{"id":57776,"date":"2023-03-15T16:13:57","date_gmt":"2023-03-15T14:13:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=57776"},"modified":"2025-10-13T14:36:16","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T11:36:16","slug":"equities-outlook-svbs-collapse-puts-global-banking-industry-on-red-alert","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/fr\/equities-outlook-svbs-collapse-puts-global-banking-industry-on-red-alert\/","title":{"rendered":"Equities report: SVB\u2019s collapse puts global banking industry on red alert"},"content":{"rendered":"

Panic ensures across the banking industry<\/strong> after Silicon Valley Bank\u2019s collapse<\/strong> last week and market now turns its attention towards Credit Suisse<\/strong>, since the absolute categorical denial for additional funding<\/strong> from its largest investor<\/strong> led its stock to plunge to all-time lows<\/strong> et sparked<\/strong> a worldwide trust and confidence crisis<\/strong> for banking institutions<\/strong>. In this report we aim to present the recent fondamental<\/strong> et economic news releases<\/strong> that impacted<\/strong> the US stock markets<\/strong>, look ahead at the upcoming events<\/strong> that could affect their performance<\/strong> and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Credit Suisse\u2019s plunge hurts the market\u2019s psychology<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Following the tumultuous events of last week where Silicon Valley Bank collapsed<\/strong> due to insufficient funds<\/strong> to meet depositors<\/strong> needs, analysts started to ponder; Who\u2019s next? Credit Suisse<\/strong> has been under the spotlight over the past six months for all the wrong reasons. The bank recorded a massive loss in 2022<\/strong> and it is undergoing a restructuring process<\/strong> which aims to lift the bank<\/strong> from its slump, re-emerging from the ashes anew. The market<\/strong> however had adopted a reluctant<\/strong> et cautious <\/strong>stance against<\/strong> the Swiss bank<\/strong> and its share price<\/strong> has been slowly but steadily shedding value week after week<\/strong>. As SVB failure<\/strong> sent shockwaves<\/strong> across the global banking sector<\/strong>le pressure<\/strong> on the bank intensified<\/strong>. Yesterday, the Credit Suisse CEO Ulrich Koerner<\/strong>, attempted to calm the markets nerves<\/strong> during a Bloomberg interview<\/strong> and openly asked from investors to trust the process<\/strong>. He stated that the bank<\/strong> has been implementing its transformation plans<\/strong> and more time<\/strong> is<\/strong> needed<\/strong> for the appropriate results to surface. He added that following the SVB<\/strong> upheaval<\/strong>, the bank saw material inflows<\/strong> on Monday<\/strong>, which were apprehended as a positive sign<\/strong> according to the CEO<\/strong> and the statement somewhat cushioned<\/strong> the intraday fall<\/strong>.\u00a0 Little did he know of what was to follow. Earlier today, Wednesday<\/strong>, Credit Suisse\u2019s largest investor the Saudi National Bank<\/strong>, with a 9.88% ownership stake<\/strong>, delivered a devasting blow<\/strong> which pushed the stock<\/strong> over the edge, causing it to free fall into its all-time lows<\/strong>. SNB\u2019s Chairman Ammar Al Khudairy<\/strong>, explicitly stated<\/strong> that they won\u2019t be providing any additional capital aid<\/strong> to the distressed Credit Suisse<\/strong> due to regulatory<\/strong> et statutory reasons<\/strong>. The resolute denial<\/strong> from the biggest credit line of Credit Suisse<\/strong>, flashed the green light to the market<\/strong> to move in for the kill<\/strong> et sparked<\/strong> a confidence crisis<\/strong> for the entire European banking industry<\/strong>. Banks<\/strong> across the bloc<\/strong> got hammered<\/strong> today, with the majority<\/strong> of the European banking sector plunging in the reds<\/strong> after yesterday\u2019s brief breather. BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale, Commerzbank, UBS<\/strong>, and many other banking institutions<\/strong> continue to bleed profusely<\/strong>, et bulls<\/strong> appear reluctant<\/strong> to engage to halt the drop<\/strong>, at least for the time being. Similar moves<\/strong> but of lesser magnitude<\/strong> can be seen across the \u00c9tats-Unis<\/strong><\/strong> with names such as JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs<\/strong> and others feeling the heat<\/strong>. Analysts<\/strong> now expect the Swiss government<\/strong> et regulators<\/strong> to jump in and address the situation<\/strong>, preventing mass panic<\/strong> from spreading<\/strong> across the entire banking industry<\/strong>. Response<\/strong> from the regulators<\/strong> is of outmost importance<\/strong> since the bank<\/strong> is a global institution<\/strong> with