{"id":136571,"date":"2026-10-05T13:04:45","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T10:04:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=136571"},"modified":"2026-10-05T13:05:22","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T10:05:22","slug":"political-and-fiscal-uncertainty-weighs-on-the-eur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/ph\/political-and-fiscal-uncertainty-weighs-on-the-eur\/","title":{"rendered":"Political and fiscal uncertainty weighs on the EUR"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD remains strong EUR weakens<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The USD remained strong despite September\u2019s US employment report<\/a> coming in weaker than expected. The Fed\u2019s September meeting minutes on Wednesday could be the next test for USD and a possibly hawkish tone could support USD. Also, the EUR is weakening in the FX market, given the worries for France\u2019s fiscal outlook and political unrest, while Spain is calling for a snap election and Italian bonds are being sold off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US equities remain mixed<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

US equities edged higher on Friday, yet the tendencies seem to remain mixed as the index seem to follow different directions. Overall, the weak September US employment data tended to ease market expectations for the Fed to tighten its monetary policy, lifting US equities slightly. We consider the tech sector as still being the stock market barometer for now and a possible lifting of the market sentiment could lift US equities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil prices continue to oscillate<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Oil prices edged lower on Friday and during today\u2019s Asian session, yet seem to remain within a range. Fundamentally the increase of oil flows out of the Middle East and market expectations for G7 to release 100 million barrels, tended to weigh on oil prices. Yet the worries for a possible flare up of tensions in the region tend to keep the losses contained and a substantial escalation could lift oil prices.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other highlights for today<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Today we get Turkey\u2019s CPI rates for September, Euro Zone\u2019s and the UK\u2019s final composite and services PMI figures for September. Euro Zone\u2019s Sentix index for October and the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI figure for September. On a monetary level we note that ECB\u2019s Schnabel, Buch, Kocher and Donnery speak. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the rest of the week<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On Tuesday we get Germany\u2019s industrial orders for August, the Czech Republic\u2019s CPI rates for September and Canada\u2019s trade data for August.\u00a0 On Wednesday we get Germany\u2019s industrial output for August, Sweden\u2019s CPI Rates for September and the Fed releases the minutes of the September meeting. On Thursday we get Japan\u2019s current account balance for August and the weekly US initial jobless claims figure. On Friday, we get Sweden\u2019s GDP rate for August, Norway\u2019s CPI rates for September, Canada\u2019s employment data for the same month and from the US the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment for October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Charts to keep an eye out<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

EUR\/USD<\/strong> continued to move lower and in today\u2019s Asian session broke the 1.1210 (R1) resistance line, now turned to support. We maintain a bearish outlook for the pair and intend to keep it as long as the downward trendline continues to guide it. Yet the pair seems to be in oversold territory given that the RSI indicator has breached below the reading of 30, thus we issue warning for a possible correction higher. Should the bears continue to lead EUR\/USD we may see it aiming if not breaching the 1.1065 (S1) support line. Should the bulls take over, EUR\/USD could break the 1.1210 (R1) resistance line, continue to break also the downward trendline guiding it, signalling an interruption of the pair\u2019s downward motion and continue higher aiming if not reaching the 1.1350 (R2) resistance level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EUR\/USD Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
Support: 1.1065 (S1), 1.0955 (S2), 1.0820 (S3)
Resistance: 1.1210 (R1), 1.1350 (R2), 1.1475 (R3)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

WTI<\/strong>\u2019s price edged lower on Friday and during today\u2019s Asian session, yet its price action is still within the boundaries set by the R1 and the S1. We maintain a bias for the sideways motion of WTI\u2019s price to continue\u00a0 for now, given also that the RSI indicator remains near the reading of 50, implying a rather indecisive market. Should the bears take control over WTI, we may see it breaking the 87.55 (S1) and start aiming for the 82.00 (S2) support level. Should the bulls take over, WTI\u2019s price, may break the 94.30 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 101.00 (R2) resistance level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WTI Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
Support: 87.55 (S1), 82.00 (S2), 76.60 (S3)
Resistance: 94.30 (R1), 101.00 (R2), 108.85 (R3)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Disclaimer:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD remains strong EUR weakens The USD remained strong despite September\u2019s US employment report coming in weaker than expected. 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