{"id":64859,"date":"2023-06-22T15:52:02","date_gmt":"2023-06-22T12:52:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=64859"},"modified":"2026-02-09T10:07:42","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T08:07:42","slug":"oil-reverses-course-as-global-recession-worries-resurface","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/pt\/oil-reverses-course-as-global-recession-worries-resurface\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil reverses course, as Global recession worries resurface"},"content":{"rendered":"

WTI appears to be reversing<\/strong> course<\/strong> since the beginning of the week, as worries about a global recession are once again heightened. Prospects for future demand appear to be at the centre stage this week. In this report, we aim to shed light on the factors driving WTI\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is a Global recession unavoidable?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As Central<\/strong> Banks<\/strong> continue to increase<\/strong> their interest rates<\/strong>, such as the ECB, BoE, SNB<\/strong> one can only wonder as to whether that the global<\/strong> economy<\/strong> will enter a recession<\/strong>, is only a matter of time. Persistent<\/strong> inflationary<\/strong> pressures<\/strong> in the world\u2019s largest economies, continue to worry<\/strong> traders<\/strong>, as the continuance<\/strong> of the aggressive<\/strong> interest policy<\/strong> in hopes of stopping<\/strong> inflation, inadvertently hinders<\/strong> economic growth<\/strong>. The BoE\u2019s<\/strong> interest rate hike by 50<\/strong> basis points, earlier today was a stark<\/strong> reminder<\/strong> that the fight<\/strong> against inflation<\/strong> is not over and with analysts<\/strong> anticipating that a recession<\/strong> may be the only way for the central banks to reach<\/strong> their 2%<\/strong> inflation<\/strong> target, Oil (Petr\u00f3leo)<\/strong> seems to be facing<\/strong> the brunt<\/strong> of those market<\/strong> worries<\/strong>. As the effects<\/strong> of quantitative<\/strong> tightening<\/strong> start to emerge<\/strong> in the markets<\/strong>, demand<\/strong> for goods and services might be mitigated<\/strong>, as consumers<\/strong> are less<\/strong> willing<\/strong> to spend<\/strong> and would rather save more, hence a reduction in consumer spending could lead to a decrease in the price of the liquid gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed Chair Powell clearly indicates that more rate hikes are to come<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The statements<\/strong> made by Fed Chair Powell<\/strong> during his planned bi-annual testimony<\/strong> before the House of Representative yesterday, appears to have reduced<\/strong> market expectations<\/strong> of the Fed<\/strong> potentially remaining on pause<\/strong> ou cutting<\/strong> interest rates by the end of the year. It was characteristic<\/strong> that the Fed Chair\u2019s comments<\/strong> re-iterated that \u201cInflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent<\/strong>\u201d with nearly all FOMC participants expecting that it will be appropriate<\/strong> to raise<\/strong> interest<\/strong> rates<\/strong> further<\/strong> by the end of the year<\/strong>. The possibility of the Fed<\/strong> continuing on its aggressive<\/strong> interest rate<\/strong> warpath<\/strong>, seems to have heightened<\/strong> market worries<\/strong> that the Fed\u2019s goal of brining inflation<\/strong> down to 2% will be achieved, no matter the cost<\/strong> . Therefore, inflation<\/strong> may be brought down at the expense<\/strong> of the economy<\/strong>, leading to a reduction<\/strong> in the price of Oil (Petr\u00f3leo)<\/strong>, as fears of an economic slowdown<\/strong>, seem to be taking the lead<\/strong> in the price<\/strong> of Oil (Petr\u00f3leo)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is Russia a team player?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, OPEC<\/strong> had re-iterated that Russia<\/strong> was committed<\/strong> to the production<\/strong> cuts<\/strong> that had been pledged. However<\/strong>, according to Bloomberg<\/a> , Russian President Putin, during the St Petersburg economic<\/strong> forum<\/strong> last week, seemed to undermine<\/strong> that idea by stating that the output<\/strong>  in Russia  is growing<\/strong>, implying<\/strong> that instead<\/strong> of reducing<\/strong> production<\/strong>, Russia<\/strong> has been actually<\/strong> increasing<\/strong> the supply<\/strong> of Oil in the market. In the event that it is proved and stated by major OPEC+ nations that, Russia continues to undermine<\/strong> OPEC<\/strong>+, it is our own opinion that Saudi<\/strong> Arabia<\/strong> will be more stringent<\/strong> on Oil (Petr\u00f3leo)<\/strong> cuts<\/strong>. Furthermore, the Kingdom<\/strong> could also in theory pressure<\/strong> oil producing countries to commit<\/strong> for further<\/strong> cuts<\/strong> in the future, in an attempt to combat<\/strong> Russia\u2019s perceived insubordination<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lise t\u00e9cnica<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WTI Cash 4H Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"WTI<\/figure>\n\n\n\n