{"id":72020,"date":"2023-11-01T15:19:53","date_gmt":"2023-11-01T13:19:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=72020"},"modified":"2025-11-19T13:01:00","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T11:01:00","slug":"equities-report-fed-us-employment-report-and-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/fr\/equities-report-fed-us-employment-report-and-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"Equities report: Fed, US employment report and earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In the past week, US stockmarkets tended to reverse part of the losses made in the latter half of October. In this report we are to discuss the financial and fundamental environment surrounding US stock markets, the earnings reports released, and conclude with a technical analysis of Nasdaq\u2019s daily chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-fed-s-signals\"><strong>Fed\u2019s signals<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Today we highlight the release of the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision and the bank is widely expected to remain on hold, keeping rates at the range 5.25-5.50%. It\u2019s characteristic of the market\u2019s certainty, that Fed Fund Futures imply currently a probability of 99.5% for such a scenario to materialise. Furthermore, we note the market\u2019s expectations for the bank to remain on hold until July 2024 and then proceed with a rate cut. Yet such expectations could be contradicted should the Fed decide to adopt a more hawkish tone in its accompanying statement and Fed Chairman Powell\u2019s press conference later on. At this point, we have to note that inflation albeit slowing down is still at quite high levels yet the jump of the GDP rate at a preliminary level for Q3, is markable, economic activity seems to have increased in October for both the services and manufacturing sector and the US employment market tends to remain relatively tight. All of that tends to allow the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance and practically prolong the period at which high rates reign over the economy and probably that may be the Fed\u2019s main message in the event. Should the tone actually be hawkish, we may see the market sentiment being contradicted and turning more cautious and thus weaken US stock markets, which are considered as riskier assets. On the other hand, should the bank\u2019s hawkishness ease, given the slowdown of inflationary pressures in the US economy we may see US\u00a0 stock markets gaining. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-us-employment-report\"><strong>The US employment report<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On Friday we highlight the release of the US employment report for October. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at the relatively low level of 3.8%, the Non-Farm Payrolls figure to drop to 180k from September\u2019s astounding 336k and the average earnings growth rate to\u00a0 slow down to 4.0% yoy if compared to September\u2019s 4.2% yoy. Should the actual rates and figures meet their respective forecasts, we still see the US employment market as being quite tight given that the unemployment rate remains at relatively low levels and the drop of the NFP figure is understandable given September\u2019s outsized rise. Overall such rates and figures tend to allow the Fed to maintain its hawkish tone and thus may weigh somewhat on US stockmarkets. Yet the element of surprise may be present and could create asymmetrical market responses at the time of the release.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-apple-s-and-other-upcoming-earnings-releases\"><strong>Apple\u2019s and other upcoming earnings releases<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>We note that earnings releases of the past week tended to intensify market worries for the path of hight tech US companies, with an adverse effect on their share price. We expect market focus to remain on earnings releases over the next seven days as several high-profile companies are scheduled to release their earnings reports. We highlight tomorrow Thursday the release of Apple\u2019s earnings report. The company unveiled yesterday it\u2019s new MacBook Pro featuring M3 chips, which are considered to make the laptop \u201cscary\u201d fast, creating some support for Apple\u2019s share price. Tomorrow we would like to see whether the mega-cap high-tech company is going to be able to reverse the downward trajectory of its earnings and revenue figures over the past three quarters but would also be interested on any hints about the outlook of the aforementioned figures. On a busy Thursday, we also note the release of the earnings reports of Ferrari (#RACE), Starbucks (#SBUX), Novavax (#NVAX) and DropBox (#DBX). On Friday we get the earnings reports of Alibaba (#BABA), on Tuesday UBS(#UBS), EBAY(#EBAY), UBER(#Uber) and next Wednesday Disney (#DIS) and Lyft Inc.(#LYFT). Overall we expect that earnings releases could captivate the attention of the markets and\u00a0 create headlines in the coming week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-technical-analysis\"><strong>Analyser la technique<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-us100-daily-chart\"><strong>US100 Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1125\" height=\"526\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-72021\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 13920 (S1), 13200 (S2), 12700 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 14450 (R1), 15300 (R2), 15950 (R3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US100 Cash seems to have halted its downward trajectory over the past two days and currently seems about to test the 14450 (R1) resistance line. It\u2019s characteristic that the downward motion was interrupted after the index\u2019s price action broke the lower boundary of the Bollinger bands. It should be noted that the index\u2019s price action seems prepared to break the downward trendline which started to form on the 17<sup>\u00a0&nbsp;<\/sup> of October and the RSI indicator bounced on the reading of 30, yet remains below the reading of 50, prolonging the ambiguity regarding the index\u2019s direction. For a bullish outlook we would require the index\u2019s price action to clearly break the prementioned downward trendline, signaling the interruption of the downward movement, but also break the 14450 (R1) resistance nest clearly and start aiming for the 15300 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears regain control we may see the index reversing the upward course of the past couple of days, possibly shifting the downward trendline to the right and start aiming for the 13920 (S1) support base.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\">Si vous avez des questions d'ordre g\u00e9n\u00e9ral ou des commentaires concernant cet article, veuillez envoyer un email directement \u00e0 notre \u00e9quipe de recherche \u00e0 l'adresse <a href=\"mailto:research_team@ironfx.com\">research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Avertissement :<br><i>Ces informations ne doivent pas \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme un conseil ou une recommandation d'investissement, mais uniquement comme une communication marketing. IronFX n'est pas responsable des donn\u00e9es ou informations fournies par des tiers r\u00e9f\u00e9renc\u00e9s, ou en lien hypertexte, dans cette communication.<\/i><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the past week, US stockmarkets tended to reverse part of the losses made in the latter half of October.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-72020","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Equities report: Fed, US employment report and earnings<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Fed likely on hold but tone key; Apple earnings in focus as tech volatility rises. 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