{"id":109322,"date":"2025-04-29T16:45:46","date_gmt":"2025-04-29T13:45:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=109322"},"modified":"2025-04-29T16:45:47","modified_gmt":"2025-04-29T13:45:47","slug":"gold-outlook-easing-tariff-narrative-weighs-on-golds-price","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/zh\/gold-outlook-easing-tariff-narrative-weighs-on-golds-price\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Easing tariff narrative weighs on gold\u2019s price"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since our last report<\/a>, the rally of gold\u2019s price appears to have eased with the precious metal\u2019s price pulling back from it\u2019s all time high figure. In today\u2019s report we discuss the apparent willingness by the US and China to work on a possible trade deal and we also discuss upcoming US financial releases. We are to conclude the report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart, for a rounder view. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US-China trade relationship on the mend?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Since our last report, the trade war narrative appears to be easing, with the US seemingly willing to proceed to the negotiation table in an attempt to find an amicable trade solution with China. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In particular, the US\u2019s tone on China<\/strong> appears to be softening with US Treasury Secretary Scot Bessent stating last Wednesday that \u201cNeither side believes that these are sustainable levels. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I said yesterday, this is the equivalent of an embargo and a break between the two countries in trade does not suit anyone’s interest<\/strong>\u201d. The comments by the Treasury Secretary showcase a softer tone on China when compared to the tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs that were being imposed on each other almost on a daily basis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, President Trump per Reuters implied that he was in contact with Chinese President Xi Jinping<\/strong>, which may imply that the two nations may have been working together towards an amicable trade deal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, from the Chinese Government\u2019s side that does not appear to be the case with the Chinese Embassy<\/strong> in the US stating that \u201cthere have been no consultations or negotiations between China<\/strong> and the US on the issue of tariffs, let alone any agreement being reached\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although it should also be said that China<\/strong> has excluded some US imports from its 125% tariffs, as reported by Reuters, which on their part may signal a willingness to cooperate with the US. Nonetheless, the easing of tensions may have weighed on gold\u2019s price and thus should trade agreements be struck, resulting in the reduction or elimination of tariffs, it may weigh on gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, should the apparent progress be reversed, it may instead aid the precious metal\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Upcoming US Financial releases<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There are two financial releases<\/strong> we would like to keep an eye out for this week. The first being the Core PCErates<\/strong> for March that are due out for Wednesday, that are expected to come in at 2.6%, which would be lower than the prior rate of 2.8% and thus would imply easing inflationary pressures in the US economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In such a scenario, an easing of inflationary pressures in the US economy may weigh on gold\u2019s price as it is considered to be a hedge against inflation. Secondly, the release of the US Employment data for April on Friday where the NFP figure is expected to come in at 130k, which would be lower than the prior figure of 228k and may thus imply a loosening labour market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it should be noted that the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2% and the Average earnings on a year-on-year basis is expected to increase from 3.8% to 3.9%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, should the NFP figure come in as expected or lower it may weigh on the dollar<\/strong> whilst aiding gold\u2019s price given their inverse relationship, although the impact may be mitigated by the average hourly earnings rate which could provide some support for the greenback<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD 4H Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Gold<\/figure>\n\n\n\n