{"id":50910,"date":"2023-01-05T15:23:32","date_gmt":"2023-01-05T13:23:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=50910"},"modified":"2026-02-11T09:20:17","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T07:20:17","slug":"wti-sheds-more-than-9-in-first-two-trading-days-of-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/ru\/wti-sheds-more-than-9-in-first-two-trading-days-of-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"WTI sheds more than 9% in first two trading days of 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As we entered the new year, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/en\/oil-outlook-wti-rallies-as-we-enter-critical-winter-period\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>WTI<\/strong> prices<\/a> <strong>came under significant pressure<\/strong> recording the <strong>biggest two-day loss in over three decades<\/strong>, as surging <strong>covid cases<\/strong> in <strong>China<\/strong> clouded the short-term demand outlook and a <strong>hawkish Federal Reserve<\/strong> that wants to push rates higher for longer in order to squash <strong>inflation<\/strong>, increases the risk of tipping the US economy into a <strong>recession<\/strong> . Moreover, grim <strong>warnings<\/strong> by the <strong>IMF<\/strong> for a rough year hurt energy traders\u2019 sentiment, since the <strong>Fund forecasts recessions<\/strong> across one-third of the global economy. The unscheduled <strong>shutdown<\/strong> of a <strong>US pipeline<\/strong> late Wednesday, aided at the rebound of <strong>WTI<\/strong> prices in today\u2019s session, <strong>snapping a two-day losing streak<\/strong>. In this report, we aim to shed light on the catalysts driving WTI\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-imf-s-stark-outlook-for-2023\"><strong>IMF\u2019s stark outlook for 2023 <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On New Year\u2019s Day, the <strong>head<\/strong> of the <strong>International Monetary Fund<\/strong>, Kristalina Georgieva, delivered a <strong>grim<\/strong> <strong>global<\/strong> <strong>outlook<\/strong> for <strong>2023<\/strong>. The fund\u2019s managing director stated that 2023 is to be \u201c<strong>tougher than the year we leave behind<\/strong>\u201d and foresees that one-third of the countries of the global economy will fall victim to <strong>recessions<\/strong>. The rationale behind the gloomy outlook is predicated upon, the <strong>simultaneous slowdown<\/strong> of <strong>economic activity<\/strong> from the world\u2019s three <strong>largest powerhouses<\/strong> namely the <strong>US<\/strong>, <strong>China<\/strong> \u0438 <strong>Europe<\/strong>, and is being exacerbated by <strong>persistent inflationary<\/strong> <strong>pressures<\/strong>, <strong>high-interest rates<\/strong>, the <strong>ongoing war<\/strong> in Ukraine and the uncertainty surrounding <strong>China\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>exit<\/strong> from <strong>covid zero policy<\/strong>. The IMF placed particular emphasis on <strong>China\u2019s<\/strong> <strong>growth projections<\/strong> and warned that \u201cfor the next couple of months, it would be tough for China, and the impact on Chinese <strong>growth<\/strong> <strong>would be<\/strong> <strong>negative<\/strong>\u201d and highlighted that surging <strong>infection cases<\/strong> across the country are expected to <strong>hurt the economy<\/strong>, impacting growth on the domestic as well as on the international level. The warnings caused energy traders to <strong>reconsider their bullish<\/strong> <strong>stance<\/strong> against the long-awaited relaxation of the country\u2019s zero covid policy, which was expected to boost <strong>crude oil<\/strong> <strong>demand<\/strong> from the second largest oil-consuming country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-unscheduled-shutdown-of-the-key-pipeline-puts-a-floor-under-crude-s-price\"><strong>The unscheduled shutdown of the key pipeline puts a floor under crude\u2019s price<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Earlier today, <strong>oil prices found support<\/strong> after two sessions of heavy losses, as traders quickly assessed a report issued by <strong>Colonial Pipeline<\/strong>, a pipeline operator in the US, declaring that its Line 3 has been <strong>shut down<\/strong> <strong>for<\/strong> <strong>maintenance<\/strong> and it will be inoperable for the next few days. The <strong>unscheduled maintenance<\/strong> raised optimism for a short-term rally in oil prices and oil traders will be monitoring closely any further developments in regard to the restart of the pipeline. The operator expects the pipeline to go online during the weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-crude-oil-inventories-buildup\"><strong>Crude oil inventories buildup<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesterday, the weekly <strong>API crude oil inventories<\/strong> figure pointed to the <strong>buildup<\/strong> of -3.3 million barrels in stocks signalling a <strong>slack in demand<\/strong> for oil and reflecting the downward trajectory crude prices had this week. Later today the <strong>EIA weekly crude oil inventories<\/strong> are expected to record a <strong>buildup<\/strong> of 1.15 million barrels according to estimates, higher than the 0.7 million recorded last week. Should the actual figure meet the expectation, we may see the <strong>oil prices weaken<\/strong>, paring some of the intraday gains recorded today. Lastly, we would note that last Friday the <strong>Baker Hughes oil rig count<\/strong> showed that the number of active oil rigs in the US has dropped by a count of 1 reaching a total of 621.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-technical-analysis\"><strong><u>\u0422\u0435\u0445\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-wti-cash-h4\"><strong>WTI Cash H4<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"282\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/wti-oil-4h-chart-05-1-2022-technical-analysis.png\" alt=\"WTI drops sharply in early 2023 on 4H oil price chart\" class=\"wp-image-50912\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at the <strong>WTICash<\/strong> 4-hour chart we note the <strong>descending trendline<\/strong> initiated on the 1<sup>st<\/sup> of January highlighting the <strong>sharp fall of crude oil prices<\/strong> in the first days of 2023, as warnings for a <strong>global<\/strong> <strong>recession<\/strong> weighed on sentiment. Earlier today <strong>WTI found support<\/strong> near the 73.50 (S1) level as a major <strong>pipeline<\/strong> in the US was shut down for maintenance. We hold a <strong>bearish outlook bias<\/strong> for crude oil prices despite today\u2019s upward move breaking above the <strong>descending trendline<\/strong>. The <strong>RSI indicator<\/strong> below our chart currently registers a value of 32, recovering from its brief fall below the 30 <strong>oversold thresholds<\/strong> and highlighting the <strong>extreme bearish sentiment<\/strong> surrounding the <strong>commodity<\/strong>. Should the <strong>bears regain control<\/strong>, we may see the price action break definitively the 73.50 (S1) <strong>support<\/strong> level and move decisively lower towards the 70.50 (S2) <strong>support<\/strong> <strong>base<\/strong>. Should on the other hand <strong>bulls<\/strong> capitalize on the recent spike, we may see the price action break above the 77.00 (R1) <strong>resistance<\/strong> level and then move higher towards the 80.00 (R2) <strong>resistance<\/strong> level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\">If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at <a href=\"mailto:research_team@ironfx.com\" target=\"_self\">research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><b>Disclaimer:<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As we entered the new year, WTI prices came under significant pressure&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[404,380,403],"class_list":["post-50910","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-oil-market","tag-oil-price","blog-category-commodities","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>WTI sheds more than 9% in first two trading days of 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"WTI sheds more 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