RBA Hikes Rates as Markets Await Powell’s Speech

The USD continued to be on the rise against its counterparts yesterday in the aftermath of the release of a better-than-expected US employment report for January, yet there were some signs of stabilization during today’s Asian session. On the other hand, US stock markets tended to send out mixed signals yesterday, as the market is also influenced by the high number of earnings reports released, despite an initial bearish reaction to the substantial rise of the NFP figure and the tick down of the unemployment rate on Friday. Market expectations for the Fed to remain rather hawkish seem to have solidified and attention turns to Fed Chairman Powell’s speech later today. Should the Fed Chairman maintain a clear, confident, hawkish tone in his speech today, we may see renewed bullish tendencies for the USD while US stock markets may weaken once again. On the flip side, we note that gold’s price started to edge higher yesterday, breaking the negative correlation with the USD and seems to have the necessary tailwinds to gain even further today, yet that remains to be seen. Across the world, we note that RBA’s interest rate decision caused the Aussie to jump during today’s Asian session. The bank, as widely expected, hiked rates by 25 basis points and had the confidence to signal more rate hikes to come, reinforcing expectations around further RBA Hikes. The bank’s worries about inflationary pressures in the Australian economy seem to intensify as Governor Lowe, in his statement, mentioned that “In underlying terms, inflation was 6.9 percent, which was higher than expected”. At the same time, there is confidence in the Australian employment market as the Governor stated that “The labor market remains very tight… Job vacancies and job ads are both at very high levels, but have declined a little recently”. Hence it should come as no surprise that the Governor’s forward guidance stated that “The Board expects that further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead”, keeping RBA Hikes firmly on the table. We see the case for the hawkish stance of the bank to continue supporting the Aussie on a monetary level, yet AUD traders should remain vigilant about China’s fundamentals as well as data from Australia, as both may influence expectations surrounding future RBA Hikes.

世界では、RBAの金利決定により、今日のアジア時間で豪ドルが急騰した。予想通り25bpの利上げが行われ、今後さらに利上げが行われるとの見通しが示された。ロウ総裁は声明の中で、「基調的なインフレ率は6.9％で、予想を上回った」と述べ、オーストラリア経済のインフレ圧力への懸念が強まっているようだ。一方で、総裁は「労働市場は依然として非常にタイトであり、、、」と述べ、「オーストラリアの雇用市場に対する信頼感もある。求人と求人広告はともに非常に高い水準にあるが、最近少し減少している」と述べている。

したがって、豪州中央銀行総裁がフォワードガイダンスで「インフレ率を目標値に戻すためには、今後数ヵ月間にわたってさらなる利上げが必要になると理事会は予想している」と述べたことは驚くことではない。全体として、中央銀行のタカ派的なスタンスは、金融面で引き続き上昇すると考えられる。

その他の注目材料

本日の欧州時間では、英国のハリファックス住宅価格（1月）とニュージーランドの生乳オークション（隔週）の発表が予定されている。ECBのノット氏とカジミール氏、BOEのラムスデン副総裁、BOEのピルチーフエコノミスト、ECBのシュナーベル理事がスピーチする予定だ。米国時間には、カナダの12月貿易収支、アジア時間には、API週間原油在庫の発表が予定されている。パウエルFRB議長のほかに、バーFRB副議長とティフマックレムBoC総裁のスピーチが予定されていることに注意したい。火曜日のアジア時間では、日本の12月経常収支の発表に注意したい。