{"id":64824,"date":"2023-06-21T15:00:19","date_gmt":"2023-06-21T12:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=64824"},"modified":"2024-08-26T11:43:29","modified_gmt":"2024-08-26T08:43:29","slug":"equities-report-equity-bulls-take-a-break","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/fr\/equities-report-equity-bulls-take-a-break\/","title":{"rendered":"Equities report: Equity bulls take a break"},"content":{"rendered":"

US<\/strong> stock<\/strong> markets<\/strong> tended to remain relatively<\/strong> unchanged<\/strong> in the past few days, maybe even edged a bit lower<\/strong>. We saw that the Fed\u2019s<\/strong> hawkish<\/strong> stance,<\/strong> despite skipping<\/strong> a rate<\/strong> hike<\/strong> in the past meeting<\/strong> had little<\/strong> effect<\/strong> on US<\/strong> stockmarkets<\/strong>. In this report, we aim to present the recent fondamental<\/strong> et economic<\/strong> news<\/strong> releases<\/strong> that impacted the US<\/strong> stock<\/strong> markets<\/strong>, look ahead at the upcoming<\/strong> \u00e9v\u00e9nements<\/strong> that could affect their performance<\/strong> and conclude with a technique<\/strong> analysis<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed\u2019s interest rate decision to remain on hold<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Fed<\/strong> last Wednesday<\/strong> decided to remain on hold<\/strong> as was widely anticipated<\/strong>. Furthermore, Fed<\/strong> Chair<\/strong> Powell<\/strong> reiterated on numerous occasions<\/strong> that despite remaining on hold<\/strong>, this does not mean that the Fed<\/strong> is done<\/strong> with hiking interest rates<\/strong>, thus leaving the door open<\/strong> for future<\/strong> rate hikes<\/strong>. Characteristically he also stated that rate cuts<\/strong> are \u201ca few years out\u201d which contradicted market expectations<\/strong> for the bank to proceed<\/strong> with rate cuts<\/strong> by the end<\/strong> of the year<\/strong>. Interestingly, the Dot plot<\/strong> moved higher<\/strong> released<\/strong> after the FOMC<\/strong> interest<\/strong> rate<\/strong> decision<\/strong>, with Fed policymakers<\/strong> now anticipating<\/strong> the Fed\u2019s<\/strong> terminal rate<\/strong> to be higher<\/strong> than what was previously<\/strong> anticipated<\/strong> with the median rate<\/strong> by the end<\/strong> of the year<\/strong> now being 5.6%<\/strong>, which would imply that the bank<\/strong> has still to deliver<\/strong> two more rate<\/strong> hikes<\/strong> before year\u2019s end and before pausing<\/strong> its rate<\/strong> hiking<\/strong> path<\/strong>. We would also like to highlight<\/strong> that in the banks\u2019<\/strong> projections<\/strong>, the possibility of a recession<\/strong> in the US<\/strong> economy<\/strong> seems to have been reduced<\/strong>, which in turn may<\/strong> provide some support<\/strong> for US stock markets<\/strong>. Overall though and for the time being we expect the bank<\/strong> to continue<\/strong> to lean<\/strong> on the hawkish<\/strong> side<\/strong> a scenario<\/strong> that could weigh<\/strong> on US equities markets<\/strong>. We would like to highlight<\/strong> as the next<\/strong> big<\/strong> test<\/strong> for US stock markets<\/strong> the testimony<\/strong> of Fed Chairman Powell<\/strong> before Congress<\/strong> and should he sound hawkish<\/strong> enough, we may see US<\/strong> stock markets<\/strong> retreating<\/strong> and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s rebound stalls<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sticking to equities<\/strong> fundamentals<\/strong> we note the market<\/strong> worries<\/strong> for the recovery<\/strong> of the Chinese<\/strong> economy<\/strong>. On a macroeconomic<\/strong> level<\/strong>, it should be noted that China\u2019s<\/strong> trade<\/strong> surplus<\/strong> narrowed<\/strong> to one-year lows<\/strong>, an indication<\/strong> of fewer<\/strong> international<\/strong> trading<\/strong> transactions<\/strong> and thus lesser<\/strong> wealth<\/strong> entering the Chinese<\/strong> economy<\/strong>. Yet that could be a consequence<\/strong> of the contraction<\/strong> of economic<\/strong> activity<\/strong> suffered by China\u2019s<\/strong> crucial<\/strong> manufacturing<\/strong> sector<\/strong>. It\u2019s characteristic that the Urban<\/strong> investment<\/strong>, industrial production<\/strong> et retail sales<\/strong> growth rates, all slowed dow<\/strong>n for May underscoring<\/strong> the difficulties<\/strong> faced by the Chinese economy<\/strong> on its road<\/strong> to recovery<\/strong>. For the time being, we note that the Central Bank of the People’s Republic of China<\/strong> cut<\/strong> lending<\/strong> rates<\/strong> in an effort<\/strong> to