{"id":60792,"date":"2023-04-19T17:19:55","date_gmt":"2023-04-19T14:19:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=60792"},"modified":"2025-10-13T14:03:43","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T11:03:43","slug":"equities-outlook-equities-report-equity-traders-brace-for-earnings-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/id\/equities-outlook-equities-report-equity-traders-brace-for-earnings-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"Equities report: Equity traders brace for earnings impact"},"content":{"rendered":"

US stock markets<\/strong> have extended<\/strong> their reach over the past week capitalizing<\/strong> on weaker<\/strong> US<\/strong> economic<\/strong> data<\/strong> and currently traders<\/strong> appear overoptimistic<\/strong> at the start of the earnings<\/strong> season<\/strong>, despite ongoing worries for a recession<\/strong>. In this report we aim to present the recent fundamental and economic news releases that impacted the US stock markets, look ahead at the upcoming events that could affect their performance and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US stock markets trade higher following the CPI print<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Equity<\/strong> markets traded higher<\/strong> following last week\u2019s US CPI print<\/strong>. As was mentioned in last week\u2019s report, market analysts<\/strong> had predicted<\/strong> the US CPI<\/strong> at 5.2% whereas the official<\/strong> figure<\/strong> came in at 5.0%. The lower<\/strong> than anticipated CPI<\/strong> print<\/strong> was indicative<\/strong> of reduced<\/strong> inflationary<\/strong> pressures<\/strong> following the Fed\u2019s<\/strong> aggressive<\/strong> interest rate<\/strong> hiking<\/strong> path<\/strong> in its fight<\/strong> against inflation<\/strong>. Following the release of the CPI data<\/strong>, US equity markets<\/strong> capitalized<\/strong> on a weaker<\/strong> greenback<\/strong> which was pressured by the anticipation that the Fed<\/strong> may ease<\/strong> on its hiking<\/strong> policy in order to reflect<\/strong> the current economic<\/strong> situation<\/strong>. In addition to a stronger<\/strong> Industrial<\/strong> production<\/strong> figure on Friday allowed equities<\/strong> traders<\/strong> to ride Wednesday\u2019s CPI<\/strong> print<\/strong> momentum<\/strong> into Friday\u2019s trading<\/strong> session<\/strong>. \u00a0However, other financial releases such as the Retail<\/strong> sales<\/strong> figure which ticked<\/strong> down<\/strong> may have capped<\/strong> gains<\/strong>, as it may be indicative<\/strong> that consumers<\/strong> are feeling the effects<\/strong> of tinggi<\/strong> interest<\/strong> rates<\/strong>, thus being less<\/strong> likely<\/strong> to continue current spending<\/strong> levels. This may translate into a weaker<\/strong> equities<\/strong> market, as reduced<\/strong> spending<\/strong> will eat<\/strong> away<\/strong> at the extraordinary profit<\/strong> margins<\/strong> enjoyed by companies<\/strong>, that were followed by the re-opening of global<\/strong> markets<\/strong> after covid, where due to consumers having high disposable incomes<\/strong>, lead to increased<\/strong> spending<\/strong>. Despite the equities<\/strong> markets<\/strong> overall gaining<\/strong> as a result of economic<\/strong> data<\/strong> indicating a reduction<\/strong> in inflationary<\/strong> pressures<\/strong>, the hawkish<\/strong> rhetoric<\/strong> from the Fed<\/strong> remained unchanged<\/strong>, as the FOMC<\/strong> indicated that they anticipate<\/strong> a mild<\/strong> recession<\/strong> to occur in the US<\/strong> economy<\/strong>. \u00a0Moreover statements made by Fed<\/strong> officials supported the Fed<\/strong> meeting<\/strong> minutes<\/strong> ,such as Fed Governor Waller<\/strong> who stated during a speech on Friday, \u201cThis growth would mean that, so far, tighter monetary policy and credit conditions are not doing much to restrain aggregate demand\u201d. Also, according to Reuters<\/strong> Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari<\/strong> stated last Wednesday, that allowing inflation<\/strong> to stay would be even worse<\/strong> for the labour<\/strong> market<\/strong>, implied that the Fed<\/strong> may need to raise<\/strong> interest rates<\/strong> further. Equity<\/strong> traders<\/strong> may anticipate<\/strong> the remaining three speeches by FOMC members Bowman, Waller and Cook<\/strong> throughout the week, as they may re-iterate hawkish<\/strong> remarks<\/strong> potentially weakening<\/strong> the bullish<\/strong> tendencies<\/strong> in the equities<\/strong> market<\/strong>. Lastly, we would also like to make a comment about the market\u2019s<\/strong> expectations<\/strong> for a recession<\/strong> reflected from the movements<\/strong> of the U.S Treasury bond yields<\/strong>. It\u2019s characteristic that the US 10-year yield and 2-year yield,<\/strong> both ticked upwards<\/strong>, reaching levels seen on the 14th<\/sup> of March, highlighting that the risk<\/strong> of a recession<\/strong> is estimated<\/strong> being higher<\/strong> overall by the