:10:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=35883"},"modified":"2025-12-10T09:43:04","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T07:43:04","slug":"equities-outlook-lazy-stockmarkets-in-august","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/fr\/equities-outlook-lazy-stockmarkets-in-august\/","title":{"rendered":"Equities Outlook \u2013 Lazy stockmarkets in August?"},"content":{"rendered":"

US<\/strong> stockmarkets<\/strong> tended to remain rather inactive<\/strong> since the start<\/strong> of the week<\/strong>, given also that we are in the holiday<\/strong> period<\/strong> for the US<\/strong> but also other<\/strong> parts<\/strong> of the world<\/strong>, yet Volatilit\u00e9<\/strong> could reemerge<\/strong> altering<\/strong> the direction<\/strong> of stocks<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

July\u2019s US employment report weakens US stockmarkets<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It should be noted that Volatilit\u00e9<\/strong> was on display<\/strong> on Friday<\/strong> as US stockmarkets<\/strong> retreated<\/strong> substantially<\/strong>. The driving<\/strong> force<\/strong> behind the movement<\/strong> was the release<\/strong> of the US<\/strong> employment<\/strong> report<\/strong> for July<\/strong>, which showed<\/strong> some solid<\/strong> rates<\/strong> et figures<\/strong> for the US employment market<\/strong> in the past month<\/strong>. We note that that the NFP<\/strong> figure<\/strong> did not<\/strong> drop<\/strong> as expected<\/strong>, instead jumped<\/strong> to twice<\/strong> the number<\/strong> of jobs<\/strong> the market<\/strong> anticipated<\/strong> to be released<\/strong>, reaching 528k. Also the unemployment<\/strong> rate<\/strong> ticked<\/strong> down<\/strong> implying<\/strong> that the US<\/strong> employment<\/strong> market<\/strong> remains tight<\/strong> and the average<\/strong> earnings<\/strong> growth<\/strong> rate<\/strong> remained<\/strong> unchanged<\/strong> instead of slowing<\/strong> down<\/strong> on a year on year level, as was expected<\/strong>, implying that wages<\/strong> are to continue to feed<\/strong> inflationary<\/strong> pressures<\/strong> in the US<\/strong> economy<\/strong>. So in a nutshell<\/strong>le release<\/strong> showed<\/strong> that there is still, even marginally<\/strong>le possibility<\/strong> for further<\/strong> tightening<\/strong> and the US employment market<\/strong> extended it\u2019s ability<\/strong> to create<\/strong> new jobs<\/strong> while also it\u2019s still feeding<\/strong> inflationary<\/strong> pressures<\/strong> in the US<\/strong> economy<\/strong>. On a monetary<\/strong> level<\/strong>le release<\/strong> intensified<\/strong> market<\/strong> expectations<\/strong> for the Fed<\/strong> to continue<\/strong> to hike<\/strong> rates at a fast<\/strong> pace<\/strong>. Furthermore we would note that Fed<\/strong> Governor<\/strong> Bowman<\/strong> stated, that additional 75 basis<\/strong> points rate hikes<\/strong> could be considered<\/strong> from the Fed<\/strong> in order to bring<\/strong> inflation<\/strong> down<\/strong> to 2%. Overall and given that the Fed\u2019s<\/strong> intentions<\/strong> to drain<\/strong> the market<\/strong> from excess<\/strong> liquidity<\/strong> remain unchanged<\/strong>, even<\/strong> with the risk<\/strong> of the US<\/strong> economy<\/strong> entering<\/strong> a recession<\/strong>, we may see the market<\/strong> sentiment<\/strong> remaining risk<\/strong> averse<\/strong>, which could weaken<\/strong> US<\/strong> stockmarkets<\/strong> as it would imply less<\/strong> investment<\/strong> opportunities<\/strong> and possibly even weaker<\/strong> earnings<\/strong> results<\/strong> in the coming<\/strong> months<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

