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The US PCE rates for July are set to be released during today’s American session and are set to be garner significant attention from market participants, especially considering that the release could set the tone going into next week where the US Employment data is set to be released. In today’s American session the US PCE rates on a core level are expected to showcase an uptick in inflationary pressures in the US economy. Therefore should the Core PCE rate come in as expected it may increase calls for the Fed to potentially refrain from aggressively cutting rates in the near future and could thus aid the dollar. However, in our opinion for a strategic shift from the dovish tone which emerged from Fed Chair Powell to occur, the PCE rates may need to substantially deviate from the economists’ expectations.In today’s European session Germany’s preliminary HICP rates for August are set to be released today. The preliminary HICP rate on a year-on-year level is expected to showcase an acceleration of inflationary pressures in the Eurozone and could thus provide support for the common currency leading up to the American session.In Canada the nation’s GDP rates for Q2 are also set to be released during today’s Americans session. The particular release we mentioned could weigh on the Loonie as it would show a contraction of economic growth and could thus raise concerns over the state of the Canadian economy. However, we should note that on a month-on-month level for June the GDP rate is set to improve compared to the previous month and could thus aid or mitigate the negative implications on the Loonie which may occur as a result of the Q2 GDP release.
XAU/USD appears to be moving in an upwards fashion after clearing our resistance now turned to support at the 3385 (S1) support level. We opt for a bullish outlook for gold’s price and supporting our case is the upwards moving trendline in addition to the RSI and MACD indicator below our chart. For our bullish outlook to continue we would require a break above the 3500 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the hypothetical 3645 (R2) resistance line. On the other hand, for a sideways bias we would require the commodity’s price to remain confined between the 3385 (S1) support level and the 3500 (R1) resistance line. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below our 3385 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bears being the 3240 (S2) support line.
USD/JPY appears to be moving in a sideways bias. We opt for a neutral outlook for the pair and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 50, implying a neutral market sentiment. For our sideways bias to be maintained, we would require the pair to remain confined between our 146.25 (S1) support level and our 148.50 (R1) resistance line. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook, we would require a clear break above our 148.50 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being the 150.75 (R2) resistance level. Lastly, for a bearish outlook to occur we would require a clear break below our 146.25 (S1) support line with the next possible target for the bears being the 144.35 (S2) support level.
Other highlights for the day:
Today we get Switzerland’s GDP rates for Q2, the Eurozone’s final consumer confidence figure for August, the US’s 2nd GDP Estimate for Q2 and the weekly initial jobless claims figure. In tomorrow’s Asian session we note Japan’s Tokyo CPI rates for August, Japan’s preliminary Industrial output rate for July and Japan’s retail sales rate for July.
XAU/USD Daily Chart
- Support: 3385 (S1), 3240 (S2), 3115 (S3)
- Resistance: 3500 (R1), 3645 (R2), 3790 (R3)
USD/JPY Daily Chart
- Support: 146.25 (S1), 144.35 (S2), 142.15 (S3)
- Resistance: 148.50 (R1), 150.75 (R2), 153.35 (R3)
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