{"id":52024,"date":"2023-01-12T15:34:42","date_gmt":"2023-01-12T13:34:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=52024"},"modified":"2025-10-17T12:49:09","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T09:49:09","slug":"wti-lifted-by-chinas-reopening-prospects","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/fr\/wti-lifted-by-chinas-reopening-prospects\/","title":{"rendered":"WTI lifted by China\u2019s reopening prospects"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This week, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/en\/wti-sheds-more-than-9-in-first-two-trading-days-of-2023\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>crude prices<\/strong><\/a> <strong>started<\/strong> <strong>recovering<\/strong> from their steep fall, suffered in the first couple sessions of 2023 and <strong>pared<\/strong> most of their <strong>weekly losses<\/strong>, as <strong>improved sentiment<\/strong> alongside <strong>prospects for a rebound in energy consumption from China\u2019s reopening<\/strong> <strong>sustained<\/strong> <strong>WTI\u2019s ascend<\/strong>. Paradoxically, grim <strong>forecasts<\/strong> by the <strong>World Bank<\/strong> for the global economy and <strong>unexpected buildups<\/strong> in both EIA and API <strong>crude<\/strong> <strong>oil<\/strong> <strong>inventories<\/strong> appeared to have <strong>minimal impact of WTI<\/strong> prices. Regardless, energy traders will be paying attention to the <strong>US inflation report<\/strong> later due out later today which is expected to <strong>cool<\/strong> and could validate their assessment for an <strong>extension of crude prices to the upside<\/strong>. In this report we aim to shed light on the catalysts driving WTI\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Prospects for a rebound in energy consumption lift WTI<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><strong>WTI<\/strong> prices <strong>found<\/strong> <strong>support<\/strong> from revamped hopes for a <strong>strong comeback from China<\/strong>, which appears committed at shedding away its <strong>strict zero covid policy<\/strong> and return to normalization. The prospects for <strong>increased demand<\/strong> for <strong>crude<\/strong> has been the major driver behind the recent jump of oil prices, yet analysts caution that the <strong>reopening plans<\/strong> may be impeded as <strong>surging covid<\/strong> cases pile up across major Chinese cities. More recently, the <strong>World Health Organization<\/strong> expressed concerns related to data gathering practices from Chinese authorities regarding infections, deeming them plain \u201cunreliable\u201d. Moreover, <strong>oil traders do not seem to be fazed<\/strong> by the recent comments from <strong>IMF<\/strong> and the <strong>World Bank<\/strong>, which more or less delivered a strikingly similar message. Both organizations <strong>forecast<\/strong> that the <strong>global economy will face serious hurdles in 2023<\/strong> as <strong>economic activity<\/strong> stemming from the world\u2019s strongest powerhouses, the US , Europe and China, is <strong>expected to slowdown<\/strong> considerably. The <strong>IMF<\/strong> placed particular emphasis on China\u2019s growth projections and warned that \u201cfor the next couple of months, it would be tough for China, and the impact on Chinese growth would be negative\u201d and highlighted that surging infection cases across the country are expected to hurt the economy, impacting growth on the domestic as well as on the international level. Despite the comments, <strong>traders\u2019 short-term outlook<\/strong> <strong>for<\/strong> <strong>crude<\/strong> <strong>appears<\/strong> to broadcast <strong>bullish undertones<\/strong> for the time being.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Crude oil inventories data record huge buildups <\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Evidently this week, we observed a <strong>deviation<\/strong> from <strong>underlying fundamental<\/strong> <strong>catalysts<\/strong> of <strong>WTI<\/strong> <strong>et<\/strong> <strong>its<\/strong> <strong>prices<\/strong>, as in theory we would have <strong>expected<\/strong> <strong>oil prices to ease<\/strong>, since data from both <strong>API<\/strong> et <strong>EIA<\/strong> <strong>agencies<\/strong> reported incredulous <strong>buildups<\/strong> in their <strong>inventories<\/strong> over the past week. More specifically, on Tuesday the weekly <strong>API crude oil inventories<\/strong> figure pointed to an <strong>oversized buildup<\/strong> of 14.8 million barrels in stocks and similarly, yesterday <strong>EIA\u2019s weekly oil inventories<\/strong> recorded an <strong>even larger a buildup<\/strong> of almost 19 million barrels of crude for the same period. The results suggest <strong>weakening demand<\/strong> <strong>for<\/strong> <strong>crude<\/strong> which should have translated into <strong>weakness for WTI prices<\/strong>. The EIA\u2019s reported figure of 19 million barrels, ranks as the <strong>third largest weekly buildup ever recorded<\/strong>. A possible explanation for the unexpected reaction could be that market participants are <strong>placing more weight<\/strong> on the prospects for <strong>China\u2019s reopening<\/strong>, <strong>cancelling<\/strong> <strong>out<\/strong> in a way the <strong>expected negative reaction<\/strong> from crude stock buildups.