Oil prices jump after OPEC+ cuts shake markets

Oil prices maintained the gains made yesterday after the surprise oil production cut announced by the OPEC+ group and are threatening to go even higher, with analysts speculating that the oil price is to reach $95–$100 per barrel by the end of the year. Such a development could support inflationary pressures around the world, forcing central banks to tighten their monetary policy even further which in turn may have an adverse effect on economic activity and even cause a recession. Oil prices may get additional support should the US weekly readings show that the US oil market remains tight, reinforcing oil price momentum. We also note that the market may slowly but steadily start turning its attention towards the demand side of the commodity and the prospect of slowing manufacturing activity may not bode well for the oil price. It should be noted that economic activity in the US has contracted once again, reaching the lowest level post-pandemic according to the ISM manufacturing PMI figure for March, attributing to the weakening of the USD which was marked across the board yesterday. US stock markets were on the rise yesterday, boosted by the rise of oil companies, yet we also note that Tesla’s shares tumbled, as profitability-margin worries overshadowed the record-high car deliveries of the automaker, while WSJ reported that McDonald’s is preparing layoffs as part of a restructuring plan, which under certain circumstances could provide a boost for its share price. We also note that US stock markets may be substantially affected should Fed policymakers actually sound hawkish enough. In the land down under, as was widely expected, RBA remained on hold at 3.6% in an effort to assess the state of the economy and hinted that the cash rate may be reaching its peak in Governor Lowe’s accompanying statement. Also, we highlight the release of RBNZ’s interest rate decision and the bank is expected to proceed with a 25-basis-points rate hike. Should the bank actually deliver the expected rate hike and the decision be accompanied by a hawkish statement, we may see the Kiwi getting some support, especially if oil price volatility influences broader market sentiment.

3月のISM製造業PMIによると、米国の経済活動は再び縮小し、パンデミック後の最低水準に達し、昨日は全面的に米ドル安が進んだ。当社では、過去最高の販売台数を記録したテスラの株価が、利益率への懸念から急落したこと、マクドナルドがリストラ計画の一環としてレイオフを準備しているとWSJが報じたことに注目し、原油会社の上昇を背景に米国株式市場が上昇したことを伝えている。

一方、米国では、予想通りRBAが景気動向を見極めるため3.6％の据え置きを継続し、ロウ総裁の発言で金利がピークに達することを示唆した。また、ニュージーランド準備銀行の金利決定が発表され、25bpの利上げに踏み切ると予想されており、タカ派的な声明が発表されれば、ニュージーランドドルが上昇するだろう。

その他の注目材料

Today in the European session, we note the release of Germany’s trade data for February and Eurozone’s PPI rates for the same month. In the American session, we get Canada’s trade data and from the US the factory orders and the JOLTS job openings all being for February, while later on oil traders may be more interested in the release of the API weekly crude oil inventories figure. On the monetary front, we note that BoE MPC member Tenreyro, BoE Chief Economist Pill, Fed Board Governor Cook and Boston Fed President Collins are scheduled to speak. During tomorrow’s Asian session, we note that Cleveland Fed President Mester and RBA Governor Philip Lowe are scheduled to speak.