{"id":58217,"date":"2023-03-22T16:27:54","date_gmt":"2023-03-22T14:27:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=58217"},"modified":"2025-10-13T14:11:40","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T11:11:40","slug":"equities-outlook-equity-traders-brace-for-fed-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/fr\/equities-outlook-equity-traders-brace-for-fed-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"Equities report: Equity traders brace for Fed impact"},"content":{"rendered":"

US stock markets<\/strong> managed to contain their fall last week, found support and rebounded<\/strong> to higher ground, as the turmoil<\/strong> from sequential bank<\/strong> collapses<\/strong> and the fear for contagion<\/strong> across the globe, hurt the greenback<\/strong> which was translated into increased risk-taking<\/strong> behavior from equity traders<\/strong>.  In this report we aim to present the recent fundamental and economic news releases that impacted the US stock markets<\/strong>, look ahead at the upcoming events that could affect their performance and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets await patiently for the Fed\u2019s decision<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In today\u2019s American session the star of the day will be the FED\u2019s interest rate decision<\/strong> and the market\u2019s expectations seem to have solidified. It\u2019s characteristic that FFF<\/strong> are predicting an 80% probability of a hike<\/strong> by 25 basis points<\/strong>. There was a lot of speculation in regards to how the FED<\/strong> would react following the mini-banking crisis<\/strong> that plagued the US economy in the past few weeks. Most notable were SVB<\/strong> et Silvergate<\/strong> whose collapses spread contagion fears<\/strong> across numerous banks in Europe, such as Credit Suisse<\/strong> which led to its acquisition from its long-term rival UBS<\/strong>. The implications were potentially catastrophic, as many feared this could upend strategic plans laid by the ECB <\/strong>et FED<\/strong> in order to combat inflation. However, following the ECB\u2019s decision<\/strong> to hike rates by 50 basis points<\/strong> and the swift action followed by SNB<\/strong> for Credit Suisse<\/strong>, the market anticipates that the FED<\/strong> could follow suit<\/strong> with its respective tightening plans<\/strong>, not of the same magnitude, however. Hence instead of not<\/strong> staying on hold<\/strong> and in fear of worsening the already delicate financial situation, the Fed<\/strong> may opt for the moderate 25 basis points hike<\/strong> scenario, so that the bank may continue to pursue its inflationary goal<\/strong> of 2%, without overstressing the Banking industry.<\/strong> Besides the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision<\/strong> as such, we also highlight the release of the  <\/strong> which includes its forward guidance.<\/strong> Should the bank ease its aggressive<\/strong> hawkish stance<\/strong> and show some hesitation about its future rate hiking path, we may see the USD weakening,<\/strong> a scenario that highlights the possibility of an interest rate hike turning to a dovish hike<\/strong>. That therefore could inadvertently lead on equity<\/strong> traders<\/strong> to indulge in riskier behavior<\/strong>, and we may see stock markets<\/strong> head to higher ground. Furthermore, markets will also focus on the release of the new dot plot<\/strong>, which is expected to broadcast where FOMC policymakers<\/strong> see the terminal rate peak<\/strong>. Should the terminal rate remain above market expectations we may see a bullish sentiment surrounding<\/strong> the USD<\/strong>, whereas downplay optimistic scenarios<\/strong> for a rally in the equities sectors<\/strong>. Also, we note the release of the bank\u2019s new economic projections<\/strong>. It will be interesting to see whether the Fed<\/strong> anticipates a recession in the US economy or not. Should the projections point out that the central bank foresees that the US economy is to avoid a recession<\/strong> or even encounter<\/strong> a rather<\/strong> shallow<\/strong> one, that may allow for the USD<\/strong> to gain<\/strong> somewhat. Last but not least, we also note Fed<\/strong> Chairman Jerome Powell\u2019s<\/strong> press conference post the decision. The Fed\u2019s Chairman<\/strong> comments after a decision are notorious for igniting market volatility<\/strong> and outright cause a reversal<\/strong> in market sentiment<\/strong>, therefore we advise caution in regards to USD-linked pairs<\/strong>. Should the Fed Chairman<\/strong> actually sound hawkish<\/strong> enough, we may see the greenback<\/strong> getting some support<\/strong> and highlighting once again that the decision may have ripple effects into equities<\/strong> markets<\/strong> depending on the outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analyser la technique<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

#US30 4Hour Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Support: 31800 (S1), 31100 (S2), 30300 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance: 32600 (R1), 33500 (R2), 34500 (R3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at #US30 4-hour chart<\/strong> we observe the index<\/strong> consolidating<\/strong> around the 31800 (S1) support<\/strong> base over the past week and bouncing higher, closing in the 32600 (R1) resistance<\/strong> barrier ahead of today\u2019s Fed<\/strong>  <\/strong>. We hold a sideways<\/strong> bias<\/strong> for the index, ahead of today\u2019s decision, awaiting for the results and advising caution. The RSI<\/strong> indicator below our 4-hour chart that currently registers a reading of 58, which showcases slight bullish sentiment<\/strong> in favour of the index<\/strong>, yet the price action remains bounded between the descending channels\u2019 bounds<\/strong>. Should the bulls take over<\/strong>, we may see the break above the 32600 (R1) resistance<\/strong> level and the upper bound of the descending channel<\/strong> alongside the move of the index<\/strong> closer to the 33500 (R2) resistance barrier<\/strong>. In an extremely volatile scenario we may also see the price action rising closer to the 34500 (R3) level. Should the bears reign over<\/strong> on the other hand, we may see the definitive break below the 31800 (S1) support<\/strong> level and the lower bound of the descending channel<\/strong>, alongside the possible break below the 31100 (S2) support base<\/strong>. Under extreme scenario we may also see the price action heading lower, closer to the 30300 (S3) support range which was last visited during October of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si vous avez des questions d'ordre g\u00e9n\u00e9ral ou des commentaires concernant cet article, veuillez envoyer un email directement \u00e0 notre \u00e9quipe de recherche \u00e0 l'adresse research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avertissement :
Ces informations ne doivent pas \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme un conseil ou une recommandation d'investissement, mais uniquement comme une communication marketing. IronFX n'est pas responsable des donn\u00e9es ou informations fournies par des tiers r\u00e9f\u00e9renc\u00e9s, ou en lien hypertexte, dans cette communication.<\/i><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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