{"id":120235,"date":"2025-09-16T17:20:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T14:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=120235"},"modified":"2026-01-16T14:50:12","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T12:50:12","slug":"gold-outlook-gold-traders-focus-on-the-feds-interest-rate-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/pt\/gold-outlook-gold-traders-focus-on-the-feds-interest-rate-decision\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Gold traders focus on the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold bulls seem to continue to lead the precious metal\u2019s price since our last report<\/a>. The market\u2019s dovish expectations for the Fed\u2019s intentions may be the dominant fundamental factor underpinning the rise of gold\u2019s price. We are also to examine whether the negative correlation of the USD with gold\u2019s price is active and conclude the report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative correlation of gold with USD being re-activated<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The negative correlation of the USD with gold\u2019s price was an issue that always stayed in the back of gold trader\u2019s minds. In the past week the relative stability of gold and the USD index did not allow for traders to decide whether the negative correlation of the two trading instruments is active or not for the prementioned period. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet their movement yesterday and during today\u2019s Asian and European session, seems to give more clues as on the one hand gold\u2019s price managed to rise to new record high levels, while on the flip side the USD index is losing ground. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The opposite direction of the two trading instruments seems to allow for analysts to highlight a possible revival of the negative correlation of the two trading instruments in the current stage, something that is understandable given the expectations for the high impact release of the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision tomorrow. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence should we see the USD weakening further we may see gold\u2019s price reaching new highs, while should the USD gaining ground, it could weigh on gold\u2019s price. Furthermore, we note that US bond yields show a relative stabilisation, yet the stabilisation is at relatively low levels which tends to make the shiny metal more attractive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold traders focus on the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The main event for the week for gold traders is expected to be the release of the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision tomorrow. T<\/p>\n\n\n\n

he bank is widely expected to remain on hold tomorrow and Fed Fund Futures (FFF) imply currently, a probability of 97.4% for such a scenario to materialise, practically implying that the market has almost fully priced in such a scenario. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet FFF also imply that the market expects another two rate cuts to be delivered by the bank until the end of the year, one in October and one in December. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall that tends to highlight the market\u2019s dovish expectations for the bank\u2019s intentions. Hence should the bank lower interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, which our base scenario as well, we may see the market\u2019s attention being shifted towards the Fed\u2019s forward guidance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The forward guidance is expected to be included in three elements. The first is to be the accompanying statement and should the bank signal that it\u2019s prepared to proceed with more rate cuts in the following meetings, thus verifying the markets\u2019 expectations, it would be an element supporting gold\u2019s price, while a possible hesitancy on behalf of the bank to cut rates further, cut force the market to ease its dovish expectations and thus weigh on gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second element of interest would be the bank\u2019s new dot plot. The dot plot which is included in the banks\u2019 projections shows where Fed policymakers expect interest rates to land at the end of 2025, 2026, 2027 and in the longer run. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the Fed policymakers through the new dot plot exceed the market\u2019s dovish expectations for the end of the year implying possibly a double rate cut either in the October or December meetings, the markets\u2019 dovish expectations could be enhanced asymmetrically thus providing substantial support for gold\u2019s price, yet such a scenario seems to be remote. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand should the new dot plot imply that the bank intends to cut rates only one more time until the end of the year, we may see gold\u2019s price falling. The last element at which the bank could provide more clues regarding its intentions would be Fed Chairman Jerome Powell\u2019s press conference later on. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fed Chairman could switch the market mood easily, something that he has achieved a number of times in the past. Should Fed Chairman Powell signal readiness the bank\u2019s readiness to proceed with further easing of the Fed\u2019s monetary policy we may see the press conference allowing for some support to build up for gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet should the Fed Chairman express hesitation for further easing of the bank\u2019s monetary policy, or the extend of further easing, could weigh on gold\u2019s price. Possible factors to watch out for in the press conference but also in the accompanying statement would be a possible over-emphasizing inflationary pressures in the US economy and at the same time downplaying the weakness of the US employment market and such elements could weigh on gold\u2019s price and vice versa as the bank has to balance between a weak US employment market and relatively stubborn inflationary pressures in the US economy.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAU\/USD Daily Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Gold<\/figure>\n\n\n\n