![\"US](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/US-UoM-Consumer-Sentiment-1024x614.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nGBP \u2013 Turning toward the EU<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Also GBP could be led by fundamentals in the coming week given the relative empty calendar from UK high impact financial releases. On a monetary level the market\u2019s expectations for BoE continue to be leaning on the hawkish side, given the current expectations for the bank to hike rates in its November meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Such expectations may lend some support to the pound in the coming week should they be maintained or intensify.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On a political level we maintain some worries for UK PM Andy Burnham\u2019s intentions. It\u2019s characteristic that the UK PM open widely the door to the UK possibly rejoining the EU. On a political level UK PM Burnham\u2019s intentions are far wider as in hid Labour Party Conference speech, pledged to give the UK \u201ca new social contract\u201d including social housing, better education and more affordable care for elderly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Overall, should UK PM Burnham actually try to start delivering on his promises, we may see a wider shift to the left of the UK fiscal priorities, which in turn may create uncertainty for pound traders and weigh on the pound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
JPY \u2013 BoJ\u2019s intentions remain key<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
JPY seems about to end the week with some modest losses, yet still in the reds against the USD, for a third week in a row. No major financial releases are on JPY traders\u2019 calendar, maybe with the exception of current account balance and the overtime and cash earnings pay rates for August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hence we turn our attention once again towards deeper fundamentals. Ona monetary policy level, BoJ seems determined, with the exception of two policymakers, to maintain a restrictive, hawkish approach. The substantial beyond-expectations acceleration of Tokyo\u2019s CPI rates for September tends to add more pressure on the bank to tighten its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hence should we see any BoJ policymaker actually signalling a more hawkish approach we may see JPY getting some much needed approach. Yet the bank seems to be facing political pressure to ease its rate hiking path, which tends to intensify doubts for possibly faster rate hikes and weighs on the JPY.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We also note that the continuous weakening of JPY, tends to increase the possibility of a market intervention by BoJ to JPY\u2019s rescue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We mentioned that the common currency may be in a tight spot, yet it seems ready to end another week, deep in the reds against the USD, with the losses reaching 3.5% for the past four weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a macroeconomic level, there are some financial releases of interest, but nothing ground shaking for EUR traders. On a monetary level, the ECB is expected to remain on hold in the October meeting and hike rates again in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yet the acceleration of the HICP rate for the Euro Zone, reaching 3.8%yy is ringing the alarm bells for the ECB to act faster. Currently the interest rate differentials of the US and the Euro Zone seem to remain stable, yet wide to the Fed\u2019s favour. Hence we could see ECB policymakers maintaining a hawkish tone, which in turn may boost the EUR somewhat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a fiscal level, we note that French and Italian bonds have come under pressure and the spread with German Bunds seems to be widening. Hence the added pressure on Southern economies of the Euro Zone could weigh on the common currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Also we note the possibility of political uncertainty in France given that the election campaigns for the next Presidential election is about to begin. Please note that Marine Lepen\u2019s right wing populist National Rally (NR) surged in Sunday\u2019s Senate elections, which underscores the possibility of NR winning also the presidential elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Political dissatisfaction in Europe is evident in many large democracies of the Zone, including Germany and France, and tend to create political uncertainty, which could weigh on the single currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As expected also the Aussie was victimised by a stronger USD in the FX market. On a macro-economic level, the acceleration of the CPI rate, failed to provide substantial support to AUD, yet still adds more pressure on RBA to continue tightening its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Please note that RBA delivered a 25 basis points rate hike as was expected. Yet the release weighed on AUD, as the bank\u2019s forward guidance tended to disappoint Aussie traders, despite actually sounding hawkish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The market currently expects the bank to hike rates again in November and then hold for the year, which could be somewhat supportive for AUD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a deeper fundamental level, we note that the market sentiment is critical for AUD given the market\u2019s perception of a riskier nature as it is a considered a commodity currency. A possible improvement of the market sentiment could push the Aussie higher, while a more cautious approach could weigh on AUD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Loonie seems to be resisting the strengthening of the USD for the week. In the coming week, we highlight the release of Canada\u2019s employment data for September next Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A possibly easing Canadian employment market could weigh on the Loonie, while a more than expected tightening could provide some much needed support for the CAD as it could intensify market expectations for the BoC to tighten its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The bank is currently expected to keep rates unchanged in its October meeting and deliver a rate hike in the December meeting. A possibly tighter than expected Canadian employment market for September could tilt the scale in favour of a rate hike in the market\u2019s perception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On a fundamental level, the tensions in the US-Canadian trade relationships are ongoing and weighing on the Loonie. In a latest development the US ban on Canadian dairy and alcohol came into effect escalating the tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the same time US officials tend to point to an impasse in the negotiations between the two parts. Any further escalation of the tensions in the US-Canadian trade relationships could weigh further on the Loonie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Disclaimer:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD \u2013 Fed\u2019s minutes to be released The USD…<\/p>\n![\"Japan](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Japan-Current-Account-Balance-1024x615.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nEUR \u2013 EUR about to end the week deep in the reds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"Euro](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Euro-Zone-Sentix-index-1024x615.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nAUD \u2013 Market sentiment to lead the Aussie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
CAD \u2013 September\u2019s employment data in focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"Canada](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Canada-Employment-Data-1024x617.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n