{"id":52299,"date":"2023-01-16T09:42:34","date_gmt":"2023-01-16T07:42:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=52299"},"modified":"2025-10-17T09:21:43","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T06:21:43","slug":"monetary-outlook-differentials-continue-to-weaken-usd-and-favor-jpy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/vi\/monetary-outlook-differentials-continue-to-weaken-usd-and-favor-jpy\/","title":{"rendered":"Monetary outlook differentials continue to weaken USD and favor JPY"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The USD continued to weaken against its counterparts on Friday, as market expectations tend to intensify that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate hiking cycle and that interest rates may not go as high as previously expected. The market sentiment tended to get a boost from the slowdown of the US CPI rates for December, while comments made by a number of Fed officials seem to point towards a downshift in rate hikes for the bank\u2019s next meeting. On the flip side, JPY continued to get support reaching a new seven-month high against the USD, as the market expectations are for BoJ to tweak its monetary policy even further towards the hawkish side in its next meeting on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"Monetary outlook differentials continue to weaken USD and favour JPY\" width=\"750\" height=\"422\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Gn1BS6dlW50?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Expectations seem to be concentrating on the possibility of the bank tweaking further its yield curve control policy or even abandoning it altogether. Furthermore, in the FX market, we also note the rise of the Aussie as it tested the psychological level of seventy cents against the USD, a level not seen since the end of August. It should be noted that the reopening of China, rose the expectations for more exports of raw materials towards the red giant, yet also the improved market sentiment, the weakening of the USD and a number of positive financial data from Australia tended to provide the necessary push for AUD. During tomorrow\u2019s Asian session, we highlight the release of China\u2019s GDP rate for Q4 and a possible slowdown could ease the grip of the bulls for the Aussie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>USD\/JPY continued to be on the retreat yesterday breaking the 128.60 (R1) support line now turned to resistance. The pair\u2019s price action tended to stabilize during today\u2019s Asian session, breaking the downward trendline guiding it since the 12<sup>th<\/sup> of January, forcing us to switch our bearish outlook in favor of a sideways movement bias. Yet the RSI indicator is still below the reading of 30, implying a bearish sentiment for USD\/JPY in the market and thus may imply that the stabilization of the pair is temporary. Should the bears take over once again we may see the pair breaking the 126.50 (S1) line and aim for the 124.00 (S2) support level. If the bulls take the lead, USD\/JPY could break the 128.60 (R1) line and aim for the 131.40 (R2) level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AUD\/USD was on the rise yesterday testing the 0.7010 (R1) resistance line, yet corrected lower. We tend to maintain a bullish outlook for the pair as long as the upward trendline guiding it remains intact. Should the buying interest be maintained, we may see AUD\/USD breaking the 0.7010 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 0.7125 (R2) level. Should a selling interest be expressed, we may see AUD\/USD breaking the 0.6900 (S1) support line and aim for the 0.6800 (S2) support base. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-other-highlights-for-the-day\"><strong>Other highlights for the day:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Today in the European session, we note the release of Norway\u2019s trade data for December, and in the American session Canada\u2019s manufacturing sales growth rate for November, while the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland is to begin.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-as-for-the-rest-of-the-week\"><strong>As for the rest of the week:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On Tuesday we get China\u2019s GDP rate for Q4, UK\u2019s employment data for November and Canada\u2019s CPI rate for December. On Wednesday we highlight on the monetary front the release of BoJ\u2019s interest rate decision and as for financial data we get Japan\u2019s machinery orders for November, UK\u2019s CPI rates for December, the US retail sales for December and the Industrial production for the same month. On Thursday we get from Japan the trade data for December, Australia\u2019s employment data for December and from the US the weekly initial jobless claims figure and the Philly Fed Business index for January. On the monetary front, we note the release from Turkey of CBT\u2019s and from Norway Norgesbank\u2019s interest rate decisions. On Friday, we get Japan\u2019s CPI rates for December, UK\u2019s retail sales for December, Sweden\u2019s GDP rate for December and Canada\u2019s retail sales growth rate for November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-usd-jpy-h4-chart\"><strong>USD\/JPY H4 Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"940\" height=\"443\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-58.png\" alt=\"support at one hundred twenty six point five and resistance at one hundred twenty eight point six, direction sideways \" class=\"wp-image-52300\" title=\"usd-jpy-four-hour-chart\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 126.50 (S1), 124.00 (S2), 121.50 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 128.60 (R1), 131.40 (R2), 134.80 (R3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-aud-usd-h4-chart\"><strong>AUD\/USD H4 Chart<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-59.png\" alt=\"support at zero point six nine and resistance at zero point seven zero one, direction upwards \" class=\"wp-image-52301\" width=\"610\" height=\"269\" title=\"aud-usd-four-hour-chart\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 0.6900 (S1), 0.6800 (S2), 0.6630 (S3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 0.7010 (R1), 0.7125 (R2), 0.7265 (R3)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1451\" height=\"354\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-60.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-52302\" title=\"benchmark-16-1-2023\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1054\" height=\"603\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-62.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-52304\" title=\"table-16-1-2023\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1226\" height=\"609\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-61.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-52303\" title=\"morning-releases-16-1-2023\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"translation-block\">If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at <a href=\"mailto:research_team@ironfx.com\" target=\"_self\">research_team@ironfx.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disclaimer:<br>This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The USD continued to weaken against its counterparts on Friday, as market expectations tend to intensify that the Fed is<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52299","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Monetary outlook differentials continue to weaken USD<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The USD continued to weaken 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