{"id":65278,"date":"2023-06-29T15:58:41","date_gmt":"2023-06-29T12:58:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=65278"},"modified":"2026-02-06T16:18:07","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T14:18:07","slug":"oil-finds-support-following-eia-release","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/pt\/oil-finds-support-following-eia-release\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil finds support following EIA release"},"content":{"rendered":"
WTI appears to be reversing course since the beginning of the week and moving higher, following the release of $9.604M barrels of oil by the EIA. In this report, we aim to shed light on the factors driving WTI\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
OPEC and Guyana<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
According to news reports OPEC and Guyana where in talks this week for the country to participate in OPEC meetings. By participating in meetings, it could be seen as a stepping stone before joining the group itself, a move that could potentially allow the group to increase control over the global oil market through tightening their grip on the supply of oil. Interestingly on Thursday a Canadian oil company named CGX announced that it had made a significant discovery of oil on the coast of Guyana, at the Corentyne block located 100 nautical miles from the coast of Georgetown. The development appears to be elevating the region\u2019s status as an oil producing nation, which could be tied to the attempts made by OPEC to include the nation in its deliberations. However, it is important to note that the country\u2019s Vice President had stated that the country was not interested in joining OPEC, therefore striking down any speculation that Guyana would be joining the group, for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
US EIA releases 9.6M barrels of oil into the market<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
On Wednesday, the EIA released 9.604M barrels of oil into the market, vastly exceeding market expectations of a release of 1.757M barrels. The much higher than expected release, appeared to be indicative of a continued tight oil market, with demand appearing to remain strong despite early indications of a slowdown in the US economy. However, we note that tomorrow\u2019s financial releases during the Asian session, could heavily influence the price of oil. During tomorrow\u2019s Asian session, market analysts are anticipating China\u2019s NBS Manufacturing PMI figures which are expected to shed light on China\u2019s limping economy recovery. In the event that the PMI figures are indicative of a deterioration in economic activity, we may see the price of oil declining, whereas should it be indicative of an expansion, it may provide support for oil\u2019s prices, as China is the world\u2019s largest oil importer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Norway announced $18.5 billion worth of new oil and gas projects<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Norway announced 19 new oil and gas projects on the country\u2019s continental shelf, investing approximately $18.5 billion to facilitate the expansion of existing fields and the creation of new ones. The new projects according to the Government, is in order to facilitate Europe\u2019s energy needs in the long run, thus decreasing the continents dependency on countries which may be considered as malignant. However, following the announcement, the Government was sued by environmental groups, who are seeking an injunction on the projects, claiming that Norway has violated a 2020 Supreme court ruling, that requires the Government to assess global impacts on the environment from field developments. In conclusion, should Norway continue to expand its oil and gas fields, we may see a long term increase in price of oil, as the expansion could signal expectations of higher demand in the long run, despite climate pledges to reduce dependency on non-renewable sources of energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
WTI seems to be moving in a sideways<\/strong> fashion<\/strong>, after having broken<\/strong> below last week\u2019s<\/strong> upwards<\/strong> moving<\/strong> channel<\/strong>. We tend to maintain a neutral outlook for oil and supporting our case is the formation of a sideways<\/strong> moving channel<\/strong> since the 23rd<\/sup> of June, the RSI<\/strong> indicator below our 4-Hour chart currently registering<\/strong> a figure<\/strong> at 50, implying a neutral<\/strong> market sentiment<\/strong>, in addition to the narrowing<\/strong> of the Bollinger<\/strong> bands<\/strong>, implying baixa<\/strong> market Volatilidade<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For our neutral<\/strong> outlook<\/strong> to continue, we would like to see the commodity<\/strong>, remaining<\/strong> confined<\/strong> in the sideways<\/strong> moving channel<\/strong>, formed by the boundaries<\/strong> of support<\/strong> at 67.65 (S1) and resistance<\/strong> at 70.15 (R1). For a bullish<\/strong> outlook, we would like to see a clear break<\/strong> above<\/strong> the 70.15 9R1) resistance<\/strong> level, with the next possible target<\/strong> for the bulls<\/strong> being the 72.50 (R2) resistance<\/strong> ceiling<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the other hand, for a bearish<\/strong> outlook<\/strong> we would like to see a clear<\/strong> break<\/strong> below<\/strong> support<\/strong> at 67.65 (S1) with the next possible target<\/strong> for the bears<\/strong> being the 65.05 (S2) support<\/strong> level<\/strong>. However, we note that China\u2019s NBS Manufacturing PMI figures for June<\/strong>, due tomorrow could heavily<\/strong> impact<\/strong> oil\u2019s<\/strong> direction<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Isen\u00e7\u00e3o de responsabilidade: Esta informa\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00e3o dever\u00e1 ser considerada como aconselhamento ou recomenda\u00e7\u00e3o ao investimento, mas apenas como comunica\u00e7\u00e3o de marketing.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
WTI appears to be reversing course since the beginning…<\/p>\n
![\"Oil](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/wti-oil-4h-chart-29062023-technical.png\")
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