The FOMC December meeting minutes are due out today

Making a start with the US, we had a few financial releases yesterday which tended to paint an optimistic outlook for the US economy. Starting with the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI figure for December which came in better than expected implying a greater than expected expansion in economic activity in the US non-manufacturing sector of the economy. Moreover, the JOLT’s job openings figure for November exceeded expectations and the prior figure, tending to imply a resilient labour market and lastly the Atlanta Fed GDPNow preliminary rate for Q4 came in at 2.7% versus the expected rate of 2.4% further aiding the narrative of a resilient US economy. Overall, the financial release we mentioned above may have aided the greenback, as it could provide the Fed with greater confidence should they wish to follow a much more gradual rate-cutting approach in the year. Nonetheless, we would also point out the ADP employment figure for December which is due out later on today. However, the highlight of the day is set to be the FOMC’s December meeting minutes which are due out during the American session. In our view, the minutes may showcase a more hawkish Fed which may be preparing and may be taking into account President Trump’s economic policies that have been touted to lead to increased inflationary pressures in the US economy. As such, we would not be surprised to see a more cautious sentiment emerging from Fed policymakers, in terms of delaying potential rate cuts which in turn may aid the dollar. On the flip side, should the minutes be perceived as dovish, it could weigh on the dollar.

XAU/USD appears to be moving in a sideways fashion. We opt for a neutral outlook for the precious metal’s price and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 50 implying a neutral market sentiment. Moreover, we note that the precious metals price has once again failed to break above our 2665 (R1) resistance line. For our sideways bias to continue we would require the precious metal’s price to remain confined between the 2585 (S1) support level and the 2665 (R1) resistance line. On the flip side, for a bullish outlook, we would require a clear break above the 2665 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being the 2725 (R2) resistance level. Lastly, for a bearish outlook, we would require a clear break below the 2585 (S1) support line with the next possible target for the bears being the 2535 (S2) support base.

EUR/USD appears to be moving in a downwards fashion. We opt for a bearish outlook for the pair and supporting our case is the downwards-moving trendline which was incepted on the 6 of December 2024, in addition to the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure of 40 implying a bearish market sentiment. For our bearish outlook to continue we would require a clear break below the 1.0330 (S1) support level if not also the 1.0195 (S2) support line, with the next possible target for the bears being the 1.0070 (S3) support base. On the flip side for a bullish outlook, we would require a break above the 1.0450 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 1.0595 (R2) resistance level.

その他の注目材料

In today’s trading session, we note Germany’s industrial orders rate for November, Sweden’s preliminary CPI rate and the Eurozone’s preliminary confidence figure both for the month of December. In the American session, we note the ADP Employment figure for December, the US weekly initial jobless claims figure and the weekly EIA crude oil inventories figure. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we note Australia’s final retail sales and trade balance data both for November, followed by China’s PPI and CPI rates both for December. On a monetary level, we note the speech by Fed Board Governor Waller later on today and we highlight the release of the FOMC’s December meeting minutes.