{"id":67502,"date":"2023-08-04T11:43:15","date_gmt":"2023-08-04T08:43:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=67502"},"modified":"2024-08-26T12:24:07","modified_gmt":"2024-08-26T09:24:07","slug":"us-employment-report-under-the-spotlight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/id\/us-employment-report-under-the-spotlight\/","title":{"rendered":"US employment report under the spotlight"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The USD edged lower against its counterparts, yesterday ahead of the release of July\u2019s US employment report. We note that the market\u2019s expectations may have been enhanced especially for the NFP figure after the release of the ADP figure for the same month, showing that the rise of private payrolls cooled off less than expected. Today we highlight the release of the US employment report for July and the NFP figure is expected to drop slightly implying a continuance of the weakening of the US economy\u2019s ability to actually create new positions, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%, implying that the US employment market remains tight. For the time being, we see that risks seem to be skewed to the upside and should there be better rates and figures than expected, we may see the USD getting some support as it would leave the door open for the Fed to proceed with another rate hike in the September meeting. On the other hand, a possible wider drop of the NFP figure and a tick up of the unemployment rate, may hint towards an easing of the US employment market\u2019s tightness and may disappoint traders, thus weakening the greenback. The release could increase volatility substantially for USD pairs hence caution is advisable if one should trade at the time of the release. We highlight that the release may have wider ripple effects beyond the FX market and should data show an easing of the US employment market we may see support rising for US stockmarkets and gold\u2019s price and vice versa.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"US employment report under the spotlight\" width=\"750\" height=\"422\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/s2CDbyr6YVo?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>USD\/JPY seems to maintain a sideways motion between the 143.35 (R1) resistance line and the 141.90 (S1) support line.&nbsp; We tend to maintain our bias for the sideways motion to continue currently, given also that the RSI indicator is running along the reading of 50, implying a rather indecisive market. On the other hand, we have to note that the release of the US employment report for July and\/or the release of BoJ\u2019s summary of opinions for the July meeting on Monday could alter the pair\u2019s direction. Should the bulls take over, we may see the pair breaking the 143.35 (R1) line and aim for the 145.10 (R2) resistance base. Should bears take over we may see USD\/JPY breaking the 141.90 (S1) line and continue lower to test the 140.80 (S2) support hurdle.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Back in the FX market and north of the US border and at the same time of the release of the US employment data we also get Canada\u2019s employment data for July. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up and reach 5.5%, while the employment change figure is expected to drop more than half and reach 21.1k. Should the actual rates and figures meet their respective forecasts, we may see the CAD weakening as they would imply that the Canadian employment market\u2019s tightness seems to crack. Such rates and figures may enhance Bank of Canada\u2019s predisposition to remain on hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>USD\/CAD rose breaking the 1.3335 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support yet stabilised in the past 24 hours just above the S1. In its stabilisation the pair broke the upward trend line guiding it, hence we tend to temporarily switch our bullish outlook in favor of a sideways movement bias. Nevertheless, we may see the simultaneous release of the US and Canadian employment data for July altering the pair\u2019s direction. Should the bulls be in charge we may see the pair aiming if not breaking the 1.3450 (R1) resistance line, while if the bears take over, we may see USD\/CAD breaking the 1.3335 (S1) line and aim for the 1.3230 (S2) support level.&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-other-highlights-for-the-day\"><strong>Other highlights for the day:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In today\u2019s European session, we note the release of&nbsp; Germany\u2019s industrial orders for June, the Eurozone\u2019s and the UK\u2019s construction PMI figures for July and the Eurozone\u2019s retail sales for June, while on the commodities front OPEC is to have a meeting and could shake oil prices, while on a monetary level, we note that BoE Chief Economist Hugh Pill is scheduled to speak. Also, note that JPY traders may be interested in the release of BoJ\u2019s summary of opinions for its July meeting.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-usd-jpy-h4-chart\"><strong>USD\/JPY H4 Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"456\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-20.png\" alt=\"support at one hundred and forty one point nine and resistance at one hundred and forty three point thirty five, direction sideways \" class=\"wp-image-67503\" title=\"usd-jpy-four-hour-chart\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 141.90 (S1), 140.80 (S2), 139.15 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 143.35 (R1), 145.10 (R2), 146.80 (R3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-usd-cad-h4-chart\"><strong>USD\/CAD&nbsp; H4 Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"456\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-21.png\" alt=\"support at one point three three three five and resistance at one point three four five, direction sideways \" class=\"wp-image-67504\" title=\"usd-cad-four-hour-chart\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 1.3335 (S1), 1.3230 (S2), 1.3135 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 1.3450 (R1), 1.3565 (R2), 1.3650 (R3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1994\" height=\"491\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-22.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-67505\" title=\"benchmark-04-08-2023\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1036\" height=\"617\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-24.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-67507\" title=\"table-04-08-2023\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1387\" height=\"1126\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-23.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-67506\" title=\"morning-releases-04-08-2023\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\">If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at <a href=\"mailto:research_team@ironfx.com\" target=\"_self\">research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disclaimer:<br>This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The USD edged lower against its counterparts, yesterday ahead of the release of July\u2019s US employment report. We note that<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-67502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US employment report under the spotlight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"USD edges lower before July&#039;s US employment report; NFP drop and stable unemployment may impact Fed rate hike outlook.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/id\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67502\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"id_ID\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US employment report under the spotlight\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"USD edges lower before July&#039;s US employment report; NFP drop and stable unemployment may impact Fed rate hike outlook.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/id\/us-employment-report-under-the-spotlight\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-08-04T08:43:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-08-26T09:24:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"IronFX Team\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-id.com\\\/id\\\/us-employment-report-under-the-spotlight\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-id.com\\\/id\\\/us-employment-report-under-the-spotlight\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"IronFX Team\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-id.com\\\/id\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6727476356d10030d1564b38f6e699b1\"},\"headline\":\"US employment report under the spotlight\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-08-04T08:43:15+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-08-26T09:24:07+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-id.com\\\/id\\\/us-employment-report-under-the-spotlight\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":819,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-id.com\\\/id\\\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Uncategorized\"],\"inLanguage\":\"id\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-id.com\\\/id\\\/us-employment-report-under-the-spotlight\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-id.com\\\/id\\\/us-employment-report-under-the-spotlight\\\/\",\"name\":\"US employment report under the spotlight\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-id.com\\\/id\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-08-04T08:43:15+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-08-26T09:24:07+00:00\",\"description\":\"USD edges lower before July's US employment report; NFP drop and stable unemployment may impact Fed rate hike outlook.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-id.com\\\/id\\\/us-employment-report-under-the-spotlight\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"id\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-id.com\\\/id\\\/us-employment-report-under-the-spotlight\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-id.com\\\/id\\\/us-employment-report-under-the-spotlight\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-id.com\\\/id\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"US employment report under the spotlight\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-id.com\\\/id\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfx-id.com\\\/id\\\/\",\"name\":\"Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX\",\"description\":\"&quot;Our Introducing Brokers program offers competitive conditions tailored to our partners&#039; needs. 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