{"id":14391,"date":"2020-02-07T15:55:00","date_gmt":"2021-06-22T08:42:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?post_type=forex-blog&#038;p=14391"},"modified":"2024-06-25T09:43:10","modified_gmt":"2024-06-25T06:43:10","slug":"markets-focus-on-januarys-us-employment-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/ko\/markets-focus-on-januarys-us-employment-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets focus on January\u2019s US employment report"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Today during the American session (13:30, GMT) we get the\u00a0<b>US employment report<\/b>\u00a0for January. The forecasts are for the\u00a0<b>unemployment rate<\/b>\u00a0to remain unchanged at 3.5%, the average\u00a0<b>earnings growth rate<\/b>\u00a0to accelerate and reach +3.0% yoy, if compared to prior rate of +2.9% yoy and the Non-Farm Payrolls figure to\u00a0<b>rise and reach<\/b>\u00a0+160k if compared to December\u2019s figure of +145k. Should the actual rates and figures meet their respective forecasts we could see the\u00a0<b>USD strengthening<\/b>\u00a0as the\u00a0<b>unemployment rate<\/b>\u00a0remains at rather\u00a0<b>low levels<\/b>, average earnings accelerate, implying some\u00a0<b>further inflationary pressures<\/b>\u00a0and the NFP figure remains at rather healthy levels. Such rates and figures could support arguments for a tight US labour market and maintain the current level of confidence of the Fed. Please note that expectations maybe running high after the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/en\/usd-strengthens-on-solid-data\"><b>rise of the ISM readings<\/b><\/a>\u00a0in the past few days, which indicated a\u00a0<b>higher level of economic activity<\/b>\u00a0for both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of the US economy. On the flip side, should the prints disappoint the markets, we could see the USD weakening asymmetrically. EUR\/USD weakened yesterday breaking the 1.0990 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. We maintain a bearish outlook for the pair as the downward trendline incepted since the 3rd of February still guides the pair\u2019s price action. Please note that the RSI reading in the 4-hour chart remains at the reading of 30 indicating the dominance of the bears, yet at the same time could imply a rather overcrowded short position for the pair. Should the bears remain in charge of the pair\u2019s direction, we could see it breaking the 1.0940 (S1) support line aiming for lower grounds. On the other hand, should the bulls take over, we could see the pair, breaking the 1.0990 (R1) resistance line aiming for the 1.1050 (R2) resistance level.<\/p>\n<h3>AUD weakens on coronavirus worries again<\/h3>\n<p>The\u00a0<b>Aussie weakened<\/b>\u00a0yesterday against the USD as\u00a0<b>worries for the coronavirus<\/b>\u00a0and its effects on the\u00a0<b>Australian economy<\/b>\u00a0resurfaced. With the disease still spreading and no end in sight, analysts tend to note that that the\u00a0<b>hit on the Australian economy<\/b>\u00a0may be\u00a0<b>bigger than expected<\/b>. It should be noted that some have even revised their Q1 GDP forecasts to show a\u00a0<b>possible contraction<\/b>\u00a0of the Australian economy. The\u00a0<b>weakening of the AUD<\/b>\u00a0occurred even though\u00a0<b>RBA\u2019s Governor Lowe<\/b>\u00a0once again underscored the bank\u2019s hesitation to cut rates. Speaking at the Australian Parliament Governor Lowe stated that it would require a material rise in unemployment to tilt the bank\u2019s balance in favor of a cut. We could see the\u00a0<b>Aussie being more pressured<\/b>\u00a0by\u00a0<b>coronavirus worries<\/b>\u00a0in the next few days. Also, we maintain some worries, as China\u2019s trade data for January which were allready due out, have not been released yet and could affect the Aussie\u2019s direction. AUD\/USD dropped yesterday as it abandoned the highs of the 0.6755 (R2) resistance level and broke slightly below the 0.6723 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance as well. We maintain a bearish bias for the pair as a new downward trendline seems to start forming yet more data are necessary to confirm it. Should the pair remain under the selling interest of the market, we could see it aiming if not breaking the 0.6685 (S1) support line. On the flip side should the pair\u2019s long positions be favored by the market, we could see it breaking the 0.6723 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 0.6685 (R2) resistance level.<\/p>\n<h3>Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow<\/h3>\n<p>During the European session today, we get from Germany the industrial output and the trade data both for the December. In the American session we get Canada\u2019s employment data, and the Ivey PMI, both for January, while later on we get from the US the Baker Hughes oil rig count. In Monday\u2019s Asian session Japan\u2019s current account balance and China\u2019s inflationary measures for January are due out.<\/p>\n<p><b>EUR\/USD 4 Hour chart<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/shared.gighl.com\/Morning-Pictures-2020\/2-February-20\/07-02-2020\/eur-usd-four-hour-chart.PNG\" alt=\"support at one point zero nine four zero and resistance at one point zero nine nine zero, direction down\" \/><\/p>\n<p><b>Support: 1.0940 (S1), 1.0885 (S2), 1.0830 (S3)<br \/>\nResistance: 1.0990 (R1), 1.1050 (R2), 1.1105 (R3)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>AUD\/USD 4 Hour chart<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/shared.gighl.com\/Morning-Pictures-2020\/2-February-20\/07-02-2020\/aud-usd-four-hour-chart.PNG\" alt=\"support at zero point six six eight five resistance at zero point six seven two three, direction down\" \/><\/p>\n<p><b>Support: 0.6685 (S1), 0.6650 (S2), 0.6610 (S3)<br \/>\nResistance: 0.6723 (R1), 0.6755 (R2), 0.6790 (R3)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/shared.gighl.com\/Morning-Pictures-2020\/2-February-20\/07-02-2020\/Benchmark.png\" alt=\"Benchmark\/07-02-2020\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/shared.gighl.com\/Morning-Pictures-2020\/2-February-20\/07-02-2020\/Table.png\" alt=\"Table\/07-02-2020\" \/><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today during the American session (13:30, GMT) we get the\u00a0US employment report\u00a0for January. The forecasts are for the\u00a0unemployment rate\u00a0to remain<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_daim_seo_power":"","_daim_enable_ail":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Markets focus on January\u2019s US employment report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"US employment data today may boost USD if unemployment stays low, earnings rise, and NFP meets expectations. 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