{"id":57366,"date":"2023-03-07T15:27:17","date_gmt":"2023-03-07T13:27:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=57366"},"modified":"2025-10-13T17:03:51","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T14:03:51","slug":"gold-rallies-despite-rising-bond-yields","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/id\/gold-rallies-despite-rising-bond-yields\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold rallies despite rising bond yields"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Emas<\/strong> managed to snap its <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/en\/pce-data-dampens-golds-appeal\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">wo-week losing streak<\/a><\/span> last week, rebounding higher to the $1850 level, despite a relative stabilization of the <strong>greenback<\/strong> dan <strong>hawkish<\/strong> calls from various <strong>Fed officials<\/strong> that reinforce the view that the <strong>US<\/strong> <strong>central bank<\/strong> will need to press on with its restrictive monetary tightening efforts to combat <strong>persistent<\/strong> <strong>inflationary pressures<\/strong>. In this report, we aim to shed light on the catalysts driving the <strong>precious metal\u2019s<\/strong> price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Fed Chair Powell\u2019s testimonies capture the market\u2019s attention<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Today Tuesday the 7<sup>th<\/sup> of March and tomorrow Wednesday the 8<sup>th<\/sup>, market participants will shift their attention towards <strong>Fed Chair Powell\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>speeches<\/strong> at the Senate Banking Committee and House of Financial Services Committee respectively, seeking for clues as to how high the bank will raise rates to tackle the <strong>inflationary problem<\/strong>. The head of the <strong>Federal Reserve<\/strong> will testify at the hearing on the central bank\u2019s semiannual <strong>monetary policy<\/strong> report and according to a WSJ article Powell \u201cwill likely be asked by lawmakers if a half percentage-point move is under consideration\u201d. Currently the according to the latest FFF, the market assigns a 77% probability to the scenario where the central bank proceeds with a <strong>25-basis points rate<\/strong> <strong>hike<\/strong> in the March meeting. Should the Chairman signal that a <strong>50-basis points hike<\/strong> is a possibility and delivers his message with a <strong>hawkish resolve<\/strong>, that will force the market to readjust its stance, hence we may see the <strong>dollar receive inflows<\/strong> which might it turn cause the <strong>precious<\/strong> to <strong>relent<\/strong> some of its recent <strong>gains<\/strong>. The prospects for tighter financial conditions from the Fed, dampen the appeal of the <strong>shiny metal<\/strong> in the eyes of investors. Throughout last week, several <strong>FOMC<\/strong> <strong>policy<\/strong> <strong>makers<\/strong> expressed their views on how the bank should proceed going forth, taking into account the latest round of economic data. San Francisco Fed President Daly over the weekend commented \u201crestoring price stability is our mandate and it is what the American people expect. So, the <strong>FOMC<\/strong> remains resolute in achieving this goal,\u201d adopting a hawkish stance, siding with a more aggressive response as the latest <strong>PCE data<\/strong> pointed out that inflation is not subsiding as quickly as one hoped. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated that he remains \u201copen minded\u201d and prefers over-tightening rather than under-tightening when it comes to monetary policy actions. Fed Governor Waller pointed out that a resilient employment market, strong consumer spending tendencies and hotter than anticipated inflation is not reflecting \u201cmoderation\u201d or evidence for a cooling economy, stating \u201cwe cannot risk the revival of inflation\u201d, signaling that more must be done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Crucial US employment report to make or break gold<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This Friday the market will be forced to grapple with the latest <strong>employment results<\/strong> for the month of February, following last month\u2019s <strong>blowout report<\/strong> that drove traders to downsize their <strong>overoptimistic speculative bets<\/strong> for a <strong>less hawkish Fed<\/strong>, which yielded significant <strong>inflows<\/strong> towards the <strong>greenback<\/strong> and tarnished the <strong>precious<\/strong>. According to forecasts the market expects the <strong>Non-Farm Payrolls <\/strong>figure to ease to 200k this month, following the incredulous 517k newly created jobs in the month of January. Should the actual figure match the expectation we may see the <strong>dollar<\/strong> coming under pressure and in contrast see <strong>gold<\/strong> receive