{"id":58217,"date":"2023-03-22T16:27:54","date_gmt":"2023-03-22T14:27:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=58217"},"modified":"2025-10-13T14:11:40","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T11:11:40","slug":"equities-outlook-equity-traders-brace-for-fed-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/ja\/equities-outlook-equity-traders-brace-for-fed-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"Equities report: Equity traders brace for Fed impact"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>US stock markets<\/strong> managed to contain their fall last week, found support and <strong>rebounded<\/strong> to higher ground, as the <strong>turmoil<\/strong> from sequential <strong>bank<\/strong> <strong>collapses<\/strong> and the fear for <strong>contagion<\/strong> across the globe, hurt the <strong>greenback<\/strong> which was translated into increased <strong>risk-taking<\/strong> behavior from <strong>equity traders<\/strong>.&nbsp; In this report we aim to present the recent fundamental and economic news releases that impacted the <strong>US stock markets<\/strong>, look ahead at the upcoming events that could affect their performance and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-markets-await-patiently-for-the-fed-s-decision\"><strong>Markets await patiently for the Fed\u2019s decision<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In today\u2019s American session the star of the day will be the <strong>FED\u2019s interest rate decision<\/strong> and the market\u2019s expectations seem to have solidified. It\u2019s characteristic that <strong>FFF<\/strong> are predicting an 80% probability of a <strong>hike<\/strong> by <strong>25 basis points<\/strong>. There was a lot of speculation in regards to how the <strong>FED<\/strong> would react following the <strong>mini-banking crisis<\/strong> that plagued the US economy in the past few weeks. Most notable were <strong>SVB<\/strong> \u3001 <strong>Silvergate<\/strong> whose <strong>collapses spread contagion fears<\/strong> across numerous banks in Europe, such as <strong>Credit Suisse<\/strong> which led to its acquisition from its long-term rival <strong>UBS<\/strong>. The implications were potentially catastrophic, as many feared this could upend strategic plans laid by the <strong>ECB <\/strong>\u3001<strong> FED<\/strong> in order to combat inflation. However, following the <strong>ECB\u2019s decision<\/strong> to hike rates by <strong>50 basis points<\/strong> and the swift action followed by <strong>SNB<\/strong> for <strong>Credit Suisse<\/strong>, the market anticipates that the <strong>FED<\/strong> could follow <strong>suit<\/strong> with its respective <strong>tightening plans<\/strong>, not of the same magnitude, however. Hence instead of <strong>not<\/strong> <strong>staying on hold<\/strong> and in fear of worsening the already delicate financial situation, the <strong>Fed<\/strong> may opt for the <strong>moderate 25 basis points hike<\/strong> scenario, so that the bank may continue to pursue its <strong>inflationary goal<\/strong> of 2%, without overstressing the <strong>Banking industry.<\/strong> Besides the <strong>Fed\u2019s interest rate decision<\/strong> as such, we also highlight the release of the <strong>&nbsp;<\/strong> which includes its <strong>forward guidance.<\/strong> Should the bank <strong>ease its aggressive<\/strong> <strong>hawkish stance<\/strong> and show some hesitation about its future rate hiking path, we may see the <strong>USD weakening,<\/strong> a scenario that highlights the possibility of an interest rate hike turning to a <strong>dovish hike<\/strong>. That therefore could inadvertently lead on <strong>equity<\/strong> <strong>\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc<\/strong> to indulge in <strong>riskier behavior<\/strong>, and we may see <strong>stock markets<\/strong> head to higher ground. Furthermore, markets will also focus on the release of the <strong>new dot plot<\/strong>, which is expected to broadcast where <strong>FOMC policymakers<\/strong> see the <strong>terminal rate peak<\/strong>. Should the terminal rate remain above market expectations we may see a <strong>bullish sentiment surrounding<\/strong> the <strong>USD<\/strong>, whereas <strong>downplay optimistic scenarios<\/strong> for a rally in the <strong>equities sectors<\/strong>. Also, we note the release of the bank\u2019s new <strong>economic projections<\/strong>. It will be interesting to see whether the <strong>Fed<\/strong> anticipates a recession in the US economy or not. Should the projections point out that the central bank foresees that the US economy is to <strong>avoid a recession<\/strong> or even <strong>encounter<\/strong> <strong>a