{"id":56824,"date":"2023-02-28T15:33:42","date_gmt":"2023-02-28T13:33:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=56824"},"modified":"2026-02-09T10:12:01","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T08:12:01","slug":"pce-data-dampens-golds-appeal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/ko\/pce-data-dampens-golds-appeal\/","title":{"rendered":"PCE data dampens gold\u2019s appeal"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>\uace8\ub4dc<\/strong> extended its declines <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/en\/golds-shine-dampened-by-stronger-dollar\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">over the past week<\/a> as the <strong>dollar<\/strong> found renewed support from the hotter-than-anticipated core PCE data which reinforced the narrative that the US central bank will need to adopt a more restrictive monetary policy stance to contain inflation from becoming deeply ingrained within the US economy. This report aims to shed light on the catalysts driving the precious metal\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Hotter-than-expected PCE print fuels bets for more aggressive tightening<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last Friday, the <strong>Fed\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>favourite<\/strong> <strong>inflation<\/strong> metric, the <strong>core PCE index<\/strong> came out hotter than expected and restoked fears that the central bank will be forced to hike rates more than originally forecasted. More specifically, the year-on-year <strong>Core PCE index<\/strong> which excludes volatile fuel and food costs, rose to 4.7% in January, higher than the market\u2019s consensus, which expected a slowdown to the 4.3% level, but was also higher than the 4.6% reading of the prior month. The <strong>PCE index<\/strong> was also sharply higher to 5.4% beating estimates for a slowdown to 5%. The results practically validated the concerns of the committee that inflationary pressures are not abating fast enough and their stickier nature may pose as a structural systemic risk if not addressed properly with more rate increases. As a result, the market had to downplay their overoptimistic speculative bets for a Fed pivot and readjust their forecasts, evident from the apparent <strong>strength<\/strong> in the <strong>USD<\/strong> on Friday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold, on the other hand, fell sharply lower, extending its weeks-long fall, since higher borrowing costs for a prolonged period of time, inadvertently <strong>increase<\/strong> the <strong>opportunity cost<\/strong> of holding the <strong>non-interest-bearing bullion<\/strong>. Adding more fuel to the fire, the results of the US <strong>personal spending<\/strong> metric added more confidence in the <strong>Fed\u2019s<\/strong> case for a tighter monetary policy going forward, since an uptick to the 1.8% level was recorded. Pair that with a <strong>stubbornly robust employment<\/strong> <strong>market<\/strong> that has yet to show any cracks and the probabilities for a <strong>more restrictive stance<\/strong> by <strong>Fed<\/strong> increase substantially. Validating the view for a <strong>harsher Fed<\/strong> in the future were the comments from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester who stated in a speech post the PCE result that \u201cit\u2019s going to take more effort on the part of the Fed to get inflation on that sustainable downward path to 2%.\u201d Moreover, yesterday, Fed Governor Jefferson commented on the elevated core PCE index results of Friday and stated that &#8220;I&#8217;m under no illusion that it&#8217;s going to be easy to get the inflation rate back down to 2%,&#8221; and added, &#8220;there&#8217;s a lot of resolve on the part of the Committee. I know that I am committed to doing what it takes\u201d, signalling to the market to brace for more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>FOMC meeting minutes signal more hikes inbound<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week\u2019s release of the latest <strong>Fed meeting minutes<\/strong> pointed out the unanimous resolve of the committee to raise rates further yet at a slower pace. At the same time, the members acknowledged the <strong>upside risks<\/strong> of <strong>inflation<\/strong> becoming deeply entrenched in the US economy and noted that inflation remains the key factor that shapes the <strong>central bank\u2019s policy<\/strong> <strong>outlook<\/strong>. Furthermore, the importance of deciding on how large the upcoming interest rate increases will be depended on incoming data and should there be a <strong>reignition of inflationary pressures<\/strong> as we move further into 2023, there might be a readjustment of the projected <strong>terminal rate<\/strong>. That inadvertently could lead to dots moving higher on the <strong>dot plot graph<\/strong>, expected at the March meeting and analysts foresee that we may see the <strong>projected median being pushed higher<\/strong> to 5.6%, meaning another 25-basis points hike may be due. According to December\u2019s dot plot graph, the central bank forecasted a 5.1% median target rate, a projection that might be revised higher should inflationary pressures fail to ease or fail to maintain the Fed\u2019s projected path towards the 2% level. Currently, the Feds Funds Futures assign a 77% probability for a 25-basis points rate hike in the March meeting, alongside another two 25 basis points increases in May and June, respectively, with a 5.25-5.5% serving as the target rate in the eyes of the market. Should incoming data validate the view that more hikes are needed to curb inflationary pressures we may see the dollar receive further inflows and as a result see gold coming under pressure since the prospects for <strong>tighter financial conditions<\/strong> dampen the appeal of the <strong>shiny metal<\/strong> in the eyes of investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-technical-analysis\"><strong>\uae30\uc220\uc801 \ubd84\uc11d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>XAUUSD H4 Chart<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"291\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/xau-usd-4h-chart-28-02-2023-technical-analysis.png\" alt=\"XAUUSD gold 4-hour chart showing bearish trend and key support and resistance levels\" class=\"wp-image-56827\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Support: 1800 (S1), 1785 (S2), 1770 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance: 1820 (R1), 1835 (R2), 1850 (R3)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at <strong>XAUUSD<\/strong> 4-hour chart we observe that <strong>gold<\/strong> has been on the retreat since the start of February pressured by a series of <strong>better-than-expected US economic data<\/strong> that lifted the <strong>dollar<\/strong> at the expense of the <strong>precious<\/strong>. We hold a <strong>bearish outlook bias<\/strong> given that the price action remains confined within the bounds of the <strong>descending channel,<\/strong> forming lower highs and lower troughs as <strong>gold<\/strong> travels to lower ground. Supporting our case is the <strong>RSI indicator<\/strong> below our 4-hour chart currently registers a value of 34, showcasing the <strong>bearish tendencies<\/strong> surrounding the <strong>precious<\/strong>. Should the <strong>bears reign over,<\/strong> we may see the price action break below the $1800 (S1) support level and move lower closer to the $1785 (S2) <strong>support base<\/strong>. Should the <strong>bulls take over<\/strong>, we may see the break above the $1820 (R1) resistance level and move closer to the $1835 (R2) <strong>resistance<\/strong> <strong>barrier<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uba74\ucc45 \uc870\ud56d:<br><em>\ubcf8 \uc815\ubcf4\ub294 \ud22c\uc790 \uc790\ubb38\uc774\ub098 \ud22c\uc790 \uad8c\uc720\uac00 \uc544\ub2cc \ub9c8\ucf00\ud305 \ucee4\ubba4\ub2c8\ucf00\uc774\uc158\uc73c\ub85c \uac04\uc8fc\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold closed in the reds last week, pressured by stronger than&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[376,355,386,411,780,338],"class_list":["post-56824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-gold","tag-gold-market","tag-gold-price","tag-gold-traders","tag-market-research","tag-technical-analysis","blog-category-metals","blog_tag-gold","blog_tag-gold-market","blog_tag-gold-price","blog_tag-gold-traders","blog_tag-market-research","blog_tag-technical-analysis","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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