{"id":109678,"date":"2025-05-06T15:39:16","date_gmt":"2025-05-06T12:39:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=109678"},"modified":"2025-05-06T15:39:17","modified_gmt":"2025-05-06T12:39:17","slug":"gold-outlook-fed-decision-this-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/zh\/gold-outlook-fed-decision-this-week\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: FED Decision this week"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since our last report<\/a>, gold bulls appear to have regained control of the precious metal\u2019s price. In today\u2019s report we are to have a look upcoming interest rate decision by the Fed as well as the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan. For a rounder view we intend to conclude the report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed interest rate decision to occur this week<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Fed\u2019s interest rate decision is set to occur this Wednesday<\/strong>. The majority of market participants are currently anticipating the bank to remain on hold with FFF<\/strong>, implying a 98.1% probability for such a scenario to materialize at the time of this report. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, we turn our attention to the bank\u2019s accompanying statement in addition to Fed Chair Powell\u2019s press conference<\/strong> which is set to occur following the bank\u2019s decision. However, before delving into the possibilities of the narrative which may emerge from the accompanying statement and the press conference, let\u2019s take a look into last week\u2019s financial releases<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specifically, the release of the US Core PCE<\/strong> rates for March, which confirmed the anticipated easing of inflationary pressures in the US economy by coming in at 2.6% and the US Employment data<\/strong> for April, which showcased a stronger than expected labour market when looking at the NFP<\/strong> figure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The two aforementioned financial releases may have eased market worries and in part some of the concerns about a potential resurgence of inflationary pressures in the US economy. Thus, the financial releases may have opened the door for the Fed to adopt a more \u201cdovish\u201d stance, such as implying that they may cut interest rates in the near future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In turn this may weigh on the dollar<\/strong> whilst potentially aiding the precious metal\u2019s price given their inverse relationship. On the other hand, should the bank showcase a willingness to remain on hold, potentially due to the persistent risks of the US\u2019s trade wars<\/strong>, it may have the opposite effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India-Pakistan tensions persist<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tensions between India<\/strong> \u548c Pakistan<\/strong> have been on the rise since the 22 <\/sup> of April, when an attack targeted Hindu<\/strong> tourists<\/strong> in the disputed Kashmir region<\/strong>, which resulted in 26 fatalities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the attack, India accused Pakistan of involvement, saying that two of the three suspected attackers were Pakistani nationals, according to a report by Reuters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Starting with India suspending the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan on the 24\u00a0  <\/sup> of April, to Pakistan holding two missile tests in three days, and India unveiling plans for civil defence drills in several areas starting today. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The increasing tensions between the two nuclear-armed nations have sparked concerns that the situation may escalate to military conflict, which in turn may funnel safe haven inflows into the precious metal\u2019s price given its status as a safe haven asset and thus aid gold\u2019s price. However, should tensions between the two nations ease, it could potentially weigh on gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD 4H Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Gold<\/figure>\n\n\n\n