rather<\/strong> <strong>shallow<\/strong> one, that may allow for the <strong>USD<\/strong> to <strong>gain<\/strong> somewhat. Last but not least, we also note <strong>Fed<\/strong> <strong>Chairman Jerome Powell\u2019s<\/strong> press conference post the decision. The <strong>Fed\u2019s Chairman<\/strong> comments after a decision are notorious for <strong>igniting market volatility<\/strong> and outright cause a <strong>reversal<\/strong> in <strong>market sentiment<\/strong>, therefore we advise caution in regards to <strong>USD-linked pairs<\/strong>. Should the Fed <strong>Chairman<\/strong> actually sound <strong>hawkish<\/strong> enough, we may see the <strong>greenback<\/strong> getting some <strong>support<\/strong> and highlighting once again that the decision may have <strong>ripple effects into equities<\/strong> <strong>markets<\/strong> depending on the outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-technical-analysis\"><strong><u>\u30c6\u30af\u30cb\u30ab\u30eb\u5206\u6790<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-us30-4hour-chart\"><strong>#US30 4Hour Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"455\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-104.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-58218\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 31800 (S1), 31100 (S2), 30300 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 32600 (R1), 33500 (R2), 34500 (R3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at <strong>#US30 4-hour chart<\/strong> we observe the <strong>index<\/strong> <strong>consolidating<\/strong> around the 31800 (S1) <strong>support<\/strong> base over the past week and bouncing higher, closing in the 32600 (R1) <strong>resistance<\/strong> barrier ahead of today\u2019s <strong>Fed<\/strong> <strong>&nbsp;<\/strong>. We hold a <strong>sideways<\/strong> <strong>bias<\/strong> for the index, ahead of today\u2019s decision, awaiting for the results and advising caution. The <strong>RSI<\/strong> indicator below our 4-hour chart that currently registers a reading of 58, which showcases <strong>slight bullish sentiment<\/strong> in favour of the <strong>index<\/strong>, yet the price action remains bounded between the <strong>descending channels\u2019 bounds<\/strong>. Should the <strong>bulls take over<\/strong>, we may see the break above the 32600 (R1) <strong>resistance<\/strong> level and the upper bound of the <strong>descending channel<\/strong> alongside the move of the <strong>index<\/strong> closer to the 33500 (R2) <strong>resistance barrier<\/strong>. In an extremely volatile scenario we may also see the price action rising closer to the 34500 (R3) level. Should the <strong>bears reign over<\/strong> on the other hand, we may see the definitive break below the 31800 (S1) <strong>support<\/strong> level and the lower bound of the <strong>descending channel<\/strong>, alongside the possible break below the 31100 (S2) <strong>support base<\/strong>. Under extreme scenario we may also see the price action heading lower, closer to the 30300 (S3) support range which was last visited during October of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\">\u3053\u306e\u8a18\u4e8b\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306a\u8cea\u554f\u3084\u30b3\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001\u6b21\u306e\u30ea\u30b5\u30fc\u30c1\u30c1\u30fc\u30e0\u306b\u76f4\u63a5\u30e1\u30fc\u30eb\u3092\u9001\u4fe1\u3057\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002<a href=\"mailto:research_team@ironfx.com\" target=\"_self\">research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u514d\u8cac\u4e8b\u9805\uff1a<br>\u672c\u60c5\u5831\u306f\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u52a9\u8a00\u3084\u6295\u8cc7\u63a8\u5968\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u30de\u30fc\u30b1\u30c6\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\u306e\u4e00\u74b0\u3068\u3057\u3066\u63d0\u4f9b\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002IronFX\u306f\u3001\u3053\u3053\u3067\u53c2\u7167\u307e\u305f\u306f\u30ea\u30f3\u30af\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u7b2c\u4e09\u8005\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u63d0\u4f9b\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3044\u304b\u306a\u308b\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u307e\u305f\u306f\u60c5\u5831\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u3082\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US stock markets managed to contain their fall last week, found support and rebounded to higher ground, as the turmoil<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-58217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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