July\u2019s US CPI rates the next big test<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The next big<\/strong> test<\/strong> is expected to be the release of the US CPI rates<\/strong> for July<\/strong> today<\/strong> the 10\u00a0 <\/sup> of August. The headline<\/strong> rates<\/strong> are expected to slow<\/strong> down<\/strong> both on a month on month<\/strong> level as well as on a year on year<\/strong> level and reach 0.2% mom and 8.7% yoy respectively. Should the actual<\/strong> rates<\/strong> slow down<\/strong> as expected<\/strong>, it could signal<\/strong> a big<\/strong> win<\/strong> for the Fed<\/strong> and its efforts<\/strong> to curb<\/strong> inflationary<\/strong> pressures<\/strong>. On a market<\/strong> reaction<\/strong> level the release<\/strong>, if<\/strong> the forecasts<\/strong> are realised<\/strong>, could support<\/strong> US<\/strong> stockmarkets<\/strong> as it would imply that the pressure<\/strong> on the Fed<\/strong> to continue<\/strong> to hike<\/strong> rates<\/strong> at a fast pace<\/strong> could ease<\/strong>, given that the slow down<\/strong> may imply<\/strong> that inflation<\/strong> has peaked<\/strong> and may have started to roll<\/strong> back<\/strong> down<\/strong> to the bank\u2019s<\/strong> target<\/strong> of 2% yoy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elon Musk sells Tesla shares<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In the current<\/strong> headlines<\/strong> we note the news that Elon<\/strong> Musk<\/strong> sold<\/strong> 7.92 million<\/strong> Tesla<\/strong> actions<\/strong> worth $6.88 billion. It seems that the sale<\/strong> was related<\/strong> to the Twitter<\/strong> deal<\/strong>, as when asked if he was done<\/strong> selling<\/strong> actions<\/strong> of Tesla<\/strong> and has any intentions<\/strong> to buyback<\/strong> actions<\/strong> he replied that \u201cYes. In the (hopefully unlikely<\/strong>) event<\/strong> that Twitter<\/strong> forces<\/strong> this deal<\/strong> to close<\/strong> and some equity<\/strong> partners<\/strong> don\u2019t come through<\/strong>, it is important<\/strong> to avoid<\/strong> an emergency<\/strong> sale<\/strong> of Tesla<\/strong> stock<\/strong>.\u201d. It\u2019s important to note that the share<\/strong> sale<\/strong> was performed<\/strong> between the 5\u00a0 <\/sup> and 9\u00a0 <\/sup> of August according to SEC<\/strong> filings<\/strong>, as reported<\/strong> by CNBC<\/strong>. It should also be noted that Elon<\/strong> Musk<\/strong> had stated<\/strong> near the end<\/strong> of last<\/strong> April<\/strong> that no<\/strong> further<\/strong> Tesla<\/strong> shares are planned to be sold<\/strong>. The inconsistency<\/strong> is a bit worrying<\/strong> and may strengthen<\/strong> expectations<\/strong> that Twitter<\/strong> will be able<\/strong> to enforce<\/strong> the deal<\/strong> which if actually<\/strong> so could<\/strong> provide<\/strong> some further<\/strong> support<\/strong> for its share<\/strong> price<\/strong>, after the boost<\/strong> it got on the 5\u00a0 <\/sup> of August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US 30 Cash, H4 Chart<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"EU\/USD<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Support: 32400 (S1), 31400 (S2), 30150 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance: 33110 (R1), 34150 (R2), 35300 (R3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We decided to keep the technique<\/strong> analysis<\/strong> of the Dow Jones<\/strong> for comparison<\/strong> reasons<\/strong> in regards to our last report, yet made some slight<\/strong> re-adjustments<\/strong> of the support<\/strong> levels<\/strong> to better reflect the boundaries<\/strong> set by the index\u2019s<\/strong> movement<\/strong>.  Overall the index<\/strong> maintained its sideways<\/strong> motion<\/strong> between the 33110 (R1) resistance<\/strong> line<\/strong> and the 32400 (S1) support<\/strong> level<\/strong>. It should be noted that the index<\/strong> in its sideways<\/strong> motion<\/strong> broke<\/strong> the upward<\/strong> trendline<\/strong> incepted since the 14\u00a0 <\/sup> of July, forcing<\/strong> us to switch<\/strong> our bullish<\/strong> outlook<\/strong> in favour of a sideways<\/strong> movement<\/strong> currently, between the prementioned<\/strong> levels<\/strong> and change our outlook<\/strong> we would require<\/strong> a clear<\/strong> breaking<\/strong> of either of them. Please also note that the RSI<\/strong> indicator<\/strong> is running<\/strong> along<\/strong> the reading<\/strong> of 50<\/strong> also implying a rather indecisive<\/strong> market<\/strong>, while the Bollinger<\/strong> bands<\/strong> have narrowed<\/strong> et levelled<\/strong> out<\/strong>, also implying for the time being a sideways<\/strong> motion<\/strong>. Yet should the bulls<\/strong> take over, we may see the index clearly breaking the 33110<\/strong> (R1) resistance<\/strong> line<\/strong> and take aim for the 34150<\/strong> (R2) level<\/strong> that has reversed<\/strong> the index\u2019s upward<\/strong> motion<\/strong> on the 5\u00a0 <\/sup> of May. On the flip<\/strong> side<\/strong> should the bears<\/strong> dominate<\/strong> the index\u2019s<\/strong> direction<\/strong>, we may see it breaking the  32400<\/strong> (S1) support<\/strong> line which forms the lower<\/strong> boundary<\/strong> of the current<\/strong> sideways<\/strong> motion<\/strong> and take aim of the 31400<\/strong> (S2) support<\/strong> line<\/strong> that provided resistance<\/strong> on the 8\u00a0 <\/sup> of July, yet as the price<\/strong> action<\/strong> has risen above it, has switched roles into being a support<\/strong> level<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si vous avez des questions d'ordre g\u00e9n\u00e9ral ou des commentaires concernant cet article, veuillez envoyer un email directement \u00e0 notre \u00e9quipe de recherche \u00e0 l'adresse <\/i> research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avertissement :
Ces informations ne doivent pas \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme un conseil ou une recommandation d'investissement, mais uniquement comme une communication marketing. IronFX n'est pas responsable des donn\u00e9es ou informations fournies par des tiers r\u00e9f\u00e9renc\u00e9s, ou en lien hypertexte, dans cette communication.<\/i><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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