Fed’s April meeting minutes and NVIDIA’s earnings in focus

Markets are focused on the Fed’s April meeting minutes and earnings from NVIDIA, which may shape risk sentiment across USD, equities and commodities.

Traders are also watching Australia employment data, inflation releases, and central bank commentary for clearer direction in FX markets and broader risk appetite.

Fed’s meeting minutes to move the markets

Inflationary pressures and the Fed’s intentions continue to puzzle market participants, and we highlight the release of the Fed’s April meeting minutes in today’s American session.

We may see Fed policymakers like Kansas Fedd President Schmid sounding hawkish while Fed Board Governor Miran may sound dovish yet the interesting issue may be where the balance of power within the Fed is tilting.

Market expectations, are for the Fed to keep rates unchanged until the end of the year and start hiking rates in 2027. Should the minutes reveal hawkish intentions, the USD may gain, while US equities and gold’s price may drop. On the flip side, a possibly dovish tone could weigh on the USD and lift US equities and gold’s price.

Australia’s employment data for rock the Aussie

We highlight in tomorrow’s Asian session, the release of Australia’s employment data for April. The employment change figure is expected to drop slightly and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged.

Should the actual rates and figures show a tightening Australian employment market we may see the Aussie enjoying some support as it would allow for RBA to remain hawkish. Should the data imply a substantially loosening Australian employment market we may see the Aussie losing ground.  

NVIDIA’s earnings release to change the market sentiment

Given the focus of US stock markets on AI technology, we highlight the release of NVIDIA’s earnings report. Market focus is expected to be placed on the EPS and revenue figures, yet the primary role in the market reaction may lie in the company’s forward guidance.

Should the actual EPS and revenue figures exceed market expectations and the release be accompanied by a confident forward guidance, we may see NVIDIA’s share price getting some support, while the market mood may improve, allowing for positive ripple effects in US stock markets.

On the other hand, should the release disappoint traders, we may see NVIDIA’s share price falling and a more cautious approach emerging, weighing on US equities.

本日のその他の注目点

Today we get UK’s CPI rates for April, the Euro Zone’s final HICP rate also for April, while Fed Governor Barr and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey are scheduled to speak and the Fed is to release the minutes of the April meeting. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we get New Zealand’s trade data for April, Australia’s and Japan’s preliminary PMI figures for May and we note that BoJ Board Member Koeda speaks.

Charts to keep an eye out

XAU/USD

ゴールド’s dropped yesterday breaking the 4500 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance.

Given also that the RSI indicator continues to drop nearing the reading of 30, implying an intensifying bearish market sentiment for gold’s price, we switch our bias for a sideways motion in favour of a bearish outlook.

Should the bears remain in charge, we may see gold’s price aiming if not breaking the 4250 (S1) support line. Should the bulls take over, we may see gold’s price breaking the 4500 (R1) resistance line and start aiming if not breaching the 4850 (R2) resistance level.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD’s price dropped yesterday breaking the 0.7110 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. We see the breaking as temporary given that it’s not accompanied also by the relevant bearish market sentiment for the pair.

We would feel more comfortable toc switch our sideways motion bias in favour of a bearish outlook, if there was further bearish movement during today’s session.

Should the bears take over, we may see AUD/USD’s price aiming for the 0.6944 (S1) support line. Should the bulls be in charge over AUD/USD’s direction, we may see the pair reversing course breaking the 0.7110 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 0.7280 (R1) resistance line.

XAU/USD Daily Chart

• Support: 4250 (S1), 3890 (S2), 3600 (S3)
• Resistance: 4500 (R1), 4850 (R2), 5260 (R3) 

AUD/USD デイリーチャート

• Support: 0.6940 (S1), 0.6800 (S2), 0.6620 (S3)
• Resistance: 0.7110 (R1), 0.7280 (R2), 0.7455 (R3) 

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