exposure<\/strong> in most developed economies<\/strong> and failure to contain the panic<\/strong> may very well harbor severe implications worldwide<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SVB\u2019s fallout scatters money markets projections<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Market consensus<\/strong> about the Fed\u2019s hiking path<\/strong> forward radically changed<\/strong> since last week<\/strong>. Following Fed Chair Powell\u2019s comments<\/strong>le market<\/strong> shifted <\/strong>their outlooks<\/strong> reflecting the hawkish prospects of the Fed<\/strong>, once the door for a larger magnitude hike <\/strong>sprung open. As a result, we saw the market shifting their projections<\/strong>, bracing<\/strong> for 50 basis points<\/strong> hike in the March meeting<\/strong>. As soon as the SVB\u2019s collapse<\/strong> headlines hit however, the market quickly downgraded<\/strong> their projections<\/strong> for the 50 basis points hike<\/strong> et opted<\/strong> for a 25 basis points hike scenario<\/strong>, reverting to pre-Powell speech outlooks<\/strong>. After the weekend and the Federal Reserve, FDIC and the Treasury department\u2019s joint decision<\/strong> to step in and ensure<\/strong> that depositors<\/strong> would get back their money back, we saw a complete 180 degree turn from the market<\/strong>, dismissing<\/strong> the 25-basis points scenario<\/strong> all together and ended up pricing<\/strong> in that the Fed would stay on hold<\/strong> in the February meeting<\/strong>. Yesterday, the market was split equally<\/strong> between no hike and 25 basis points<\/strong> scenarios in anticipation of the inflation report<\/strong> et after the report<\/strong> they favored<\/strong> the scenario of 25bps<\/strong>. Earlier today, after Credit Suisse\u2019s confidence crisis<\/strong> and the plunge of its share price to all time lows<\/strong>, worries<\/strong> for contagion<\/strong> echoed across the European continent<\/strong> and led money market analysts<\/strong> to once again consider the no hike scenario<\/strong> by the Fed<\/strong>. The underlying message from these observations is that the market<\/strong> has no clue on what\u2019s to follow as we inch closer to the Fed meeting<\/strong> and further developments<\/strong> from the SVB case and Credit Suisse<\/strong>, alongside the results from crucial US related data<\/strong> may be needed<\/strong> for more accurate assessments<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analyser la technique<\/u><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

#US30 4Hour Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Support: 31800 (S1), 31100 (S2), 30300 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance: 32600 (R1), 33500 (R2), 34500 (R3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at #US30 4-hour chart<\/strong> we observe<\/strong> the index extending<\/strong> its fall<\/strong> between<\/strong> the descending channel\u2019s bounds<\/strong> and is currently trading dangerously close<\/strong> to the 31800 (S1) support base<\/strong>. We hold a bearish outlook bias<\/strong> for the index<\/strong> given the probabilities for a potential spillover from Credit Suisse<\/strong> and supporting our case is the RSI<\/strong> indicator below our 4-hour chart that currently registers a reading of 37, highlighting the negative sentiment<\/strong> surrounding the Dow<\/strong>. Should the bears reign<\/strong> over, we may see the definitive break below the 31800 (R1) resistance level<\/strong> and the lower bound of the descending channel<\/strong> alongside the possible break below the 31100 (S2) support base<\/strong>. Under extreme scenario<\/strong> we may also see the price action heading lower, closer to the 30300 (S3) support range<\/strong> which was last visited during October of 2022. Should on the other hand, the bulls take the initiative<\/strong>, we may see the break above the 32600 (R1) resistance level<\/strong>, the break of the upper bound of the descending<\/strong> channel<\/strong> and the move near the 33500 (R2) resistance barrier<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si vous avez des questions d'ordre g\u00e9n\u00e9ral ou des commentaires concernant cet article, veuillez envoyer un email directement \u00e0 notre \u00e9quipe de recherche \u00e0 l'adresse research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avertissement :
Ces informations ne doivent pas \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme un conseil ou une recommandation d'investissement, mais uniquement comme une communication marketing. IronFX n'est pas responsable des donn\u00e9es ou informations fournies par des tiers r\u00e9f\u00e9renc\u00e9s, ou en lien hypertexte, dans cette communication.<\/i><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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