{"id":109466,"date":"2025-05-02T09:16:09","date_gmt":"2025-05-02T06:16:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=109466"},"modified":"2025-05-02T09:16:10","modified_gmt":"2025-05-02T06:16:10","slug":"oil-outlook-oil-prices-in-a-free-fall-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/ko\/oil-outlook-oil-prices-in-a-free-fall-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Outlook: Oil prices in a free fall"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since last week\u2019s report<\/a>, oil prices seem to have continued on their sharp decent. In the current report we are to discuss the conditions characterising the US oil market currently, as well as factors affecting oil demand and supply in the international oil market. We are to complete the fundamentals included in the report with a technical analysis of WTI\u2019s chart.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mixed signals from the US oil market<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We make a start by noting that some aspects of the US<\/strong> oil market show signs of tightening. Starting with the Baker Hughes wti rig count last Friday which showcased an increase in the number of active oil rigs in the US, which tends to be a positive sign for oil prices. Specifically, it showcased an increase in wti rig count by two implying that demand<\/strong> for oil may be increasing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, it\u2019s characteristic that the EIA reported an unexpected contraction of US oil inventories by \u20132.696 million barrels. Yet the API<\/strong> weekly crude oil inventories figure showcased a significant increase in US wti inventories by 3.760 million barrels. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The contradicting reports by the two oil agencies tend to fail to paint a clear picture in the wti market, which could lead to heightened volatility in the market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nonetheless, should both agency\u2019s showcase a drawdown in oil inventories in the coming week, thus imply that demand may be exceeding supply it could in turn aid oil prices. On the flip side, should the showcase an increase in inventories it may have the opposite effect and could thus weigh on oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Saudi appears unfazed from the lower oil prices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Reuters reported earlier on this week that Saudi Arabian<\/strong> officials have been briefing allies and industry experts that the Kingdom is unwilling to prop up the wti market with supply cuts. This may infer that the Kingdom<\/strong> is willing to \u201clive\u201d with a period of prolonged low oil prices. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, OPEC<\/strong> could potentially increase the supply of wti into the market given the already low prices to increase their market share. Nonetheless, the possibility of the Kingdom\u2019s willingness to keep wti prices lower may weigh on the commodity\u2019s<\/strong> price<\/strong> as it could also imply that OPEC the wti cartel may not attempt to artificially increase prices in the near future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In conclusion should further information emerge that Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ is willing to keep wti prices at their currently levels or even possibly increase wti production in the near future, it may weigh on oil prices further. However, should doubt be cast on our aforementioned scenario it may have the opposite effect which in turn could aid oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WTI Cash Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Technical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n