markets<\/strong>, as we near the Fed\u2019s<\/strong> interest rate decision<\/strong> on the 3rd<\/sup> of May. Such market<\/strong> sentiment<\/strong> could sink<\/strong> morale<\/strong>, which may lead traders<\/strong> to adopt a more short-term outlook<\/strong> to the equities<\/strong> market since fears<\/strong> of a recession<\/strong> persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings season has arrived<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Reckoning<\/strong> day<\/strong> has arrived for many companies, with special interest being placed upon large<\/strong> dan regional<\/strong> banks<\/strong> which due to announce earnings<\/strong>. Last Friday the equities<\/strong> markets<\/strong> received a fresh injection<\/strong>, following better<\/strong> than anticipated earnings<\/strong> by JPMorgan (#JPM)<\/strong>, Wells Fargo (#WFC)<\/strong> dan Citigroup (#C)<\/strong> posting higher<\/strong> than expected earnings<\/strong>. On Tuesday we saw Johnson & Johnson (#JJ)<\/strong> followed by Bank of America (#BAC)<\/strong>, Lockheed Martin (#LockheedMT)<\/strong> supporting<\/strong> the rally<\/strong> by posting better than expected earnings<\/strong>, whereas Goldman Sachs (#GS)<\/strong> reported slightly weaker<\/strong> earnings<\/strong> dan Netflix (#NFLX)<\/strong> reported mixed<\/strong> earnings<\/strong>. Despite some outliers<\/strong>, the equities<\/strong> markets continued their upwards<\/strong> trajectory<\/strong>, however on Wednesday they appeared to have slightly<\/strong> weakened<\/strong>, indicative of heightened<\/strong> recession<\/strong> fears<\/strong> as was noted by the increase<\/strong> in both the US 2-year and 10-year treasury yields<\/strong>, as cracks<\/strong> in the so far stellar earnings<\/strong> period are appearing. In particular, Tesla (#TSLA)<\/strong> whose earnings<\/strong> at the time of this report are yet to be released<\/strong>, announced that US<\/strong> automobile<\/strong> prices<\/strong> will be reduced<\/strong> for a sixth<\/strong> time this year<\/strong>, potentially indicating<\/strong> a reduction<\/strong> in demand<\/strong> as they attempt to curb<\/strong> any negative<\/strong> impact<\/strong> in its share<\/strong> price<\/strong>, \u00a0in the event that their earnings<\/strong> fail<\/strong> to meet<\/strong> expectations<\/strong>. Furthermore, we note that Walt Disney (#DIS),<\/strong> according to Bloomberg<\/strong>, is set to eliminate<\/strong> thousands<\/strong> of jobs<\/strong> next week including 15% of its entertainment division staff. This could be a continuation<\/strong> of Disney\u2019s<\/strong> plan to reduce<\/strong> $5.5 billion<\/strong> in annual<\/strong> costs<\/strong> and an attempt to drum<\/strong> up<\/strong> investor<\/strong> confidence<\/strong> before its earnings<\/strong> report<\/strong> due on the 10th<\/sup> of May<\/strong>. Overall, equities<\/strong> traders<\/strong> may find short term support<\/strong> in the market<\/strong>, but in general, heightened fears of a recession<\/strong> could mean that the support<\/strong> from positive earnings<\/strong> is only a temporary<\/strong> support mechanism<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analisis Teknikal<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

#DIS Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Support: 97.90 (S1), 94.80 (S2), 90.40 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance: 101.70 (R1), 106.00 (R2), 110.15 (R3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking at #DIS<\/strong> Daily chart we observe investors reacting favorably<\/strong> to today\u2019s employee<\/strong> reduction<\/strong> announcement, as we approach Walt Disney\u2019s<\/strong> earnings date release. We hold a neutral<\/strong> outlook<\/strong> for Walt Disney<\/strong>, if the price action remains<\/strong> between<\/strong> the 97.90 (S1) support<\/strong> and the 101.70 (R1) resistance<\/strong> levels<\/strong>. Supporting our case is the RSI<\/strong> indicator below our daily chart which currently stands near<\/strong> 50 and the formation of a sideways<\/strong> channel<\/strong> since the 12th<\/sup> of April, indicating an indecisive<\/strong> market<\/strong> surrounding \u201cthe land where dreams come true\u201d. However, we note that there is also a formation<\/strong> of an upwards<\/strong> trendline<\/strong> since the 15th<\/sup> of March that has yet<\/strong> to be broken<\/strong>, potentially implying bullish<\/strong> tendencies<\/strong> for the stock<\/strong>. For a bullish<\/strong> outlook<\/strong>, we would like to see a clear<\/strong> break<\/strong> above<\/strong> the 101.70 (R1) resistance<\/strong> level and the move<\/strong> towards<\/strong> the 106.00 (R2) resistance<\/strong> barrier. For a bearish<\/strong> outlook<\/strong> we would like to see a clear<\/strong> break<\/strong> below<\/strong> the 97.90 (S1) support<\/strong> level with the next possible target<\/strong> for the bears<\/strong> being the 94.80 (S2) support<\/strong> base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclaimer:
This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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