support. Worth pointing out nonetheless, is that the 200k employment figure expectation falls in line with historical averages, implying that the <strong>US labour market<\/strong> remains <strong>robust<\/strong> and showcases its ability to stand strong amidst a <strong>high interest rate<\/strong> environment. Turning our attention towards the <strong>unemployment rate<\/strong> expectation, the market consensus sees the rate holding steady at 3.4%, near record lows which validates the view for a resilient US employment force. In regards to the year-on-year average hourly earnings rate, the market forecasts an acceleration of the rate to the 4.7% from the 4.4% of the prior month and should the actual rate meet expectations that would practically reaffirm that <strong>inflationary pressures<\/strong> pose a systemic risk in the US economy, providing therefore support for the <strong>dollar<\/strong> and placing pressure on the <strong>shiny metal<\/strong>. Overall, the results are expected to provide support in the <strong>Fed<\/strong>\u2019s case for pressing on with more rate hikes since the employment market has yet to show any cracks, allowing the <strong>central bank<\/strong> to focus solely at keeping the <strong>inflation monster<\/strong> suppressed and under control, disallowing it from becoming deeply entrenched in the US economy. Should we see the <strong>NFP<\/strong> figure exceed expectations, that would reinforce the view for a <strong>hawkish policy<\/strong> response from the Fed and hurt the <strong>precious<\/strong>, since the prospects for tighter financial conditions <strong>dampen<\/strong> the <strong>appeal<\/strong> of the <strong>shiny metal<\/strong>. On the contrary should the <strong>NFP<\/strong> figure fail to live up to expectations, we may see the <strong>bullion<\/strong> glisten in the eyes of investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-technical-analysis\"><strong>Analisis Teknikal<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>XAUUSD H4 Chart<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"291\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/xau-usd-4h-chart-07-03-2023-technical-analysis.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-57369\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Support: 1835 (S1), 1820 (S2), 1805 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance: 1855 (R1), 1870 (R2), 1890 (R3)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at <strong>XAUUSD<\/strong> 4-hour chart we observe that <strong>gold<\/strong> broke past the <strong>descending channel<\/strong> on the 28<sup>th<\/sup> of February and soared higher, peaking around the 1855 (R1) resistance level and is currently attempting <strong>consolidation<\/strong> near the 100- and 200-day <strong>moving averages<\/strong>. We hold a <strong>sideways<\/strong> bias given that the price action has broken below the <strong>ascending trendline<\/strong> initiated since the 28<sup>th<\/sup> of February, with its price action being confined between the 1835 (S1) and 1855 (R1) levels. The <strong>RSI indicator<\/strong> currently registers a reading of 51, showcasing <strong>indecision<\/strong> surrounding the commodity. We would also like to point out that today\u2019s and tomorrow\u2019s scheduled speeches by <strong>Fed Chair Powell<\/strong> alongside the crucial <strong>NFP<\/strong> <strong>report<\/strong> on Friday, can sway the markets views and create <strong>Volatilitas<\/strong> for the <strong>shiny metal\u2019s price<\/strong>, depending on the comments and contents respectively. Should the <strong>bulls<\/strong> take initiative and guide the price of <strong>gold<\/strong>, we may see the definitive break above the 1855 (R1) <strong>resistance<\/strong> level and the move near the 1870 (R2) <strong>resistance<\/strong> <strong>barrier<\/strong>. Under <strong>extremely volatile<\/strong> conditions we may see the price climb higher, near the 1890 (R3) level. Should on the other hand <strong>bears<\/strong> dominate, we may see the break below the 1835 (S1) <strong>support<\/strong> level and the move near the 1820 (S2) <strong>support base<\/strong>. Similarly, we note that under extremely volatile conditions we may see <strong>gold<\/strong> plunging even lower, closer to the 1805 (S3) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disclaimer:<br><em>This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold managed to snap its two-week losing streak last week&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[376,355,386,411,780,338],"class_list":["post-57366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-gold","tag-gold-market","tag-gold-price","tag-gold-traders","tag-market-research","tag-technical-analysis","blog-category-metals","blog_tag-gold","blog_tag-gold-market","blog_tag-gold-price","blog_tag-gold-traders","blog_tag-market-research","blog_tag-technical-analysis","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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