USD weakens as vaccine hopes rise

The USD tended to weaken during the Asian session today against some of its counterparts, as hopes for a vaccine tended to ease market worries. We tend to maintain the view that news about vaccines are to be getting better and better yet at the same time tend also highlight the risks which are still present from the spreading of the pandemic. The vaccine could start being distributed in the US with the first day after it gets approval from the FDA probably mid-December. In the meantime, the Thanksgiving holiday is expected to turn into a major risk event, given that millions of Americans could be travelling home, thus contributing to the spreading of the disease, as we noted on Friday. It should be noted that the spreading of the disease could enhance market worries. At the same time please bear in mind that Black Friday and Cyber Monday are nearing and could also affect the markets. We expect markets to keep a close eye today to the release of the Preliminary PMIs for November, yet also the path of the pandemic could alter the USD’s direction.
EUR/USD maintained a sideways motion on Friday remaining near the 1.1850 (S1) support line. We maintain a bias for the sideways motion to continue . yet the pandemic along with today’s release of the preliminary PMIs for November could affect the pair’s direction. Should the bears be in charge of EUR/USD’s direction, we could see it breaking the 1.1850 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.1790 (S2) level. Should the bulls take over, we could see it breaking the 1.1910 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.1965 (R2) level.

Kiwi reaches two year high

The NZD reached a two-year high today against the USD, during the Asian session as retail sales outperformed expectations reaching record high of 28% qoq. The recovery of the retail sales in the third quarter, seems to be highlighting the Kiwi’s strengthening course over the past two weeks. Analysts note that the acceleration of the retail sales growth rate tends to counterweigh the undermining of the currency’s attraction by RBNZ’s dovish stand. Also, we tend to have some worries for the renewed tensions in the US-Sino relationships, which could bearishly affect the Kiwi, should they escalate further. The Kiwi could remain sensitive to any news regarding the pandemic, as a commodity currency and we would also remind RBNZ’s preference for a weaker NZD.
NZD/USD kept rising on Friday, breaking the 0.6925 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. We maintain a bullish outlook for the pair as long as it remains above the upward trendline incepted since the 5th of November. Should the pair find fresh buying orders along its path, we could see it aiming if not breaking the 0.7000 (R1) resistance line in search of greener candlesticks. If a selling interest is displayed, we could see the pair breaking the prementioned upward trendline the 0.6925 (S1) line and aim for the 0.6835 (S2) level.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

Today in the European session, we highlight the release of the Germany’s, France’s, Eurozone’s and UK’s preliminary Markit PMI’s, while the American session, we get the US respective PMI readings as well. Also note that BoE’s Haldane, ECB’s Schnabel, San Francisco Fed President Daly, BoC Deputy Governor Gravelle, Chicago Fed President Evans and RBA Deputy Governor Debelle speak.

今週の指数発表

On Tuesday, we highlight Germany’s Ifo indicators for November and the US Consumer confidence for November. On Wednesday, we get from the US the durable goods orders and the consumption rate for October, the GDP rate for Q3, the weekly initial jobless claims figure while the Fed releases the minutes of its last meeting. On Thursday, we note Australia’s capital expenditure growth rate for Q3. On Friday, we get from Japan, Tokyo’s inflation rates, UK’s nationwide house prices and France’s preliminary inflation rates, all for November.