{"id":86118,"date":"2024-06-18T14:32:10","date_gmt":"2024-06-18T11:32:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=86118"},"modified":"2024-06-18T14:41:14","modified_gmt":"2024-06-18T11:41:14","slug":"gold-outlook-fundamentals-to-lead-golds-price","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfx-id.com\/zh\/gold-outlook-fundamentals-to-lead-golds-price\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Fundamentals to lead gold\u2019s price"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold\u2019s price moved in a sideways manner since last report<\/a>. Today we are to discuss the fundamental challenges laid ahead for the precious metal as well as upcoming financial releases that may affect the direction of its price action. Finally, we will be concluding this report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fed\u2019s stance<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It should be noted that the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision failed to move gold\u2019s price as much as some analysts may have been expecting. The bank as expected remained on hold displaying a data dependence in its accompanying statement, yet the new dot plot in the bank\u2019s economic projections moved higher,\u00a0 implying that Fed policymakers are prepared to keep rates high for longer supporting the USD. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet in his press conference, Fed Chairman Powell stressed once again the bank\u2019s data dependence. We also note that the Fed\u2019s hawkishness was stressed after the release of the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision by Philadelphia Fed President Harker as he stated that “If all of it happens to be as forecasted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think one rate cut would be appropriate by year’s end,” which contradicted the markets expectations for a scenario of two rate cuts, one in September and one in December. Should Fed policymakers continue to release hawkish statements we may see gold\u2019s price slipping in the coming week. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fundamentals to lead<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Overall we see the case for fundamentals to lead gold\u2019s price. We note that the negative correlation of the USD with gold\u2019s price was interrupted in the past week as both the USD index and gold\u2019s price ended the week in the greens. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, we expect the negative correlation of the two trading instruments to be on display once again in the coming week and should we see the USD gaining further support, we may see gold\u2019s price dropping. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At this point, we see the case for safe haven inflows for the USD stemming from the political uncertainty in France, to ease, which may be encouraging for gold traders. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet should we see tensions in the international political scene escalating, we may see the market\u2019s initial reaction could create support for the USD and thus weaken gold\u2019s price. We also note that the drop of US yields in the past week may have been a factor allowing gold\u2019s price to rise. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet as the week began, US yields have started to rise once again and should we see them rising further, US bonds may become a more attractive alternative to gold for investors. Another factor which could affect gold\u2019s price on a fundamental level, would be central bank gold buying, especially from the People’s Bank of China. Should central banks resume their gold buying we may see gold\u2019s price gaining further ground.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Financial releases<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite a possible dominance of fundamentals and the Fed\u2019s monetary policy stance for Gold\u2019s price until our next week, there are still a few US financial releases, which could affect gold\u2019s price. Besides today\u2019s release of the US retail sales and industrial output growth rates for May, we note that on Thursday we are to get a number of data which may increase volatility also for gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We make a start with the release of June\u2019s Philly Fed Business index which is expected to rise and if actually so could weigh somewhat on gold\u2019s price. Also, we note the weekly initial jobless claims figure and a drop is expected after last week\u2019s substantial rise which could weigh somewhat on gold\u2019s price as well, yet a possible additional rise could imply a slack in the US employment market and thus could provide some support for gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6280\u672f\u5206\u6790<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Technical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n