Oil prices jump after OPEC+ cuts shake markets

Oil prices maintained the gains made yesterday after the surprise oil production cut announced by the OPEC+ group and are threatening to go even higher, with analysts speculating that the oil price is to reach $95–$100 per barrel by the end of the year. Such a development could support inflationary pressures around the world, forcing central banks to tighten their monetary policy even further which in turn may have an adverse effect on economic activity and even cause a recession. Oil prices may get additional support should the US weekly readings show that the US oil market remains tight, reinforcing oil price momentum. We also note that the market may slowly but steadily start turning its attention towards the demand side of the commodity and the prospect of slowing manufacturing activity may not bode well for the oil price. It should be noted that economic activity in the US has contracted once again, reaching the lowest level post-pandemic according to the ISM manufacturing PMI figure for March, attributing to the weakening of the USD which was marked across the board yesterday. US stock markets were on the rise yesterday, boosted by the rise of oil companies, yet we also note that Tesla’s shares tumbled, as profitability-margin worries overshadowed the record-high car deliveries of the automaker, while WSJ reported that McDonald’s is preparing layoffs as part of a restructuring plan, which under certain circumstances could provide a boost for its share price. We also note that US stock markets may be substantially affected should Fed policymakers actually sound hawkish enough. In the land down under, as was widely expected, RBA remained on hold at 3.6% in an effort to assess the state of the economy and hinted that the cash rate may be reaching its peak in Governor Lowe’s accompanying statement. Also, we highlight the release of RBNZ’s interest rate decision and the bank is expected to proceed with a 25-basis-points rate hike. Should the bank actually deliver the expected rate hike and the decision be accompanied by a hawkish statement, we may see the Kiwi getting some support, especially if oil price volatility influences broader market sentiment.

也受石油公司崛起的提振，昨天美国股市上涨, 我们还注意到Tesla股价暴跌, 因为对盈利能力的担忧掩盖了汽车生产商超记录的汽车交付量, 而华尔街报道称McDonald正准备将裁员作为重组计划的一部分. 在澳大利亚，正如普遍预计的那样，澳联储仍然将利率保持在 3.6% 不变，以试图评估经济状况，并暗示现金利率可能正达到行长 Lowe所附声明中的峰值.

此外, 我们强调新西兰联储的利率决议，预计央行将继续加息25个基点，如果同时也发表鹰派声明，我们可能会看到纽元将获得一些支撑.

今日其他亮点:

Today in the European session, we note the release of Germany’s trade data for February and Eurozone’s PPI rates for the same month. In the American session, we get Canada’s trade data and from the US the factory orders and the JOLTS job openings all being for February, while later on oil traders may be more interested in the release of the API weekly crude oil inventories figure. On the monetary front, we note that BoE MPC member Tenreyro, BoE Chief Economist Pill, Fed Board Governor Cook and Boston Fed President Collins are scheduled to speak. During tomorrow’s Asian session, we note that Cleveland Fed President Mester and RBA Governor Philip Lowe are scheduled to speak.