{"id":56625,"date":"2023-02-21T15:10:51","date_gmt":"2023-02-21T13:10:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=56625"},"modified":"2026-02-05T09:26:25","modified_gmt":"2026-02-05T07:26:25","slug":"golds-shine-dampened-by-stronger-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/ru\/golds-shine-dampened-by-stronger-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold\u2019s shine dampened by stronger dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/en\/us-cpi-print-lurking\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>\u0417\u043e\u043b\u043e\u0442\u043e<\/strong> closed in the reds last week<\/a>, pressured by stronger than anticipated <strong>US economic data<\/strong> \u0438 <strong>hawkish<\/strong> <strong>remarks<\/strong> which propped up the <strong>dollar<\/strong> and secured vital inflows, all at the expense of the <strong>bullion<\/strong>. Furthermore, elevated <strong>bond yields<\/strong> provided a more appealing alternative for investors, in contrast to the <strong>non-interest-bearing bullion<\/strong>. This week, fundamentals are expected to take over and <strong>precious metals traders<\/strong> await in patiently for the <strong>Fed\u2019s meeting minutes<\/strong> alongside a slew of crucial financial releases that could give them a glimpse on where the <strong>precious<\/strong> might head towards to next. In this report, we aim to shed light on the catalysts driving the precious metal\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>FOMC meeting minutes are incoming<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In tomorrow\u2019s session, the market is expected to turn its attention towards the latest Fed meeting minutes which could contain further clues on how the central bank is to proceed with its tightening efforts, after last week\u2019s inflation and retail sales data updates. Of critical importance are also the speeches from various Fed speakers who would shed light on how they might vote in the coming interest rate decision alongside their views on where they see the terminal rate being going forward. The dollar rose last week, buoyed by better-than-expected economic data and managed to climb to fresh six-week highs, and gold extended its fall from its 9-month highs due to the negative correlation between the two. More specifically, the latest inflation report showcased that, inflationary pressures, albeit easing, remain much stickier than what the market anticipated and as a consequence provided more support to the Fed\u2019s case that more hikes are needed to bring it under control. Combine that with the highest rise in producers\u2019 prices in seven months, according to the latest PPI results, added more credibility to the case for additional interest rate increases to cool an overheated US economy. Furthermore, another strong retail sales estimate beat, aided the dollars to ascend, as robust consumption levels paired with a resilient employment market run the risk of pumping the inflationary bubble further. That in a sense adds once again more confidence in the central bank\u2019s view to keep hiking rates in order to deter inflationary pressures from becoming deeply entrenched within the US economy. Overall, the prospects for more hikes by the Fed tend to provide support for the greenback but dampen the shiny metal\u2019s appeal in the eyes of investors. Should, therefore, the contents of the latest meeting minutes broadcast <strong>hawkish undertones<\/strong> we would reasonably expect to see <strong>weakness<\/strong> in the <strong>bullion<\/strong> and inflows towards the <strong>dollar<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>PCE and GDP metrics are due out later this week<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking past the <strong>Fed\u2019s meeting minutes<\/strong>, the market\u2019s attention narrows on the final <strong>\u0412\u0412\u041f<\/strong> <strong>estimate<\/strong> for the fourth quarter on Thursday, alongside the US central banks\u2019 favourite inflation metric the core PCE index on Friday. According to estimates, the final <strong>\u0412\u0412\u041f<\/strong> rate for Q4 is expected to match the previous reading of 2.9%, which could bring some weakness to the <strong>US dollar<\/strong> and may in turn provide <strong>support<\/strong> for the <strong>shiny metal<\/strong>, should the actual rate match the expectation. When it comes to the <strong>Core PCE index<\/strong>, the market forecasts that the rate will <strong>ease<\/strong> to 4.3% when compared to the previous reading of 4.4%. Should the actual rate meet the expectations, we may see the <strong>dollar weaken<\/strong> and the <strong>precious<\/strong> being lifted from its recent trough, as the results would practically reaffirm that <strong>inflationary pressures eased<\/strong> further in the month of January and could put more faith in the market\u2019s assessment that the <strong>Fed will slow down<\/strong> its hiking <strong>pace<\/strong>. Nevertheless, should on the other hand, the results <strong>fail to meet expectations<\/strong> and the Core PCE index records an <strong>upside surprise<\/strong>, we may see the <strong>precious<\/strong> <strong>extend<\/strong> its <strong>fall<\/strong> towards levels once seen before in December of 2022, as the <strong>dollar<\/strong> receives inflows. Noteworthy are also the scheduled speeches by the New York Fed President Williams and Atlanta Fed President Bostic tomorrow alongside Fed Board Governor Jefferson and Cleveland Fed President Mester on Friday which could tarnish the <strong>precious<\/strong> should the envoys reiterate their <strong>hawkish<\/strong> narratives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-technical-analysis\"><strong>\u0422\u0435\u0445\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 \u0430\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0437<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>XAUUSD H4 Chart<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"291\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/xau-usd-4h-chart-21-02-2023-technical-analysis.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-56629\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Support: 1820 (S1), 1800 (S2), 1780 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance: 1845 (R1), 1860 (R2), 1845 (R3)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at <strong>XAUUSD<\/strong> 4-hour chart we observe <strong>gold\u2019s<\/strong> price sliding to the lower ground over the past week as the dollar perked up, supported by better-than-expected economic data results. We hold a bearish outlook bias given the formation of a descending channel, which validates the view for the extension towards the downside. Supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our 4-hour chart which failed to move above the 50 levels over the past two sessions and is currently registering a value of 42, showcasing slight bearish sentiment currently surrounding the bullion. Should the bears capitalize on the negative momentum, we may see the price action break below the $1820 (S1) support level and move lower, closer to the $1800 (S2) support base. Should the bulls take over, we may see the break above the upper bound of the <strong>descending channel<\/strong>, the break of the $1845 (R1) <strong>resistance<\/strong> level and the move closer to the $1860 (R2) <strong>resistance<\/strong> <strong>barrier<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disclaimer:<br><em>This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold closed in the reds last week, pressured by stronger than&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[376,355,386,411,780,338],"class_list":["post-56625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-gold","tag-gold-market","tag-gold-price","tag-gold-traders","tag-market-research","tag-technical-analysis","blog-category-metals","blog_tag-gold","blog_tag-gold-market","blog_tag-gold-price","blog_tag-gold-traders","blog_tag-market-research","blog_tag-technical-analysis","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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