{"id":67464,"date":"2023-08-03T09:50:24","date_gmt":"2023-08-03T06:50:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=67464"},"modified":"2026-02-12T13:56:59","modified_gmt":"2026-02-12T11:56:59","slug":"boes-interest-rate-decision-in-focus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/id\/boes-interest-rate-decision-in-focus\/","title":{"rendered":"BoE\u2019s interest rate decision in focus"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The USD was on the rise against its counterparts on Wednesday despite the Fitch rating agency downgrading US bonds. Overall, the recent US financial data and a number of economists citing the downgrade as out of place tended to out-trump Fitch\u2019s decision allowing for confidence in the recovery of the US economy to remain present. Furthermore, the release of the US ADP employment report for July showed that hirings in the private sector had not fallen as much as the market expected, implying that the US employment market remains tight also supporting the greenback and boosted hopes for a better-than-expected US employment report for July, tomorrow Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"BoE&#039;s interest rate decision in focus\" width=\"750\" height=\"422\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/PWR0Mavy2HU?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>US stock markets, on the other hand, dropped reflecting market worries for the outlook of the US fiscal government\u2019s policy, given also the downgrading of US bonds by Fitch. Stock market participants still have to navigate through the Fed\u2019s intentions, fundamentals and earnings releases. Today we turn our attention to the US tech sector as we get the earnings releases of Apple (#AAPL) and Amazon (#AMZN)but also keep an eye out for travel companies Booking &nbsp;(#BKNG)and Airbnb (#ABNB).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Back in the FX market and across the pond, pound traders are to keep a close eye on the release of BoE\u2019s interest rate decision. The bank is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points and GBPOIS imply a probability of 63% for such a scenario to materialise, with the rest implying that a 50-basis points rate hike may also be possible, showcasing the market\u2019s hawkish expectations. Hence a 25 basis points rate hike may not be sufficient for the pound to get some support. The bank may have to provide also a clear-cut hawkish forward guidance, showing clear intentions to continue hiking rates, for the pound to rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On a technical level, GBP\/USD continued to drop and is currently aiming for the 1.2700 (S1) support line. We tend to maintain a bearish outlook for the pair as long as it remains below the downward trendline incepted since the 14<sup>th<\/sup> of July and given that the RSI indicator is running along the reading of 30, highlighting the bearish sentiment of the market for the pair, yet at the same time may be warning that the pair has reached oversold levels and may be ripe for a correction higher. Should the bears maintain control over the pair, we may see cable breaking the 1.2700 (S1) support line with the next target for the bears being set around 100 pips lower at the 1.2600 (S2) support barrier. For a bullish outlook, we would require the pair to rise, break the prementioned downward trendline in a first signal that the downward motion has been halted but also break the 1.2880 (R1) resistance line in search of higher grounds. On the commodities front, despite oil prices falling yesterday, we tend to see them remaining supported as US inventory data yesterday, showed how tight the US oil market is and we do not expect OPEC+ to tweak its low production plans at tomorrow\u2019s meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WTI\u2019s price dropped yesterday breaking the 81.25 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance and continued lower to test the 79.00 (S1) support level. Given that the commodity\u2019s price in its downward movement broke the upward trendline incepted since the 28<sup>th<\/sup> of June, we temporarily switch our bullish outlook in favour of a sideways motion bias. Should the selling interest be renewed we may see WTI\u2019s price breaking the 79.00 (S1) support line and aim for the 76.70 (S2) support level. Should buyers be in control of WTI\u2019s price we may see it reversing the losses made yesterday, breaking the 81.25 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 83.35 (R2) resistance base.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-other-highlights-for-the-day\"><strong>Other highlights for the day:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In today\u2019s European session, we note the release of Switzerland\u2019s and Turkey\u2019s CPI rates for July, Eurozone\u2019s and UK\u2019s services and composite PMI figures for July, Eurozone\u2019s producer prices for June and on the monetary front we note the release from the Czech Republic of CNB\u2019s interest rate decision. In the American session, we note the release from the US of the weekly initial jobless claims figure, the factory orders growth rate for June and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI figure for July, while on a monetary level we note that Richmond Fed President Barkin is scheduled to speak.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gbp-usd-h4-chart\"><strong><strong>GBP\/USD H4 Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"456\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-18.png\" alt=\"support at one point two seven and resistance at one point two eight eight, direction downwards \" class=\"wp-image-67471\" title=\"gbp-usd-four-hour-chart\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 1.2700 (S1), 1.2600 (S2), 1.2485 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 1.2880 (R1), 1.2995 (R2), 1.3145 (R3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-wti-h4-chart\"><strong><strong>WTI H4 Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"456\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-19.png\" alt=\"support at seventy nine and resistance at eighty one and a quarter, direction sideways \" class=\"wp-image-67472\" title=\"wti-four-hour-chart\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 79.00 (S1), 76.70 (S2), 74.50 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 81.25 (R1), 83.35 (R2), 85.70 (R3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"2000\" height=\"495\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-14.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-67467\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1066\" height=\"618\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-17.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-67470\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1747\" height=\"993\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-15.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-67468\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1737\" height=\"675\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-16.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-67469\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\">If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at <a href=\"mailto:research_team@ironfx.com\" target=\"_self\">research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disclaimer:<br>This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The USD was on the rise against its counterparts on Wednesday despite the Fitch rating agency downgrading US bonds. Overall,<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-67464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>BoE Rate Decision: Market Outlook Today<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"BoE rate decision expected to stay on hold. 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