Looking at the charts

EUR/USD, AUD/NZD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY

EUR/USD 4時間チャート

Support: 1.1535 (S1), 1.1470 (S2), 1.1415 (S3)

Resistance: 1.1665 (R1), 1.1745 (R2), 1.1810 (R3)

The currency pair’s downward movement persists and even has intensified in the most recent sessions. At the moment EUR/USD is trading nearby levels previously seen back in July 2020. For the time being we have seen a test of the (S1) 1.1535 support level as it still holds up by not being breached. If the momentum downwards is to continue then the next level lower could be the (S2) 1.1470. For us to change our current selling view to a buying one we would like to see EUR/USD break above the (R1) 1.1665 resistance and even head to the (R2) 1.1745. The RSI indicator seems to be moving away from the 30 level currently implying some buying orders may be present. Another way to confirm that a buying momentum has formed for EUR/USD could be a breach above the downward trend line noted on our chart.

Traders can focus on the ZEW economic indicators from Germany coming up on the 12    of October or the German HICP rates on the 13    of October. USD traders have the US employment report coming up on the 8    of October while in the next week, we get the very important CPI rates from the US on the 13    of October. These events can produce notable price activity for EUR/USD.

AUD/NZD H4

Support: 1.0450 (S1), 1.0375 (S2), 1.0305 (S3)

Resistance: 1.0560 (R1), 1.0630 (R2), 1.0710 (R3)

AUD/NZD has made a significant rebound in October as it has broken outside a downward momentum it was moving within since June. After the move seems to persist, we now keep an upward bias for the currency pair which could be now aiming for the (R1) 1.0560 resistance level. Higher the (R2) 1.0630 can also be used as a target in a more prolonged buying strategy. Levels we tend to note as supports are first the (S1) 1.0450 line which some stabilization had occurred in the past days, while the (S2) 1.0375 could be found even lower. The (S3) 1.0305 support is the lowest level reached so far in 2021 and had not be tested since April 2020 making it rather significant. With the Average True range stabilizing nearby 0.0022 we could say the trend is most likely to remain.

The most significant event from our perspective that can be used for trading the specific currency pair is the Australian Employment report released on the 14    of October.

GBP/USD H4

Support: 1.3550 (S1), 1.3515 (S2), 1.3450 (S3)

Resistance: 1.3640 (R1), 1.3675 (R2), 1.3715 (R3)

GBP/USD has moved into a sideways momentum after the strengthening of the pound that has taken place mostly in October. At the moment the currency pair seems to be moving between the (R1) 1.3640 resistance and the (S1) 1.3550 support level. We highlight these levels as they have been tested in the latest sessions but have not been breached just yet. Other resistances we have noted higher are the (R2) 1.3675 level and at the top the (R3) 1.3715 line and these could be possible stops in a supposed upward momentum. To the downside we note the (S2) 1.3515 line and the (S3) 1.3450 level which was tested for the last time back in January 2021. The RSI indicator keeps moving nearby the 50 level displaying some uncertainty. In our opinion a breach of either the (R1) or (S1) can determine the direction of the pair’s movement, as the price action in the past weeks has formed a symmetrical triangle that seems to highlight this range. 

Pound traders can keep an eye out for the UK employment report coming up on the 12    of October and the UK GDP rates to be released on the 13    of October along with the crucial UK Manufacturing Output rate.

GBP/JPY H4

Support: 150.80 (S1), 150.20 (S2), 149.55 (S3)

Resistance: 151.60 (R1), 152.15 (R2), 152.60 (R3)

At the moment GBP/JPY is moving in a wide sideways motion between the (R3) 152.60 resistance and the (S3) 149.55 support making them both notable levels for traders. For the time being traders can focus on the (R1) 151.60 level that was attempted and temporary breached in the most recent session. If the currency pair moves upwards traders can turn their attention to the (R2) 152.15 level or even higher to the (R3) 152.60 levels that were both tested back in September. The support levels we have in mind are first the (S1) 150.80 level that was last tested in the past sessions multiple times proving its validity. Even more to the downside the (S2) 150.20 line could be a target for the bears while the (S3) 149.55 is in our opinion a more long term level to be considered as it was tested for the last time on the 1  of October.  With the MACD indicator remaining away from negative territory for the time being, the trend could remain sideways with bullish tendencies in our opinion.

As for economic data in the days ahead, traders can focus on the Japanese current account figure coming up on the 8    of October while the vital Japanese Machinery Orders rate comes up on the 13    of October.

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