US Retail Sales Boost Dollar as Markets React

The US Retail sales rate for December, came in higher than expected at 0.6% versus the expected rate of 0.4%. The higher-than-expected rate, implies that the consumer side of the economy appears to remain tight and as such, could stoke fears about persistent inflationary pressures. As such, the release of the Retail sales rate appears to have provided support for the dollar. Furthermore, the impact appears to have been translated into the US Stock markets, with all three major indexes moving lower. Over in Europe, ECB President Lagarde stated yesterday that the ECB appears to have reached its terminal rate. Yet, she warned markets that unless the ECB is confident that inflation is sustainably at 2% in the medium term, with sufficient data, it would be too early to declare victory. As such, the comments made by the ECB President could provide support for the EUR, should central bank officials adopt a more hawkish tone. In the oil market, OPEC’s monthly report which was released yesterday, indicated that the oil cartel anticipates that global consumption will see a “robust growth of 1.8 m bpd”, implying that oil demand will remain at elevated levels and as such could provide support for oil prices. Yet, despite the projections by OPEC, oil prices appear to remain relatively unfazed. Australia’s employment data for December tended to worry Aussie traders as despite the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.9%, the employment change figure dived deep in negative territory reaching -65.1k. Despite the release weighing on the Aussie initially, AUD was able to recover some ground against the USD.

USD/JPY appears to have failed to break above the 148.40 (R1) resistance level. Yet, we maintain a bullish outlook for the pair and supporting our case is the RSI Indicator below our 4-Hour chart, which currently registers a figure near 70, implying a bullish market sentiment, in addition to the upwards-moving trendline which was incepted on the 28 of December 2023. For our bullish outlook to continue, we would like to see a clear break above the 148.40 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 150.35 (R2) resistance ceiling. On the other hand, for a bearish outlook, we would like to see a break below the 146.65 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 143.40 (S2) support base. Lastly, for a sideways bias, we would like to see the pair remain confined between the 146.65 (S1) support level and the 148.40 (R1) resistance line.

WTICash appears to continue moving in a sideways motion, despite temporarily breaking below the 71.30 (S1) support level ,at the time of this report, appears to be testing the 73.30 (R1) resistance line. We continue to maintain a sideways bias and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 50, implying a neutral market sentiment, in addition to the narrowing of the Bollinger bands which imply low market volatility. For our sideways bias to continue, we would like the commodity to remain confined between the 71.30 (S1) support level and the 73.30 (R1) resistance line. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook, we would like to see a clear break above the 73.30 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 76.35 (R2) resistance ceiling. Lastly, for a bearish outlook, we would like to see a clear break below the 71.30 (S1) support level if not also breaking below the 68.20 (S2) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 64.00 (S3) support base.

その他の注目材料

Today in the American session, we get the US construction data for December, the US weekly initial jobless claims figure and the US Philly Fed Business index figure for January, the US weekly EIA Crude oil inventories figures and finishing off the day is New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI figure for December. On a monetary level, we highlight the speeches by British Finance Minister Hunt, SNB Chairman Jordan, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, ECB President Lagarde and Riksbank Governor Thedeen.