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Key US inflation data incoming<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Tomorrow, the <strong>energy traders<\/strong> will be sitting at the edge of their seats awaiting patiently for the release of the December\u2019s CPI print which is expected to provide an <strong>update on the inflationary problem<\/strong> in the US. According to estimates, the December\u2019s year on year CPI rate is expected to decelerate to 6.5% from the last month\u2019s 7.1%. Furthermore, the year-on-year Core CPI rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also for the same month, is set to ease to 5.7% from the 6.0% recorded in the previous month. Should the actual rates meet the expectations, that would imply that <strong>inflationary pressures are abiding<\/strong> and may ultimately <strong>incentivize the Fed to slow down the pace<\/strong> of its <strong>interest rates hikes<\/strong>. The <strong>prospect<\/strong> for <strong>smaller<\/strong> <strong>hikes<\/strong> to come may therefore drive the <strong>dollar lower<\/strong> and could as a result <strong>boost oil<\/strong> <strong>demand<\/strong>, as it makes <strong>crude cheaper for buyers holding other currencies<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h2>Analyser la technique<\/h2>\n<h3><strong>WTI Cash H4<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-52050\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/xau-usd-4h-chart-12-01-2023-technical-analysis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"385\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Looking at <strong>WTICash<\/strong> 4-hour chart we observe <strong>oil prices finding a floor<\/strong> around the $74 per barrel during last week, which laid the ground for the subsequent rise and break of the previous 76.60 <strong>resistance<\/strong> level now <strong>turned<\/strong> (S1) <strong>support<\/strong>. We hold a <strong>bullish outlook bias<\/strong> for <strong>crude<\/strong> prices and supporting our case is the <strong>RSI indicator<\/strong> below our 4-hour chart which currently registers a value of 67, highlighting the <strong>positive sentiment surrounding the commodity<\/strong>. Adding to our case, is the break above the <strong>upper bound<\/strong> of the <strong>Bollinger band<\/strong>, signaling that the <strong>bulls are in control<\/strong>. We have to note nonetheless, that the results of the <strong>US CPI print<\/strong> due out later today, can influence the price action significantly. Should the <strong>bulls reign<\/strong>, we may see the <strong>break<\/strong> above the 80.00 (R1) <strong>resistance<\/strong> level and the price action moving higher, closer to the 83.00 (R2) <strong>resistance<\/strong> <strong>barrier<\/strong>. Should on the other hand the <strong>bears<\/strong> <strong>take<\/strong> <strong>over<\/strong>, we may see the price action fall below the 76.60 (S1) <strong>support<\/strong> level and move <strong>decisively<\/strong> lower, towards the 73.50 (S2) <strong>support<\/strong> <strong>base<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"translation-block\">Si vous avez des questions d'ordre g\u00e9n\u00e9ral ou des commentaires concernant cet article, veuillez envoyer un email directement \u00e0 notre \u00e9quipe de recherche \u00e0 l'adresse <a href=\"mailto:research_team@ironfx.com\">research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>Avertissement :<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Ces informations ne doivent pas \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme un conseil ou une recommandation d'investissement, mais uniquement comme une communication marketing.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week, crude prices started recovering from their steep fall&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[404,380,403],"class_list":["post-52024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-oil-market","tag-oil-price","blog-category-commodities","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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