{"id":68069,"date":"2023-08-17T15:31:31","date_gmt":"2023-08-17T12:31:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=68069"},"modified":"2025-11-25T12:56:29","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T10:56:29","slug":"oil-breaks-below-the-80-psychological-level","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/fr\/oil-breaks-below-the-80-psychological-level\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil breaks below the $80 psychological level"},"content":{"rendered":"

Despite oil reaching levels not seen since the early days<\/a> of November last year, over the past week, WTI has broken below the $80 psychological figure following worrying financial releases stemming from China. In this report, we aim to shed light on the factors driving WTI\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a analyse technique<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s Industrial production spikes worries about future oil demand.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In last week\u2019s oil report,\u00a0we mentioned that should market worries about China\u2019s recovery are intensified it may hurt oil prices, the above now seems to have materialized following the release of China\u2019s Industrial production rates that were released on Tuesday. The Industrial production rates appeared to be indicative of a continued deterioration in Chinese economic activity, despite measures taken by the Government to stimulate growth. Given China\u2019s status as the world\u2019s largest oil importer, traders may be increasingly concerned that as China\u2019s economic woes deepen it could potentially reduce oil demand, as the Chinese economy is primarily driven by manufacturing<\/strong>. Therefore<\/strong>, should China\u2019s manufacturing industry continue to deteriorate<\/strong>, it could weigh<\/strong> on the commodities<\/strong> price<\/strong> and send oil to<\/strong> lower ground<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India and the UAE\u2019s agreement.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On Monday the Indian Government announced that it would be settling<\/strong> bilateral<\/strong> trade<\/strong> with the United Arab Emirates in each other\u2019s respective local<\/strong> currency<\/strong>. Following the announcement, Indian Oil Corp, one of India\u2019s top oil refiners announced that it had made payments<\/strong> in Rupees<\/strong> for a purchase of a million oil barrels<\/strong> from the UAE, per Reuters. The development<\/strong> marks a potential shift away from the dollar<\/strong>, as local currencies can now be used which could remove the \u201cmiddle man<\/strong>\u201d being the greenback<\/strong>. However, it is an unlikely<\/strong> scenario<\/strong> that the UAE and India are going to try and eliminate the use of the dollar in its entirety but what may be interesting<\/strong> is the possibility<\/strong> of more nations<\/strong> following suit. Therefore, in conclusion, should more and more nations decide to settle oil<\/strong> trade in each other’s respective currency, it could in theory<\/strong> boost<\/strong> the price of oil<\/strong> in the long<\/strong> run<\/strong>, as demand<\/strong> may increase<\/strong> given the increased<\/strong> alternatives<\/strong> of purchasing<\/strong> methods<\/strong> which could be cheaper<\/strong> than using the dollar<\/strong> to settle transactions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia increases its oil export duty.<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Russia according to Bloomberg<\/strong> will be raising its export<\/strong> levy<\/strong> which is paid by oil<\/strong> producers<\/strong> by $21.40 per ton in September. The increased export<\/strong> duty<\/strong> is anticipated to generate<\/strong> increased<\/strong> revenue<\/strong> for Russia which has been seeing the price of Russian crude at haute<\/strong> levels<\/strong>. The export levy would be placed on oil<\/strong> producers, therefore potentially<\/strong> being passed<\/strong> on to consumers<\/strong> as the costs<\/strong> of production<\/strong> increase<\/strong>, which in turn is reflected in higher oil<\/strong> prices. In conclusion, should the increased cost of production be transferred to consumers, we may see higher prices of oil<\/strong>, as higher<\/strong> prices<\/strong> may be needed to offset the proposed<\/strong> duty set by the Russian Government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran announces 67 new oil and gas projects.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to a news report, Iran has announced 67 new oil and gas projects which are worth around $15 billion, with Iran aiming to increase production of 3.3 million bpd by the end of August, which is a 0.12 million bpd increase from the current 3.18 million bpd that the country is currently producing and to reach 3.5 million bpd by the end of September according to the head of the National Iranian Oil company. Overall, the potential $15 billion investment by Iran could increase the nation\u2019s oil production capabilities in the long run, yet by increasing production it could ultimately drive the price of oil to lower ground, as there would be a greater supply of oil in the market in the long run, as an increase if the supply would reduce the scarcity of oil, thus potentially making it cheaper on a global level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analyser la technique<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WTI Cash 4H Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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