boost<\/strong> activity<\/strong> in the Chinese economy<\/strong>, yet the cuts<\/strong> delivered<\/strong> may not be sufficient<\/strong> to revive<\/strong> it<\/strong>. Overall should the difficulties<\/strong> for the Chinese<\/strong> economy<\/strong> to recover<\/strong> be extended<\/strong> we may see the market<\/strong> sentiment<\/strong> turning risk averse<\/strong>, as the optimism<\/strong> could be reduced<\/strong> with negative<\/strong> consequences<\/strong> for US stock markets<\/strong>. On a deeper level<\/strong>, we also note the conflicting<\/strong> messages<\/strong> sent on a political level<\/strong>. Despite the initial<\/strong> positive signals<\/strong> coming from US Foreign<\/strong> Secretary<\/strong> Blinken\u2019s<\/strong> visit<\/strong> to China<\/strong> that tensions<\/strong> between the two countries may start thawing<\/strong> or at least may not escalate further<\/strong>, US<\/strong> President Biden<\/strong> calling China\u2019s<\/strong> leader Xi<\/strong> as a \u201cdictator<\/strong>\u201d is not expected to go<\/strong> down well<\/strong> with the Chinese<\/strong>. Further escalations<\/strong> of tensions<\/strong> in the US-Sino<\/strong> relationships<\/strong> may intensify<\/strong> market worries<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analyser la technique<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

US100 (Nasdaq) Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Support: 14650 (S1), 13920 (S2), 13300 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance: 15300 (R1), 16000 (R2), 16750 (R3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nasdaq\u2019s<\/strong> rise<\/strong> over the past month<\/strong> seems to have hit a ceiling<\/strong> on the 15300 (R1) resistance<\/strong> line<\/strong> et corrected<\/strong> a bit lower<\/strong>. For the time being we view the consolidation<\/strong> of the index\u2019s<\/strong> price action<\/strong> as a mere correction<\/strong> for now, given that the upward<\/strong> trendline<\/strong> guiding the index<\/strong> remains intact<\/strong>. Furthermore please note that the RSI<\/strong> indicator<\/strong> despite correcting a bit lower<\/strong> is still above the reading<\/strong> of 70<\/strong> underscoring<\/strong> the bullish<\/strong> sentiment<\/strong> of the market<\/strong>, yet may also imply that the index<\/strong> is currently at overbought<\/strong> levels and needs to correct<\/strong> even lower<\/strong>. Please note that the consolidation<\/strong> lower of Nasdaq\u2019s<\/strong> price action<\/strong> began after it hit on the upper<\/strong> Bollinger band<\/strong>, which allowed for some room<\/strong> to be created<\/strong> between the price action<\/strong> and the upper<\/strong> Bollinger band<\/strong>, hence the bulls<\/strong> may have space to cover<\/strong>. Should the bulls<\/strong> maintain control<\/strong> over the index\u2019s<\/strong> direction<\/strong>, we may see Nasdaq<\/strong> breaking the 15300 (R1) resistance<\/strong> line<\/strong> and aim for the 16000 (R2) resistance<\/strong> barrier<\/strong>. On the flip side for a bearish<\/strong> outlook<\/strong> the current<\/strong> correction<\/strong> lower<\/strong> is not enough. To call<\/strong> in the bears<\/strong>, we would require<\/strong> Nasdaq<\/strong> to drop<\/strong> below<\/strong> the prementioned<\/strong> upward<\/strong> trendline<\/strong>, in a first sign<\/strong> that the upward<\/strong> movement<\/strong> has been interrupted<\/strong>, break the 14650 (S1) support<\/strong> line<\/strong> clearly<\/strong> and start aiming for the 13920 (S2) support<\/strong> level<\/strong>.        <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si vous avez des questions d'ordre g\u00e9n\u00e9ral ou des commentaires concernant cet article, veuillez envoyer un email directement \u00e0 notre \u00e9quipe de recherche \u00e0 l'adresse research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avertissement :
Ces informations ne doivent pas \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme un conseil ou une recommandation d'investissement, mais uniquement comme une communication marketing. IronFX n'est pas responsable des donn\u00e9es ou informations fournies par des tiers r\u00e9f\u00e9renc\u00e9s, ou en lien hypertexte, dans cette communication.<\/i><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US stock markets tended to remain relatively unchanged in the past few days, maybe even edged a bit lower. We<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-64824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEquities report: Equity bulls take a break<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"US stocks remain flat or slightly lower as Fed\u2019s hawkish stance shows minimal impact. 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